Incidentally, I played backgammon with a friend yesterday, and there's a game that exemplifies how throwing away little scraps of EV can add up to pure ruin.

Thank you, great start, wow!

I imagine I will be surprised by how much EV is gained over random, because I don't guess it's much.

The first player goes in and is 50% to find his card. If he fails, they can stop (except they won't know he failed).

Then the next guy goes in, not knowing if the first guy succeeded, and is 50% to find his card, etc.

How is it not that simple?

I'm no genius, but if players can't communicate known cards, I don't see how they could have any influence to do better than 50%.

I can't wait to hear the result, I guess.