Carmen Villa
@carmenvillaecon.bsky.social
I am an Assistant Professor at @econ.uzh.ch and @jacobscenteruzh.bsky.social. I am also a Research Affiliate at
@theifs.bsky.social.
@theifs.bsky.social.
Extra link if above not working drive.google.com/file/d/1rIgq...
dp2147.pdf
drive.google.com
February 7, 2026 at 10:04 AM
Extra link if above not working drive.google.com/file/d/1rIgq...
Thank you Francesca!
February 5, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Thank you Francesca!
Mixed-income developments and income diversity may help prevent negative social interactions, including the spatial concentration of gangs. Full WP here:https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/PUBLICATIONS/abstract.asp?index=11984
February 5, 2026 at 11:50 AM
Mixed-income developments and income diversity may help prevent negative social interactions, including the spatial concentration of gangs. Full WP here:https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/PUBLICATIONS/abstract.asp?index=11984
Why high-rises? They concentrated deprived populations in specific areas. The Right to Buy policy (1980) made this worse—houses were more likely to be bought off than flats, leaving towers increasingly isolated and disadvantaged.
February 5, 2026 at 11:50 AM
Why high-rises? They concentrated deprived populations in specific areas. The Right to Buy policy (1980) made this worse—houses were more likely to be bought off than flats, leaving towers increasingly isolated and disadvantaged.
Areas with gangs have dramatically higher rates of: knife crime (+72%), drug offences (+55%), violence (+49%), and crimes involving children suspects (+46%), as measured in administrative data from the London Metropolitan Police in 2010-2019.
February 5, 2026 at 11:50 AM
Areas with gangs have dramatically higher rates of: knife crime (+72%), drug offences (+55%), violence (+49%), and crimes involving children suspects (+46%), as measured in administrative data from the London Metropolitan Police in 2010-2019.
Bombed areas are: 18% more likely to have high-rise postwar housing, and 12% more likely to host gangs in later decades. This is robust to controlling for pre-WWII income levels, not driven by Inner London only, and not just due to population density effects.
February 5, 2026 at 11:50 AM
Bombed areas are: 18% more likely to have high-rise postwar housing, and 12% more likely to host gangs in later decades. This is robust to controlling for pre-WWII income levels, not driven by Inner London only, and not just due to population density effects.
Is this relationship causal? We use the 1940-41 Blitz as a shock to urban redevelopment. Since height regulations were relaxed in bombed areas, and bombing was random at small scales, this gives us plausibly exogenous variation in where postwar high-rises were built.
February 5, 2026 at 11:50 AM
Is this relationship causal? We use the 1940-41 Blitz as a shock to urban redevelopment. Since height regulations were relaxed in bombed areas, and bombing was random at small scales, this gives us plausibly exogenous variation in where postwar high-rises were built.
We combine novel spatial data on 440 gang territories with detailed council housing records and building attributes. Compared to areas with no council housing, high-rise post-war council housing areas are 3.3x more likely to host gangs.
February 5, 2026 at 11:50 AM
We combine novel spatial data on 440 gang territories with detailed council housing records and building attributes. Compared to areas with no council housing, high-rise post-war council housing areas are 3.3x more likely to host gangs.
Is this useful? Probably not. Productive? Definitely not. But hopefully entertaining!
Wishing you all a happy Christmas with loved ones. May 2026 bring joy both at and away from work.❤️
Wishing you all a happy Christmas with loved ones. May 2026 bring joy both at and away from work.❤️
December 22, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Is this useful? Probably not. Productive? Definitely not. But hopefully entertaining!
Wishing you all a happy Christmas with loved ones. May 2026 bring joy both at and away from work.❤️
Wishing you all a happy Christmas with loved ones. May 2026 bring joy both at and away from work.❤️
Reverse causality doesn't seem to be at play (lag productivity does not predict taking time off conditional on day of week, month, and year FE).
December 22, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Reverse causality doesn't seem to be at play (lag productivity does not predict taking time off conditional on day of week, month, and year FE).
Does taking time off help or hurt? There seem to be some returns to "getting in the zone" for a few days, but they fade fast. The long breaks (9+ days off) are deadline-driven: job market, thesis defence, submissions etc.
December 22, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Does taking time off help or hurt? There seem to be some returns to "getting in the zone" for a few days, but they fade fast. The long breaks (9+ days off) are deadline-driven: job market, thesis defence, submissions etc.
