Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 3h

After repeated poor behavior by one of our lead market makers, we made the business decision to sponsor a designated market maker to improve trading b/c for us, the most important priority is fairness to our clients regardless of their size.

www.nyse.com/market-model

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 5h

Tariffs cause inflation.

Forget the tortured analyses desperately trying to prove a political point. Just look at the damn data.

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 11h

Tariffs Quiet Tax On Households

Tariff collections are up 1% of GDP and US households are footing most of the bill. With labor markets softening, the stealth tax hike is squeezing household's spending at an already challenging time.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/tariffs-qu...

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 1d

Liquidity is one of the most common concerns folks raise about investing in early stage ETFs. Unlike single stocks, ETF liquidity is much more driven by the underlying securities than the trading in the ETF itself.

unlimitedfunds.com/whats-under-...

What’s Under the Hood? What Matters for ETF Liquidity - Unlimited Funds

Understanding the liquidity of an individual stock, bond, or futures contract is...

unlimitedfunds.com

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 1d

The reinstatement of healthcare subsidies now being discussed would remove most growth drags from the BBB and add a couple tenths to growth in the next year or two. A boost but not nearly enough to offset other negative growth policies in place.

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 1d

Japan’s New PM Won’t Change Much

Markets cheered Takaichi’s win, but there are few signs that the new PM's policy agenda will be anything more than an anemic effort to support growth, another in a long line of forgotten past leaders.

open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 2d

Last chance to sign up for MoneyShow Orlando to catch an incredible agenda of speakers across a wide range of investment approaches. Not to be missed!

orlando.moneyshow.com?scode=066034

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 2d

In this blackout period we have to look to other data sources to keep track of the economy.

Notable in that context that the Chase Consumer Card spending data for September was the weakest in years, sharply decelerating from the strength this summer.

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 2d

Tracking the Economy in Data Darkness

With the shutdown halting reports, investors must rely on other data. Early signals of further softening in hiring and slowing spending hint the economy may be weakening just as visibility vanishes.

open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 3d

Modestly hawkish hold from the RBA's Bullock this week, consistent with the view that the economy is quickly responding to the easing so far.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/getting-a-...

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 3d

More incremental data this week highlighting the European sweet spot of low inflation and low unemployment all the while expectations remain very subdued. One might think, the exact opposite to the US.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 4d

Many datapoints this week highlighting renewed weakness for the Japanese economy.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-bojs-h...

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 4d

Nope, can't imagine paying those fees (or even higher with pass throughs!) when there are low cost & liquid manager diversified products for many of these HF styles.

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 4d

Opened this to everyone as my free post of the week on the blog app for those interested.

bsky.app/profile/bobe...

Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 9d

Strong HH Demand, But Is It Sustainable?

Recent data shows a spending surge, but without it translating to a pickup in hiring or wages, keeping consumption at this pace will require a rapid fall in savings ahead given weak income growth.

open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 5d

Still mostly a mega-cap tech / AI story driving the market higher in recent months.

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 5d

AI Investment Nears Peak Growth Impact

AI capex has added over 1% to GDP growth in 1H25, but hyperscalers plans to slow spending growth ahead suggests AI’s recent economic boost will likely also slow ahead.

open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 6d

Regular season stumbles now quickly forgotten with some postseason success. Go Tigers!

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 6d

Playing defense well can be one of the most effective approaches to generating consistent returns over time. Here the VettaFi team looks at the drivers of Equity Long/Short performance over time:

etfdb.com/portfolio-st...

The Benefits of Diversified Equity Long/Short Exposure

Equity long/short strategies appeal to investors wanting to diversify their equity portfolios while seeking outperformance potential.

etfdb.com

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 6d

Hiring rate is back to cycle lows through Aug, and the ADP data suggests even weaker for Sept.

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 6d

Breaking Down The Spending Surge

The recent surge in HH demand has been far above anemic income growth, but more interesting is how extraordinary the reported data has been across a wide range of categories.

open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 7d

Lowering fees and raising target returns is one of the most efficient ways for a hedge fund strategies to increase diversification benefits for a portfolio. Replication gives the flexibility to do just that in contrast to direct LP investments.

etfdb.com/portfolio-st...

Unlimited’s Elliott on Differentiated Hedge Fund ETFs

Advisors and investors seeking to expand their portfolio's alternatives sleeve shouldn't overlook the hedge fund ETF suite from Unlimited.

etfdb.com

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 7d

Between ADP and Paychex we've timely coverage of 25% of the US private sector. Sugar coat it all you want, the US labor market is clearly sucking wind.

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 7d

The pain trade for most investors is a rally in gold and bonds from here.

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 7d

A long-held macro long-held rule of thumb is US government shutdowns don’t really matter. While going against such rules always warrants caution, there are some good reasons why this time may be different. Free for everyone to read on Shutdown Day:

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/shutdown-r...

Shutdown Risks Bigger Economic Bite

Markets usually shrug off shutdowns, but this time the admin is signaling plans to use it for permanent job and program cuts, creating risks of a lasting drag on growth.

bobeunlimited.substack.com

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 7d

Weak Hiring Clouds Demand Outlook

With payroll growth near zero and most hiring indicators soft, labor markets remain weak. Without a pickup, the demand surge risks fading, leaving market hopes for strong demand on shaky ground.

open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

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