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Brian

@bwnash.bsky.social

580 followers 280 following 2.4K posts

Hiking, fitness, cooking, Japanese metal, and Braves baseball. DevOps in finance by trade.

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Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 53m

I liked it far better when college wasn't the corporate farm league, and I wasn't surrounded by so many barely-literate coworkers.

Ned Hartley @nedhartley.com · 20h

People shouldn't study rip off degrees like English, all you do is get to explore the towering beauty of the human spirit, how is that going help you slog away at a job you hate, working for vicious idiots until you die?

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 1h

He thought you said "Better O-line.".

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 11h

Another thing they're doing is, Nvidia has a stable of data center companies. They sell GPUs, lease them back to Nvidia, use that leaseback contract as collateral to borrow money from private credit, all to buy more GPUs. Nvidia is doing that with half a dozen major data center companies.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 11h

Had to work late tonight. Little bitty potato was hands-off in the toaster oven. The little sirloin (6 oz before paying the meat tax to my dogs) only took 90 seconds a side, then resting time. Mustard-tarragon sauce (informally called "panty-peeler sauce" around here) only takes an instant.

Small center-cut sirloin cooked medium rare with mustard-tarragon sauce and a tiny baked red potato with sour cream on a white dinner plate.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 12h

Yes, brand new $10b in debt, just a few weeks ago. Just think about that... nearly $650b in coupon annually for 3 years for a company losing $24 for every $1 in revenue. At least OoenAI is only losing sbout $3 for $1 currently.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 12h

I'll read it after I get off work. Was taking a break before I go back on at 7pm EST.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 13h

I got very interested in data center economics a few weeks ago and decided to try to run some of it to ground, is where all this comes from.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 13h

Of all the data center funding, a little less than half comes from the hyperscalers' operating capital and free cashflow. The other half+ comes from private credit. The only major bank loan I know is JPM with $9b for Stargate Abilene. PIMCO credit has a $29b loan for META Louisiana.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 13h

Well, he actually did two raises. There was $5b in debt in the spring, then he did a second raise of $10.5b just recently.

I looked at holdings for some loan participation funds and found the offerings. Both 12.5% coupon for 3 years, that was the max length anyone would write, apparently.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 13h

Just glad it's finally possible to have good performance without overweighting tech for a change.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 13h

Oh, I'll be watching their filings carefully to see how they manage it. I do know xAI is paying 12.5% on the $15.5b in debt it raised this year.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 13h

The damned thing about it is, Newton got rich from his initial investment, and cashed out. The problem came when he went back to the well with everything he'd made plus his principal.

Position sizing, people. Classic mistake.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 13h

Don't even think about whining for a bailout when this stupid shit falls apart. I'll fucking go hunting.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 14h

Tech companies are now humanity's enemy.

You know every messaging, mail, and communications app made by any of them has backdoors built in for the Icestapo, along with AI agents scanning everything you write for thoughtcrime to report to the Ministry of Love.

migrantinsider.com/p/scoop-appl...

SCOOP: Apple Quietly Made ICE Agents a Protected Class

Internal emails show tech giant used anti-hate-speech rules meant for minorities to block an app documenting immigration enforcement.

migrantinsider.com

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 15h

Wondering about the GS Profitless Tech basket now. Don't know the ticker/index, though.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 15h

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 15h

That is a damn good choice.

It's a deep cut, but I really mean it: I'm going to say Eusebius.

Just flat-out forged chunks of Josephus. Pure political propagandist for the psychopath Constantine.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 15h

Just following orders. Of course...

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 16h

The bulk of the paper from all this data center private credit lending is held by insurance companies.

Morons reaching for yield, a story as old as debt markets.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 16h

Just, don't purchase anything non-essential. Most especially, don't give a dime to humanity's mortal enemies, the tech companies.

Burn it all to the fucking ground and piss on the ashes.

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 16h

But the 3 key words seem to be, "Daddy, I'm hungry."

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 17h

It reminds me of the idiotic ads you used to find in financial trade rags in the 90s selling a sure-thing options trading system. If you had a profitable system, why would you ever sell it?

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 17h

No one has ever answered this: If you could build a superintelligence, why not build it in secret, and reap all the profits from the perfect forex trading system it builds, the greatest movie script, video game, or idoru it creates without letting anyone arbitrage or replicate your success?

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 18h

Because they believe in privatizing profits while they socialize the expenses.

Scott Immordino @scottimmordino.bsky.social · 20h

Bill Gates: $106B | Microsoft: $3.9T
Jeff Bezos: $232.5B | Amazon: $2.3T
Larry Page: $204.2B | Google: $2.84T
Mark Zuckerberg: $243.5B | Meta: $1.8T

Can someone please explain why on earth we’re paying the power & water bills for their data centers?

Brian @bwnash.bsky.social · 20h

Private credit is primarily funded by insurance companies, foundations/endowments and sovereign wealth funds who buy private credit paper.

Idiots chasing yield... a story as old as time. That's what drove so much of the CDO/SPV frenzy of 2006-08.