Callie Cox
@calliecox.bsky.social
🤓 Your resident market nerd 💙 Author of OptimistiCallie 👉 https://www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
The unemployment rate moved higher in September, mainly because people permanently lost their jobs.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
November 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
The unemployment rate moved higher in September, mainly because people permanently lost their jobs.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
🔭 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔭
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
November 17, 2025 at 6:05 PM
🔭 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔭
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
November 10, 2025 at 4:53 PM
🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
😵💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵💫
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
November 3, 2025 at 5:53 PM
😵💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵💫
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
October 27, 2025 at 6:15 PM
MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
October 27, 2025 at 3:30 PM
🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
October 20, 2025 at 12:45 PM
🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
🎂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎂
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
October 13, 2025 at 1:17 PM
🎂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎂
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
October 6, 2025 at 1:49 PM
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
October 6, 2025 at 1:45 PM
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
The S&P 500's average year vs. its five best and worst years.
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
October 5, 2025 at 10:21 PM
The S&P 500's average year vs. its five best and worst years.
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
JOLTS:
Hiring rate: 3.2%, matching the lowest since 2020
Firing/separations rate: also 3.2%, at a 12-year low
Quits rate: 1.9%, lowest since COVID and historically low
Hiring rate: 3.2%, matching the lowest since 2020
Firing/separations rate: also 3.2%, at a 12-year low
Quits rate: 1.9%, lowest since COVID and historically low
September 30, 2025 at 3:25 PM
JOLTS:
Hiring rate: 3.2%, matching the lowest since 2020
Firing/separations rate: also 3.2%, at a 12-year low
Quits rate: 1.9%, lowest since COVID and historically low
Hiring rate: 3.2%, matching the lowest since 2020
Firing/separations rate: also 3.2%, at a 12-year low
Quits rate: 1.9%, lowest since COVID and historically low
All around bad data dump for the job market this morning:
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
September 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
All around bad data dump for the job market this morning:
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
🛑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🛑
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
September 29, 2025 at 1:01 PM
🛑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🛑
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
What you need to know about government shutdowns, with the next one (maybe) 53 hours away, eek!
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
September 28, 2025 at 10:58 PM
What you need to know about government shutdowns, with the next one (maybe) 53 hours away, eek!
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
🏡 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏡
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...
September 23, 2025 at 11:23 AM
🏡 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏡
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...
🫵 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🫵
Why you should stop sitting on your hands & invest RIGHT NOW
Reason 1: You can't rely on wages alone to help you build wealth
Climbing the corporate ladder hasn't worked since the 1970s
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-you-sh...
Why you should stop sitting on your hands & invest RIGHT NOW
Reason 1: You can't rely on wages alone to help you build wealth
Climbing the corporate ladder hasn't worked since the 1970s
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-you-sh...
September 16, 2025 at 12:18 PM
🫵 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🫵
Why you should stop sitting on your hands & invest RIGHT NOW
Reason 1: You can't rely on wages alone to help you build wealth
Climbing the corporate ladder hasn't worked since the 1970s
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-you-sh...
Why you should stop sitting on your hands & invest RIGHT NOW
Reason 1: You can't rely on wages alone to help you build wealth
Climbing the corporate ladder hasn't worked since the 1970s
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-you-sh...
📈 THE COMPOUND CHART PACK 📈
Hopium, surprise market leaders, and why $1 trillion in margin debt is NBD
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
Hopium, surprise market leaders, and why $1 trillion in margin debt is NBD
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
September 11, 2025 at 1:33 PM
📈 THE COMPOUND CHART PACK 📈
Hopium, surprise market leaders, and why $1 trillion in margin debt is NBD
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
Hopium, surprise market leaders, and why $1 trillion in margin debt is NBD
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
🍟 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍟
Small caps (/small fries) may be hobbled, but that doesn't mean they're dead
What we need to see for a real small-cap revival:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/revenge-of...
Small caps (/small fries) may be hobbled, but that doesn't mean they're dead
What we need to see for a real small-cap revival:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/revenge-of...
