My chaos take designed in a lab for @nauerbach.com @mrjoshuaperry.bsky.social

Miami-Notre Dame shouldn’t even be a debate if Alabama loses. Miami should be in. The debate should be between ND, a team that plays a watered down (5-1 in 6 games) ACC schedule and has 0 wins against a CFP team, and Texas, which was 6-2 in a full SEC schedule and was 2-2 in games against CFP teams.

So 11/12 spots go to conference champions automatically: one for highest G5 school/the other for next highest ranked champion. So that would go to UVA if they win the ACC or likely JMU if Duke wins. Texas would need to move to 10 (basically impossible but this would be the scenario, like <0.5% odds)

Yes, they’ll be the highest ranked Group of 5 team that is a conference champion so they will slot into the playoff automatically.

5/ That’s compelling enough to me, but if Ohio State beats Indiana - and if it is more than 9 points - Texas would have the only loss to Ohio State by single digits all season, and that game was in Columbus.

Put Texas in over Notre Dame at 10!

4/ Notre Dame 10-2, Texas 9-3.

-Against playoff teams: ND 0-2, Texas 2-2
-Strength of schedule: Texas #8, ND #42
-Strength of record: Texas #12, ND #13
-Common opponent: A&M (Texas won, ND lost)

3/ So then you move Notre Dame, Miami, and Texas into 9/10/11 in some order, BYU and Alabama behind them. The ND-Miami head to head should come into play (finally), move Miami into 9. Then compare Notre Dame and Texas!

2/ Then: Alabama needs to lose the SEC championship by a big margin as Texas lost to Georgia. Then:

-Both have 1 bad loss (Florida, Florida State)
-Both would have lost to Georgia badly
-Both have 2 top 15 wins (Vanderbilt for both, A&M for Texas, Georgia for Alabama)
-OU: Texas won, Alabama lost