This feels like a ‘4D Chess’ wishful thinking argument but unless reform start to take traditional Tory seats there really won’t be any long term impact.

Ouch. No punches pulled there.

I suppose at least the bus that Labour Senedd candidates appear to have been thrown under will be a franchised one…

Agree, and that was my point really - no party is likely to get a huge majority in the system so the bigger pool argument for Senedd reform was an odd one. Strong arguments for more scrutiny seats of course.

That assumes a fully integrated coalition though, where both parties make up the pool of ministerial candidates. In practice a confidence and supply or junior/senior partnership is more likely isn’t it?

I appreciate the point, I do, and am clear on our national context. But I find it hard to settle with a Welsh MP promoting a contrary policy view to a Welsh MS - for the same constituency. If it really is Westminster loyalty vs C.Bay loyalty?

You can see, I hope, how it seems disjointed to voters

If my Lab MSs and Lab MP vote differently on something fundamental, that does paint a confusing picture. This is not the same as governments disagreeing, of course.

Yes, but the MPs and MSs represent the same part. Is the justification for them having different priorities that they disagree individually, politically, in that their focus is somehow ‘different’?

I just can’t see how an argument that two representatives, elected by the same people, in the same party, taking opposing positions on important policies is a positive.

Turnout will be interesting here.

Fair to assume the 7.7% to Plaid and 2.7% to Green are part of the Labour drain? Interesting that the Independent candidate didn’t pick up any.

* obviously it means late (temp) residency in Wales and giving up the MP seat if he does, but possibly worth it?

Another brilliant pod. Bear with, but were I Farage I would put myself on the bottom of a list in a consistency (still not declaring a leader).

This would allow more interventions, bolstering campaign. Plus if Ref did get largest party he can get those above in list to resign so he can be FM. *

I think the LDs outcome will depend entirely on how the media treat them. If the choice is portrayed as Lab vs Plaid or Reform then they’re sunk. If it’s seen as multi party (which will depend a lot on whether Con are part of the narrative) they may well get some Unionist-Left but not Lab people.

Agree it’s been better in many ways, but the remote thing should have been a way of spreading jobs more across Wales. Instead most are still in the CCR. (Some N Wales bias here, on my end).

In almost all cases RTO is only really a way of pushing headcount reductions. WG’s people strategy has never really worked for the whole of Wales.

Remote work was clearly the biggest Levelling Up opportunity but there are lots who benefit directly from agglomeration. We have remote worked baked in to Welsh strategies, and a town centres crisis, but even then have fallen back on trying to get more people commuting to cities.

If @newwales.bsky.social fancies a go I’d be happy to help where I can :)