@bundboy.bsky.social
Macro PM who is probs only ever gonna be a reply guy.
And it started with monster qe from Draghi.
August 6, 2025 at 7:01 PM
And it started with monster qe from Draghi.
Ah but the Trump situation was very funny for the first couple of months as everyone just wrote him off. 16 was just so stark with Brexit and Trump
August 6, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Ah but the Trump situation was very funny for the first couple of months as everyone just wrote him off. 16 was just so stark with Brexit and Trump
I would have said 2015 rather than 14?
August 6, 2025 at 6:55 PM
I would have said 2015 rather than 14?
Yeah but who else is going to underwrite the gilt market? Lots of gilts need to be financed and you don’t have enough domestic savers
July 2, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Yeah but who else is going to underwrite the gilt market? Lots of gilts need to be financed and you don’t have enough domestic savers
PM needs to get in front of a camera and back the chancellor. Market at the moment trying to get ahead of a change in chancellor and abandonment of the fiscal rules
July 2, 2025 at 2:29 PM
PM needs to get in front of a camera and back the chancellor. Market at the moment trying to get ahead of a change in chancellor and abandonment of the fiscal rules
ECB sort of the same. Better to behind the curve than in front of it…..central banks always fighting the last war….
June 19, 2025 at 12:38 PM
ECB sort of the same. Better to behind the curve than in front of it…..central banks always fighting the last war….
I just like anything you do like a anxious parent or priest
May 27, 2025 at 10:45 PM
I just like anything you do like a anxious parent or priest
Asset managers want to run large treasury futures positions rather than own cash treasuries. Hedge fund supplies these. It should be noted that the bond basis trade is actually two trades. It is a CTD vs the future trade and then the CTD vs the off the run trade. Which nets to futures vs off the run
April 27, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Asset managers want to run large treasury futures positions rather than own cash treasuries. Hedge fund supplies these. It should be noted that the bond basis trade is actually two trades. It is a CTD vs the future trade and then the CTD vs the off the run trade. Which nets to futures vs off the run
The trade exists for hedge funds primarily due to bank regs making it too expensive to run on bank balance sheets. Prior to 13/14 most of the bond basis trade sat on bank balance sheets. The trade exists in general because of leverage demand from asset managers which is supplied by hedge funds.
April 27, 2025 at 9:26 AM
The trade exists for hedge funds primarily due to bank regs making it too expensive to run on bank balance sheets. Prior to 13/14 most of the bond basis trade sat on bank balance sheets. The trade exists in general because of leverage demand from asset managers which is supplied by hedge funds.
It’s not the basis guys so far but if this continues margin is gonna up and maybe it’s ok but maybe it’s not. The off the run vs on the run index is the one to keep an eye on
April 9, 2025 at 5:49 AM
It’s not the basis guys so far but if this continues margin is gonna up and maybe it’s ok but maybe it’s not. The off the run vs on the run index is the one to keep an eye on
China own across the curve actually. But you’re right they generally don’t sell cash initially. What they do is sell the futures contract and repo the bond, basically enter a long basis trade. They then unwind the package upon delivery. It’s pretty sophisticated tbh
April 8, 2025 at 7:45 PM
China own across the curve actually. But you’re right they generally don’t sell cash initially. What they do is sell the futures contract and repo the bond, basically enter a long basis trade. They then unwind the package upon delivery. It’s pretty sophisticated tbh
Short vol and delta
April 7, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Short vol and delta
Credit always takes a while to get going. Kind of like the titanic. Colour from chats is that CTAs derisking index products while cash beginning to drip onto dealer balance sheets. Last few days will be painful with 5yr rates unch basically and spreads wider. Might be closing time for credit guys…
April 7, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Credit always takes a while to get going. Kind of like the titanic. Colour from chats is that CTAs derisking index products while cash beginning to drip onto dealer balance sheets. Last few days will be painful with 5yr rates unch basically and spreads wider. Might be closing time for credit guys…
If Treasuries start pricing that in, it’s basically all bets are off globally. Even a sniff of that would rock every asset class. This might be famous last words, but even they can’t be reckless/stupid enough to allow even the smallest chance priced.
February 18, 2025 at 11:21 PM
If Treasuries start pricing that in, it’s basically all bets are off globally. Even a sniff of that would rock every asset class. This might be famous last words, but even they can’t be reckless/stupid enough to allow even the smallest chance priced.
I mean they are ultimately the DMOs customer so I think their opinion does matter to some degree?
February 13, 2025 at 7:14 PM
I mean they are ultimately the DMOs customer so I think their opinion does matter to some degree?
It’s oil, that’s really what they mean. A spike in oil prices.
December 9, 2024 at 6:50 PM
It’s oil, that’s really what they mean. A spike in oil prices.
Yeah I saw, Lehman Sisters strike again with impeccable timing
November 27, 2024 at 9:36 AM
Yeah I saw, Lehman Sisters strike again with impeccable timing
Yeah I think that’s fair. I think 50s were always going to be a stretch but her argument on it being a mistake to cut below neutral if inflation is sticky below target is a mistake and she totally discounts the possibility of a recession.
November 27, 2024 at 9:27 AM
Yeah I think that’s fair. I think 50s were always going to be a stretch but her argument on it being a mistake to cut below neutral if inflation is sticky below target is a mistake and she totally discounts the possibility of a recession.
I thought some of her points were outlandish. The construction of core means that there is already deflation baked in for next year. Feels like with a combination of fiscal tightening and a ECB behind the curve we are in for a recession in q1/q2
November 27, 2024 at 9:17 AM
I thought some of her points were outlandish. The construction of core means that there is already deflation baked in for next year. Feels like with a combination of fiscal tightening and a ECB behind the curve we are in for a recession in q1/q2
I don’t think that’s true on the other place though?
November 26, 2024 at 9:58 PM
I don’t think that’s true on the other place though?
There is too much capital already vs what they can deploy in terms of strategies and PMs. And the other factor is that MS allocations have grown substantially through performance and allocation. In short the established MS don’t really want the capital,And the allocators don’t want to give any more
November 19, 2024 at 3:21 PM
There is too much capital already vs what they can deploy in terms of strategies and PMs. And the other factor is that MS allocations have grown substantially through performance and allocation. In short the established MS don’t really want the capital,And the allocators don’t want to give any more