September 8, 2025 at 3:52 PM
🍟 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍟
Small caps (/small fries) may be hobbled, but that doesn't mean they're dead
What we need to see for a real small-cap revival:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/revenge-of...
Small caps (/small fries) may be hobbled, but that doesn't mean they're dead
What we need to see for a real small-cap revival:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/revenge-of...
Small caps do well in high-growth, low-rate environments.
How do I know?
Because they've led in year 1 of every bull market since 1929 (with the exception of this one and 1938😵💫)
Small caps aren't dead.
Tomorrow on OptimistiCallie.
(subscribe here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe)
How do I know?
Because they've led in year 1 of every bull market since 1929 (with the exception of this one and 1938😵💫)
Small caps aren't dead.
Tomorrow on OptimistiCallie.
(subscribe here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe)
September 7, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Small caps do well in high-growth, low-rate environments.
How do I know?
Because they've led in year 1 of every bull market since 1929 (with the exception of this one and 1938😵💫)
Small caps aren't dead.
Tomorrow on OptimistiCallie.
(subscribe here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe)
How do I know?
Because they've led in year 1 of every bull market since 1929 (with the exception of this one and 1938😵💫)
Small caps aren't dead.
Tomorrow on OptimistiCallie.
(subscribe here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe)
📈 THE COMPOUND CHART PACK, vol 2 📈
Insane expectations, bonds behaving badly and reincarnation
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
Insane expectations, bonds behaving badly and reincarnation
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
September 4, 2025 at 5:52 PM
📈 THE COMPOUND CHART PACK, vol 2 📈
Insane expectations, bonds behaving badly and reincarnation
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
Insane expectations, bonds behaving badly and reincarnation
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...
🏃♀️ NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏃♀️
Run your own race.
Your benchmark is yourself, not the S&P 500 (ft this sweet Callan chart of S&P sector returns)
www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-yo...
Run your own race.
Your benchmark is yourself, not the S&P 500 (ft this sweet Callan chart of S&P sector returns)
www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-yo...
September 3, 2025 at 1:56 PM
🏃♀️ NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏃♀️
Run your own race.
Your benchmark is yourself, not the S&P 500 (ft this sweet Callan chart of S&P sector returns)
www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-yo...
Run your own race.
Your benchmark is yourself, not the S&P 500 (ft this sweet Callan chart of S&P sector returns)
www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-yo...
🪩 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪩
It may be a below-average year for public debuts, but IPOs are getting their best reception since the turn of the century, surging nearly 35% on their first day of trading
Why do we love the new kids on the block so much?
www.optimisticallie.com/p/new-kids-o...
It may be a below-average year for public debuts, but IPOs are getting their best reception since the turn of the century, surging nearly 35% on their first day of trading
Why do we love the new kids on the block so much?
www.optimisticallie.com/p/new-kids-o...
August 25, 2025 at 12:42 PM
🪩 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪩
It may be a below-average year for public debuts, but IPOs are getting their best reception since the turn of the century, surging nearly 35% on their first day of trading
Why do we love the new kids on the block so much?
www.optimisticallie.com/p/new-kids-o...
It may be a below-average year for public debuts, but IPOs are getting their best reception since the turn of the century, surging nearly 35% on their first day of trading
Why do we love the new kids on the block so much?
www.optimisticallie.com/p/new-kids-o...
Shares of IPO this year have surged an average of 35% in their first day of trading, making 2025 the most successful year for public debuts since at least 2000
I'll tell you all about it TOMORROW
Subscribe here: optimisticallie.com/subscribe
I'll tell you all about it TOMORROW
Subscribe here: optimisticallie.com/subscribe
August 25, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Shares of IPO this year have surged an average of 35% in their first day of trading, making 2025 the most successful year for public debuts since at least 2000
I'll tell you all about it TOMORROW
Subscribe here: optimisticallie.com/subscribe
I'll tell you all about it TOMORROW
Subscribe here: optimisticallie.com/subscribe