Calum
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cccalum.bsky.social
Calum
@cccalum.bsky.social
Speaker, writer, and adviser on AI.
Co-founder of Conscium.
Co-host of the London Futurists Podcast.
6/6
Lucius’ work gives me an opportunity to plug a favourite science fiction author, Greg Egan, whose short story “Leaning To Be Me” is very relevant to the conversation.

youtu.be/r03bVSP44h8
Lucius Caviola: A Future with Digital Minds? Expert Estimates and Societal Response
A full list of papers and resources mentioned can be found here: www.prism-global.com/podcast/lucius-caviola-a-future-with-digital-minds 0:00 Introduction and Lucius's background 01:31 Expert…
youtu.be
November 24, 2025 at 6:03 PM
5/6
Experts were equally divided about whether the first superintelligence should ideally be conscious or a zombie.This again differs from non-experts, who mostly seem to want a zombie.

youtu.be/r03bVSP44h8
Lucius Caviola: A Future with Digital Minds? Expert Estimates and Societal Response
A full list of papers and resources mentioned can be found here: www.prism-global.com/podcast/lucius-caviola-a-future-with-digital-minds 0:00 Introduction and Lucius's background 01:31 Expert…
youtu.be
November 23, 2025 at 6:01 PM
4/6
Half of the experts expect digital minds to appear by 2050, and they mostly expect superintelligence to arrive first. They then expect large numbers of such minds to be created.

youtu.be/r03bVSP44h8
Lucius Caviola: A Future with Digital Minds? Expert Estimates and Societal Response
A full list of papers and resources mentioned can be found here: www.prism-global.com/podcast/lucius-caviola-a-future-with-digital-minds 0:00 Introduction and Lucius's background 01:31 Expert…
youtu.be
November 22, 2025 at 6:02 PM
3/6
Non-experts give a much lower estimate of digital minds being developed than experts – 23% compared with the experts’ 73%.

youtu.be/r03bVSP44h8
Lucius Caviola: A Future with Digital Minds? Expert Estimates and Societal Response
A full list of papers and resources mentioned can be found here: www.prism-global.com/podcast/lucius-caviola-a-future-with-digital-minds 0:00 Introduction and Lucius's background 01:31 Expert…
youtu.be
November 21, 2025 at 6:02 PM
7/7
D. Social Understanding and Norms
Human and societal modelling
Normative reasoning
Pragmatism and common sense
Cultural grounding
Institutional and legal agency

www.forbes.com/sites/calumc...
What do AIs need to acquire to reach Superintelligence
By creating superintelligence, we are turning ourselves into chimpanzees, so we should find out what cognitive capabilities separate us from our successors-to-be.
www.forbes.com
November 20, 2025 at 7:04 PM
2/6
In a recent survey of 67 AI consciousness experts, including philosophers and cognitive scientists, Lucius and his colleague Brad Saad found their median estimate of the likelihood of digital minds being created was 73%.

youtu.be/r03bVSP44h8
Lucius Caviola: A Future with Digital Minds? Expert Estimates and Societal Response
A full list of papers and resources mentioned can be found here: www.prism-global.com/podcast/lucius-caviola-a-future-with-digital-minds 0:00 Introduction and Lucius's background 01:31 Expert…
youtu.be
November 20, 2025 at 6:03 PM
6/7
C. World Modelling and Planning
Rich physics world models
Counterfactual planning

www.forbes.com/sites/calumc...
What do AIs need to acquire to reach Superintelligence
By creating superintelligence, we are turning ourselves into chimpanzees, so we should find out what cognitive capabilities separate us from our successors-to-be.
www.forbes.com
November 19, 2025 at 7:04 PM
1/6
Our latest guest is Lucius Caviola, Assistant Professor at Cambridge University´s Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence. He applies experimental psychology to questions about perceptions of AI consciousness and moral status.

youtu.be/r03bVSP44h8
Lucius Caviola: A Future with Digital Minds? Expert Estimates and Societal Response
A full list of papers and resources mentioned can be found here: www.prism-global.com/podcast/lucius-caviola-a-future-with-digital-minds 0:00 Introduction and Lucius's background 01:31 Expert…
youtu.be
November 19, 2025 at 6:01 PM
5/7
B. Knowledge Creation and Reasoning
Robust scientific method
Causal discovery and variable invention
Handling ambiguity
Hunches and intuition
Analogy and cross-domain transfer
Meta-cognition
Deception and subterfuge

www.forbes.com/sites/calumc...
What do AIs need to acquire to reach Superintelligence
By creating superintelligence, we are turning ourselves into chimpanzees, so we should find out what cognitive capabilities separate us from our successors-to-be.
www.forbes.com
November 18, 2025 at 7:01 PM
4/7
A. Self and Agency:
Conscious phenomenal experience
Volition
Self-modelling and identity
Planning, and meaning-making over time
Sensorimotor grounding
Curiosity-driven exploration
Aesthetic sense and taste formation

www.forbes.com/sites/calumc...
What do AIs need to acquire to reach Superintelligence
By creating superintelligence, we are turning ourselves into chimpanzees, so we should find out what cognitive capabilities separate us from our successors-to-be.
www.forbes.com
November 17, 2025 at 7:01 PM
3/7
By creating superintelligence, we are turning ourselves into chimpanzees, so we should try to understand what cognitive capabilities it lacks. This article is a list of 21 human capabilities which machines don’t have. Yet.

