$RH: Some thoughts on everyone's favourite premium furniture company... brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/rh-the-uni...

Haven't written about it in depth, but Jet2 reaction looks seriously overdone here. Results were great with oodles of free cashflow....

Recently I wrote a new piece on my substack blog on Tullow Oil. Now, Ghana sources show that its main field, Jubilee continued to decline in May 2025 to only 61kbd of oil with fewer cargoes lifted brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/tullow-oil...

No one discussing how the US strikes on Iran (and to a lesser extent the Israeli ones preceding them) further open the Overton Window for China to take Taiwan. International rules based system is circling the drain. We are back in the mid 19th century.

Zombie company Tullow Oil #TLW.L has staged an oil price spike share price rally of late...However the end destination remains the same: debt restructuring and likely massive equity dilution - new note here: brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/tullow-oil...

Once again, and despite the after hours squeeze, the $RH earnings call is a Gary led car crash. Higher member discount and yet punchy ebitda margin target. Its all smoke and mirrors. Meanwhile the net debt sits on them, toadlike...

So to read the last weeks trading correctly, bullshit mythical pipedream dependent stonks are revelling in the deepening economic crisis, while companies with actual, real earnings and sound business models are seeing their stock price shrink...yup. makes sense.

He is really out of it, isn't he (Elon...)

So #Tullowoil & #KOS saw gross production at their Jubilee field fall below 80,000 barrels a day in December, continuing a steady declining trend since mid 2024 according to recently published stats. Meanwhile the TEN field has slipped further to 17500 barrels a day. The 2025 guide may be tough.

Why Taiwan risk is underestimated: from Krugman's recent substack post:

I see Saqib Karim of Ezi-Floor fame and a senior manager at Victoria has been buying up Victoria PLC shares, despite the dissonance of Victoria exiting the audit-flagged sister co Hanover Flooring (which his brother ran). Value investor or pumping into year end? @bondhack.bsky.social

A few thoughts on Tullow Oil #tullowoil and its ICC case that I wrote in most part before this past afternoon's announcement apparently soliciting a bid from $KOS #kosmos brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/tullow-oil...

So the #TullowOil CEO resigned. Only days after a trading update. And before an upcoming refi and year end trading statements. Draw your own conclusions. Best guess is that Jubilee production down another 2-3kbd from September's 84kbd in October. Doesn't augur well for year end and '25 guide

I see that #VCP #Victoriaplc has quietly disposed of Hanover Flooring in what is a shockingly bad interim report.... I wonder how much it was written down before the loss on sale...

The laundry list at #VISTRY #VTY is long. Questionable inventory accounting, rising DSOs, aggressive revenue/margin recognition and a boss that owns a profitable housebuilder on the side with much higher margins than Vistry....We are so far at profit warning number 2.....

I've been looking at #VTY #VISTRY for a while given the accounting question marks and possible conflicts of its CEO...Seems the Sunday Times have saved me part of the bother of publishing on it: www.thetimes.com/business-mon...

#Victoriaplc #VCP Continues to gurgle down the plughole on no news. Share price behaving as if a massive dilution or debt to equity swap ahead, or even going into administration...See my earlier notes on substack: brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/uk-short-r...

Below snip from @librariancapital.bsky.social helps to explain why #Vistry, #VTY is in such a mess. That and countless other red flags. The recent investors chronicle report also an eye opener: www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/7424...

First post! $MSTR was up over 30% yesterday, as #btc ramped 10%. Most closed ended funds trade at a discount to NAV. $MSTR trades at a premium of 250% to its btc holdings...and outperforms because it can use its premium to buy btc cheaply...thereby justifying its premium (!)..until it can't...