Matt Keer
@captaink77.bsky.social
Mostly SEND, mostly for @spcialndsjungle.bsky.social
Yeah - almost regardless of how this might be happening (disinterest at one end, or hubris at the other), it’s hard to see this line as positive
February 6, 2026 at 5:38 PM
Yeah - almost regardless of how this might be happening (disinterest at one end, or hubris at the other), it’s hard to see this line as positive
More on that groundbreaking’dual-badged’ presentation idea from *checks notes* the Tory 2022 SEND & AP Green Paper
February 6, 2026 at 4:21 PM
More on that groundbreaking’dual-badged’ presentation idea from *checks notes* the Tory 2022 SEND & AP Green Paper
ps ‘low-ability,’ my arse
February 3, 2026 at 6:05 PM
ps ‘low-ability,’ my arse
And another one, no idea whether this is circular sourcing or not, but apparently govt ‘is understood to be rebuilding the funding system from scratch’
inews.co.uk/news/educati...
inews.co.uk/news/educati...
January 23, 2026 at 7:09 PM
And another one, no idea whether this is circular sourcing or not, but apparently govt ‘is understood to be rebuilding the funding system from scratch’
inews.co.uk/news/educati...
inews.co.uk/news/educati...
“I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of peace”
January 19, 2026 at 8:59 PM
“I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of peace”
Upper-tier LA finance officers rn
December 17, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Upper-tier LA finance officers rn
Provisional local govt financial settlement & DSG/SEND deficits: £3.8bn now, est £14bn in 2028
“We will provide further detail on our plans to support local authorities with historic & accruing [DSG] deficits & conditions for accessing such [unspecified] support later in the Settlement process.”
“We will provide further detail on our plans to support local authorities with historic & accruing [DSG] deficits & conditions for accessing such [unspecified] support later in the Settlement process.”
December 17, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Provisional local govt financial settlement & DSG/SEND deficits: £3.8bn now, est £14bn in 2028
“We will provide further detail on our plans to support local authorities with historic & accruing [DSG] deficits & conditions for accessing such [unspecified] support later in the Settlement process.”
“We will provide further detail on our plans to support local authorities with historic & accruing [DSG] deficits & conditions for accessing such [unspecified] support later in the Settlement process.”
This is the current national picture for high-needs revenue funding allocation to mainstream SEND units and resource bases.
The grant announced late last night helps build things. But buildings don't teach kids, staff do that - and the funding variations between LAs are immense
The grant announced late last night helps build things. But buildings don't teach kids, staff do that - and the funding variations between LAs are immense
December 12, 2025 at 8:41 AM
This is the current national picture for high-needs revenue funding allocation to mainstream SEND units and resource bases.
The grant announced late last night helps build things. But buildings don't teach kids, staff do that - and the funding variations between LAs are immense
The grant announced late last night helps build things. But buildings don't teach kids, staff do that - and the funding variations between LAs are immense
The Sutton Trust mentions ‘SEND hubs’ only once in their report & they don’t define the term, so it’s basically choose-your-own-adventure www.suttontrust.com/wp-content/u...
December 4, 2025 at 9:28 PM
The Sutton Trust mentions ‘SEND hubs’ only once in their report & they don’t define the term, so it’s basically choose-your-own-adventure www.suttontrust.com/wp-content/u...
Thanks Isabelle - you might also find this post worthwhile, looking at the insane variation in SEN unit / RB funding - some are funded better than special, others are funded on a beanbag room & single TA basis www.specialneedsjungle.com/send-funding...
December 4, 2025 at 7:30 AM
Thanks Isabelle - you might also find this post worthwhile, looking at the insane variation in SEN unit / RB funding - some are funded better than special, others are funded on a beanbag room & single TA basis www.specialneedsjungle.com/send-funding...
More detail here - unclear whether all participants in this 'conversation' will have their written input rammed through a LLM; there's a document on the online sessions that looks more promising
consult.education.gov.uk/digital-comm...
consult.education.gov.uk/digital-comm...
December 2, 2025 at 8:01 PM
More detail here - unclear whether all participants in this 'conversation' will have their written input rammed through a LLM; there's a document on the online sessions that looks more promising
consult.education.gov.uk/digital-comm...
consult.education.gov.uk/digital-comm...
