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Beth Stanton

@bethstanton.bsky.social

3K followers 310 following 250 posts

Bloomberg News editor for US interest rates. Monitoring Treasuries, futures, TIPS since 1997. Daily posts on US Treasury market on the former bird site (beth_stanton) since June 2020. Opinions mine.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · Aug 4

We sent some headlines last week

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 15h

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by as much as 3bp, curve flatter. Auction cycle continues with $39b 10Y reopening (2nd) at 1pm. WI yield 4.10% is between last two 10Y results and ~7bp higher than last month's. New 3Y yield is just below Tuesday's 3.576% auction result.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 1d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-2bp near session highs. Curve steeper. October auctions begin with $58b 3Y new issue at 1pm. WI yield 3.62% is between last two 3Y auction results & about 13bp higher than last month's. Buyback of up to $2b in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm.

Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 2d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by as much as 4bp with curve steeper, amid bigger, politically-driven steepening of Japanese & French yield curves. Auctions ahead this week (unaffected by shutdown): $58b 3Y new issue Tues, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (2nd) Weds & Thurs.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 5d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed, curve slightly flatter. Day 3 of US government shutdown to prevent release of September jobs report. Auctions ahead next week (unaffected by shutdown): $58b 3Y new issue Tues, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (2nd) Weds & Thurs.

Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 6d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with yield curve flatter. Sizes of next week's auctions (unaffected by US government shutdown) TBA at 11am: $58b 3Y new issue, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (2nd) projected. Buyback of up to $2b in 20Y-30Y sector closes at 2pm.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 7d

#TreasuriesToday: Happy Fiscal New Year! Yields lower by 1bp-3bp, led by 5Y, inside yday's ranges. Buyback of up to $4b in 3Y-5Y sector closes at 2pm. September index return 0.9%, YTD 5.4%. Coupon auctions (unaffected by US government shutdown) resume Oct. 7.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 8d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed, with curve steeper, off session lows including lowest 30Y since Sept. 18. Month-end Treasury index rebalancing at 4pm to extend its duration by an estimated 0.06yr. Coupon auctions resume Oct. 7.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 9d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 2bp-3bp inside last week's ranges, paced by European bond markets. Ahead this week: Tuesday's month-end index rebalancing to extend duration by an estimated 0.06yr. Coupon auctions resume Oct. 7.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 10d

And now for something completely different, of a personal nature, regarding diet and health

I welcome comments, particularly any that fill information gaps.

medium.com/@bethstanton...

Sugar High

A surprise encounter with prediabetes

medium.com

Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 16d

#TreasuriesToday will return Sept. 29, rested and ready. Peace

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 20d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 3bp-4bp inside yesterday's ranges, which included lowest 10Y since April 7 (3.99%). $19b 10Y TIPS reopening at 1pm has yield near 1.65%, lower than last five 10Y TIPS auction results. Buyback of up to $2b in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 21d

No and maybe?

Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 21d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by less than 3bp with curve flatter. 30Y (4.62%) lowest since April 30, shorter maturities at weekly lows. 20Y reopening is ~2bp rich to Tuesday's auction stop. Ahead of expected 25bp Fed rate cut, swaps price in about 70bp of easing by year-end.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 22d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed in tiny daily ranges (2.3bp for 10Y). $13b 20Y reopening (1st) at 1pm (a day earlier than normal to avoid coinciding with FOMC rate decision). WI yield near 4.63% is close to March auction result, which was lowest since October 2024.

Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 23d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with curve steeper. $119b coupon settlement ($78b net). Ahead this week: $13b 20Y reopening (1st) Tues (day earlier than normal to avoid coinciding with FOMC decision), $19b 10Y TIPS reopening (also 1st) Thurs.

Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 26d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields slightly higher inside yday's rally ranges, which included sub-4% 10Y & 5Y within 1bp of YTD low. Ahead next week: $13b 20Y reopening (1st) Tues (day earlier than normal to avoid coinciding with FOMC decision), $19b 10Y TIPS reopening Thurs.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 27d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed. $22b 30Y reopening (1st) at 1pm. WI yield near 4.70% is lower than 30Y auction results since March. Next week's auction sizes at 11am: $13b 20Y reopening (1st), $19b 10Y TIPS reopening projected.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 28d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with curve steeper. Auction cycle continues with $39b 10Y reopening (1st) at 1pm. WI yield near 4.10% is lower than 10Y auction results since Oct 2024. Buyback of up to $2b in 20Y-30Y sector closes at 2pm.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 29d

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 2bp-3bp inside Monday's ranges, which included lowest 10Y since April, 30Y since May. September auctions begin with $58b 3Y new issue at 1pm. WI yield 3.47% is lower than 3Y auction results since September 2024.

Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · Sep 8

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed inside Friday's ranges, which included lowest 2Y-10Y since early-April YTD lows. 30Y under 200-day average breached Friday. Ahead this week: $58b 3Y new issue Tues, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (1st) Weds & Thurs.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · Sep 5

We sent some headlines today

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · Sep 5

#TreasuriesToday (delayed by events): Even before weak August jobs report, 2Y yield fell to lowest since April. Subsequently it came within 4bp of its YTD low (3.43% on April 7). Ahead next week: $58b 3Y new issue Tues, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (1st) Weds & Thurs.

Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · Sep 4

#TreasuriesToday: Yields richer by 2bp-3bp near session lows including lowest 2Y since early May, 5Y since April, 10Y since Aug. 5 & 30Y since Aug. 22. Next week's auction sizes at 11am: $58b 3Y new issue, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (1st) projected.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · Sep 3

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by less than 2bp inside Tuesday's ranges, off session highs, amid gains for stock index futures & oil price drop. Another heavy corporate new-issue calendar is expected to follow Tuesday's near-record $43b haul by 27 borrowers.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · Sep 2

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 4bp-6bp, paced by UK bond market where 30Y is highest since 1998. Typical post-Labor Day corporate new-issue surge is anticipated, while Treasury coupon auctions are on hiatus until Sept. 9. August index return 1.1%, YTD 4.5%.

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