When do you think you'll be comfortable with ChatGPT, Claude, or one of the others AI platforms doing your taxes?

This builds on some @rand.org work that I have with Akshaya Suresh about disruptions from labor replacing AI:
www.rand.org/pubs/working...

We’re not there yet, but the pace of progress suggests we could be within a year or two. Now is the time for workers, businesses, and policymakers to start preparing for these changes.

It’s not just individual workers who should be concerned—companies like H&R Block and Intuit, and many others whose business relies on managing paperwork, could be disrupted as AI advances.

In my piece, I propose a simple test: Would you trust #AI to do your taxes?
This requires both accuracy and trust. When AI can reliably read instructions, extract information from your documents, and complete the tax forms, it will be capable of automating a wide range of jobs.

There’s a lot of anxiety about AI replacing jobs, but today’s #AI tools aren’t quite ready to fully **replace** many humans in the workplace. Today's AI systems still require significant supervision, but the gap is closing fast.

7/ And learn more about the RAND Budget Model here: www.rand.org/education-em...

6/ There's much more to explore in our report, which is free to download: www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

5/ If we stay on the current path, more of our tax dollars will go to foreign countries than towards keeping Americans safe, responding to disasters, and delivering on all other national priorities.

➡️The bottom line: We tackled our debt burden in the past, and we can do it again.

4/ It will also require policymakers to build durable plans so that we can stay on track over the long time. Imagine a 30-year plan where policymakers came to a consensus on a general path to get to a fiscally sustainable place and a healthy economy.

3/ This study provides an achievable benchmark for fiscal policy in the future.

But the specific tradeoffs require policymakers to make tough choices. They will need to think beyond the ten-year planning window Congress currently uses to estimate impacts of legislation.

2/ My colleagues Vegard Nygaard, Akshaya Suresh and I examined the last 80 years of federal debt, including how the US:
🔹reduced the debt burden from WWII over 30 years
🔹piled on debt over the next 50 years
🔹can reduce this burden over the next 30 years
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...