So the £6bn part of this alleged 'SEND timebomb' might not exist, because there might not be any extra deficit for Whitehall to mop up from April 2028, for reasons DfE won't explain
Their rebuttal is basically a Simpsons meme
Their rebuttal is basically a Simpsons meme
November 27, 2025 at 6:46 PM
So the £6bn part of this alleged 'SEND timebomb' might not exist, because there might not be any extra deficit for Whitehall to mop up from April 2028, for reasons DfE won't explain
Their rebuttal is basically a Simpsons meme
Their rebuttal is basically a Simpsons meme
If you're still awake & haven't committed seppuku yet, April 2028 is when the combined DSG deficit leaves its limbo state and lands.... somewhere
It's not clear where, but government will apparently announce its fate at the local government provisional settlement in a week or 2
But LAs are nervous
It's not clear where, but government will apparently announce its fate at the local government provisional settlement in a week or 2
But LAs are nervous
November 27, 2025 at 6:46 PM
If you're still awake & haven't committed seppuku yet, April 2028 is when the combined DSG deficit leaves its limbo state and lands.... somewhere
It's not clear where, but government will apparently announce its fate at the local government provisional settlement in a week or 2
But LAs are nervous
It's not clear where, but government will apparently announce its fate at the local government provisional settlement in a week or 2
But LAs are nervous
This is the combined DSG deficit that's being accumulated over time by councils. It was £2.2bn in April 2024. From published out-turn data, I think it'll be £3.8bn in April 2025. And my best guess for April 2026 is a £6.1bn deficit
OBR's best guess for April 2028? £14 billion
OBR's best guess for April 2028? £14 billion
November 27, 2025 at 6:46 PM
This is the combined DSG deficit that's being accumulated over time by councils. It was £2.2bn in April 2024. From published out-turn data, I think it'll be £3.8bn in April 2025. And my best guess for April 2026 is a £6.1bn deficit
OBR's best guess for April 2028? £14 billion
OBR's best guess for April 2028? £14 billion
The DSG deficits sit in accounting limbo. Until y'day, they were due to land back on council balance sheets in April 2028, which would have wrecked / further wrecked many councils' financial position
The 'switch' here is that central govt will now pick up the tab for *in year* deficits from 2028
The 'switch' here is that central govt will now pick up the tab for *in year* deficits from 2028
November 27, 2025 at 6:46 PM
The DSG deficits sit in accounting limbo. Until y'day, they were due to land back on council balance sheets in April 2028, which would have wrecked / further wrecked many councils' financial position
The 'switch' here is that central govt will now pick up the tab for *in year* deficits from 2028
The 'switch' here is that central govt will now pick up the tab for *in year* deficits from 2028
This figure is bollocks. Although no-one knows exactly how much central & local government spend on SEND, it's at least a 50% underestimate, easily checked.
The £6 billion figure they refer to - and the thing that will be 'switched' - is something else
The £6 billion figure they refer to - and the thing that will be 'switched' - is something else
November 27, 2025 at 6:46 PM
This figure is bollocks. Although no-one knows exactly how much central & local government spend on SEND, it's at least a 50% underestimate, easily checked.
The £6 billion figure they refer to - and the thing that will be 'switched' - is something else
The £6 billion figure they refer to - and the thing that will be 'switched' - is something else
Same goes for special schools: you'd expect more variation here, but it's very, very obvious that some schools catering for the same needs get £000,000s less funding than neighbours in other LAs, because of the vibes-based approach
Lowest band - zero (just £10k place funding)
Highest band - £83,100
Lowest band - zero (just £10k place funding)
Highest band - £83,100
November 4, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Same goes for special schools: you'd expect more variation here, but it's very, very obvious that some schools catering for the same needs get £000,000s less funding than neighbours in other LAs, because of the vibes-based approach
Lowest band - zero (just £10k place funding)
Highest band - £83,100
Lowest band - zero (just £10k place funding)
Highest band - £83,100
Mainstream SEND units seem to be the great white hope / white whale of reform
We looked at banded funded arrangements for these - same story, a Caligulan goat orgy of confusion
Lowest rate of high-needs top-up = zero (several LAs)
Highest rate = ~£36,000
We looked at banded funded arrangements for these - same story, a Caligulan goat orgy of confusion
Lowest rate of high-needs top-up = zero (several LAs)
Highest rate = ~£36,000
November 4, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Mainstream SEND units seem to be the great white hope / white whale of reform
We looked at banded funded arrangements for these - same story, a Caligulan goat orgy of confusion
Lowest rate of high-needs top-up = zero (several LAs)
Highest rate = ~£36,000
We looked at banded funded arrangements for these - same story, a Caligulan goat orgy of confusion
Lowest rate of high-needs top-up = zero (several LAs)
Highest rate = ~£36,000
But it's hard to see how that pledge can be met - because the level of variation and dysfunction in SEND funding allocations across LAs almost defies belief.