There is no "Friday I'm in Love" effect on the intensive margin either, but when I do work weekends, I perceive myself as less productive—probably shorter days, distractions, missing that peer effect energy.
December 22, 2025 at 12:13 PM
There is no "Friday I'm in Love" effect on the intensive margin either, but when I do work weekends, I perceive myself as less productive—probably shorter days, distractions, missing that peer effect energy.
Can I predict productive days beyond major life events? Not really. Year fixed effects explain just 1.5% of variation, month FE only 2%. In the intensive margin, there is no "deficit of vitamin D" observed fall in winter, no significant "working from holiday" falls in summer.
December 22, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Can I predict productive days beyond major life events? Not really. Year fixed effects explain just 1.5% of variation, month FE only 2%. In the intensive margin, there is no "deficit of vitamin D" observed fall in winter, no significant "working from holiday" falls in summer.
Three things stand out from the aggregate trends:
a) my standards might be getting stricter over time
b) there are clear bursts when away from home (e.g. during my visiting at Chicago)
c) there is a post-job market crash, explained by changes in the ext. margin (long holiday)
a) my standards might be getting stricter over time
b) there are clear bursts when away from home (e.g. during my visiting at Chicago)
c) there is a post-job market crash, explained by changes in the ext. margin (long holiday)
December 22, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Three things stand out from the aggregate trends:
a) my standards might be getting stricter over time
b) there are clear bursts when away from home (e.g. during my visiting at Chicago)
c) there is a post-job market crash, explained by changes in the ext. margin (long holiday)
a) my standards might be getting stricter over time
b) there are clear bursts when away from home (e.g. during my visiting at Chicago)
c) there is a post-job market crash, explained by changes in the ext. margin (long holiday)
/end The students induced to stay in school didn't gain qualifications despite more time in education. Financial incentives pushing students toward academic tracks may displace them from vocational or work-based training where they might thrive and build valuable skills.
December 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
/end The students induced to stay in school didn't gain qualifications despite more time in education. Financial incentives pushing students toward academic tracks may displace them from vocational or work-based training where they might thrive and build valuable skills.
6/ Despite some beneficial effects on crime, our estimate is that the Marginal Value of Public Funds was just 0.74 - meaning every £1 spent generated only 74p in societal returns. Even though this was a direct cash transfer, it failed to provide good value for money.
December 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
6/ Despite some beneficial effects on crime, our estimate is that the Marginal Value of Public Funds was just 0.74 - meaning every £1 spent generated only 74p in societal returns. Even though this was a direct cash transfer, it failed to provide good value for money.
5/ Low achievers: stayed in education longer but saw no qualification gains, became more economically inactive at 18, had lower earnings throughout their 20s. GOOD NEWS: The EMA reduced criminal convictions among this group and this effect persisted into their late 20s.
December 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
5/ Low achievers: stayed in education longer but saw no qualification gains, became more economically inactive at 18, had lower earnings throughout their 20s. GOOD NEWS: The EMA reduced criminal convictions among this group and this effect persisted into their late 20s.
4/ Effects varied by prior attainment. High achievers: more likely to attend university (but not graduate), lower part-time work while studying, lower earnings in early 20s that never recovered. 📉
December 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
4/ Effects varied by prior attainment. High achievers: more likely to attend university (but not graduate), lower part-time work while studying, lower earnings in early 20s that never recovered. 📉
3/ Despite high take-up, the EMA had no significant effect on labor market outcomes by age 31. We find that education participation increased only modestly and no improvement in earnings, employment, or welfare dependency.
December 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
3/ Despite high take-up, the EMA had no significant effect on labor market outcomes by age 31. We find that education participation increased only modestly and no improvement in earnings, employment, or welfare dependency.
2/ We track 200,000+ individuals who would have been eligible to the full award up to age 30. We use several administrative databases and explore the effects using the staggered roll-out of the program.
December 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
2/ We track 200,000+ individuals who would have been eligible to the full award up to age 30. We use several administrative databases and explore the effects using the staggered roll-out of the program.
1/ The EMA was a massive program - over half of young people were eligible to some payments if they stayed in school. Payments went directly to students (not parents) and required regular attendance. This was one of the largest conditional cash transfers in any high-income country. 💸
December 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
1/ The EMA was a massive program - over half of young people were eligible to some payments if they stayed in school. Payments went directly to students (not parents) and required regular attendance. This was one of the largest conditional cash transfers in any high-income country. 💸