www.forbes.com/sites/calumc...
What do AIs need to acquire to reach Superintelligence
By creating superintelligence, we are turning ourselves into chimpanzees, so we should find out what cognitive capabilities separate us from our successors-to-be.
www.forbes.com
November 16, 2025 at 7:00 PM
2/7
It is surprisingly hard to specify all the things that human radiologists are doing which machines cannot yet replicate, but there are a lot of them. Nevertheless, 2030 is a common estimate for the arrival of superintelligence.

www.forbes.com/sites/calumc...
What do AIs need to acquire to reach Superintelligence
By creating superintelligence, we are turning ourselves into chimpanzees, so we should find out what cognitive capabilities separate us from our successors-to-be.
www.forbes.com
November 15, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Boston Dynamics CEO thinks robot housekeepers could be ten years away.

If he´s right, it´s time to short Tesla.

www.euronews.com/next/2025/11...
Robots could reach our homes within 10 years, says Boston Dynamics CEO
Boston Dynamics CEO Robert Playter tells Euronews Next about robot safety, its newest model, and AI.
www.euronews.com
November 15, 2025 at 12:01 PM
5/7
B. Knowledge Creation and Reasoning
Robust scientific method
Causal discovery and variable invention
Handling ambiguity
Hunches and intuition
Analogy and cross-domain transfer
Meta-cognition
Deception and subterfuge

www.forbes.com/sites/calumc...
What do AIs need to acquire to reach Superintelligence
By creating superintelligence, we are turning ourselves into chimpanzees, so we should find out what cognitive capabilities separate us from our successors-to-be.
www.forbes.com
November 14, 2025 at 7:01 PM
1/7
About a decade ago, Geoff Hinton declared that human radiologists were like Wily E. Coyote in the Roadrunner show. They had run off the edge of a cliff, but hadn’t realised it yet. Ten years on, radiology has yet to be automated.

www.forbes.com/sites/calumc...
What do AIs need to acquire to reach Superintelligence
By creating superintelligence, we are turning ourselves into chimpanzees, so we should find out what cognitive capabilities separate us from our successors-to-be.
www.forbes.com
November 14, 2025 at 7:00 PM
10/10
Lenore thinks Alan Turing would probably agree that his famous Test is better seen as a way to ascribe consciousness than to test for intelligence.

www.prism-global.com/podcast/leno...
November 12, 2025 at 8:02 PM
9/10
Michael Graziano says that a non-conscious superintelligence would be a sociopath, whereas a conscious one could be empathetic. (Admittedly, humans can be sociopathic.) Given the choice, Lenore would opt for conscious superintelligence.

www.prism-global.com/podcast/leno...
November 11, 2025 at 10:09 PM
8/10
Lenore believes that artificial consciousness is not here yet, but that its arrival is inevitable, and fairly soon.

www.prism-global.com/podcast/leno...
November 10, 2025 at 8:02 PM
7/10
The Blums´ CTM model has the advantage of being compatible with pretty much all the major theories of consciousness, like Global Workplace Theory, Integrated Information Theory, the four Es, and so on.

www.prism-global.com/podcast/leno...
November 9, 2025 at 8:01 PM
6/10
The Blums invented a multimodal language used by the brain called Brainish. The Brainish label for “rose” would consist of a certain smell, shape, colour, and texture.

www.prism-global.com/podcast/leno...
November 8, 2025 at 8:00 PM
5/10
Lenore explains the CTM model with an analogy of a partygoer who cannot remember the name of someone she met before. The brain contains multiple processors which shout replies, and a winner emerges by consensus. There is no central executive.

www.prism-global.com/podcast/leno...
November 7, 2025 at 8:02 PM
8/8
Tom now promulgates “Anglofuturism”, a memeplex offering an irreverent, optimistic view of what Britain might become. It advocates for thatched space stations and putting a Wetherspoons on the moon.
calumchace.com/podcast-feed/
November 7, 2025 at 5:07 PM
4/10
The Blum´s model of consciousness is the Conscious Turing Machine (CTM). It was inspired by Alan Turing’s model of computation, and Bernard Baars' Global Workspace Theory, although it is neither of those things itself.

www.prism-global.com/podcast/leno...
November 6, 2025 at 8:02 PM
7/8
The Bletchley Park AI Safety Summit in late 2023 was a high point of global anti-catastrophe league-style collaboration over AI safety. But follow-up summits have been more interested in developing AI capabilities than in pursuing AI safety.
calumchace.com/podcast-feed/
November 6, 2025 at 5:04 PM