Check this graph - 100 current LA systems for mainstream banded funding, grouped by region: like a spider on crack walked across the page
Check this graph - 100 current LA systems for mainstream banded funding, grouped by region: like a spider on crack walked across the page
November 4, 2025 at 9:16 PM
But it's hard to see how that pledge can be met - because the level of variation and dysfunction in SEND funding allocations across LAs almost defies belief.
Check this graph - 100 current LA systems for mainstream banded funding, grouped by region: like a spider on crack walked across the page
Check this graph - 100 current LA systems for mainstream banded funding, grouped by region: like a spider on crack walked across the page
This pressure (& suppressive financial intervention policies) means that at a per-pupil level, real-terms cuts are being inflicted on schools high-needs allocations
Most LAs dole this out via banded funding systems. The graph shows changes to band values since 2023: 96% of LAs made real-terms cuts
Most LAs dole this out via banded funding systems. The graph shows changes to band values since 2023: 96% of LAs made real-terms cuts
November 4, 2025 at 9:16 PM
This pressure (& suppressive financial intervention policies) means that at a per-pupil level, real-terms cuts are being inflicted on schools high-needs allocations
Most LAs dole this out via banded funding systems. The graph shows changes to band values since 2023: 96% of LAs made real-terms cuts
Most LAs dole this out via banded funding systems. The graph shows changes to band values since 2023: 96% of LAs made real-terms cuts
Most local authorities run a deficit on their DSG funding blocks (usually because of high-needs funding shortages) - the deficit is growing more quickly than DfE predictions
End March 2025 = ~£3.8 billion (provisional)
End March 2026 = >£6.1 billion (forecast)
End March 2025 = ~£3.8 billion (provisional)
End March 2026 = >£6.1 billion (forecast)
November 4, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Most local authorities run a deficit on their DSG funding blocks (usually because of high-needs funding shortages) - the deficit is growing more quickly than DfE predictions
End March 2025 = ~£3.8 billion (provisional)
End March 2026 = >£6.1 billion (forecast)
End March 2025 = ~£3.8 billion (provisional)
End March 2026 = >£6.1 billion (forecast)
Nobody knows how much money is spent on SEND provision each year. This graph just covers the education side
People call the red bit 'the SEND budget' - but most pupils w SEND have most of their provision funded out of the blue bit, including mainstream pupils with an EHCP. Amount is unclear
People call the red bit 'the SEND budget' - but most pupils w SEND have most of their provision funded out of the blue bit, including mainstream pupils with an EHCP. Amount is unclear
November 4, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Nobody knows how much money is spent on SEND provision each year. This graph just covers the education side
People call the red bit 'the SEND budget' - but most pupils w SEND have most of their provision funded out of the blue bit, including mainstream pupils with an EHCP. Amount is unclear
People call the red bit 'the SEND budget' - but most pupils w SEND have most of their provision funded out of the blue bit, including mainstream pupils with an EHCP. Amount is unclear
Loving the spad energy here: ‘no-one has our courage, although we aren’t saying how we’ve grasped this nettle, or even whether we might have grasped a Venus fly trap by mistake’
October 22, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Loving the spad energy here: ‘no-one has our courage, although we aren’t saying how we’ve grasped this nettle, or even whether we might have grasped a Venus fly trap by mistake’
Sounds like a really awkward situation. If only there was some way to avoid it
October 10, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Sounds like a really awkward situation. If only there was some way to avoid it