More bad news for "Total", and therefore good news for everyone else:
theconversation.com/totalenergie...

There's a difference between non-extinction (some individuals of some genera or families surviving), and abundance.

Here's the ref in the diagram doi.org/10.1126/scia... and extract from Peter Brannen book:
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

My point is that latent environmental damage (particularly ocean carbon disruption over centuries) *could* end the Cenozoic and sufficient food web productivity and atmosphere to support large mammals.

Most climate scientists say human extinction very unlikely from fossil fuels. I'm not so sure.

The mineral exhaustion reminds me of Stapledon, 'Last and First Men'. I imagine with SLR/climate, there'd also be a taboo against mining. But empires can collapse and leave coil windings.

Why will reactors leak high-level waste? (See criticism of Jem Bendell).

The work of Rothman and associates is so important. There is negative feedback (silicate weathering) at timecales >100,000 years, but positive feedbacks on century/millennia timescales, suggesting potential for a future Canfield ocean. #rothmancarbonthreshold

Pasting pic as reminder of fluxes.

PS 3/2: by 'contingent', I mean limited and subject to global change. I can see some European civilisation surviving #AMOCcollapse, but OTOH see human extinction under a Canfield ocean period.

AMOC records are uncertain, as is the tipping point.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Sorry if you've seen this diagram before, but I use it to argue that biogenic CO₂ and methane is irrelevant on century and longer timescale. We ignore oceans and the #slowcarboncycle at future civilisations' peril.

I have contingent confidence in H sapiens's ability to adapt.

#carboncycle

2/2

Thanks for links. Hadn't heard of 2030s 'moon wobble'. I'd seen Maslin on CO2 from European invasion. That and Mongol invasion may be detectable on proxy records, but are tiny compared to industrial perturbation. Plus... 1/2.

Things looking bad but uncertain IMHO. I'm still with decarb groups.

The Cuban missile crisis was not the only time we came very close to nuclear war. There are accidental near-launches, and speaking of accountability, scenarios like "A House of Dynamite". Even a India-Pakistan was has been projected to cause 2 bn deaths from nuclear winter. 3/3

...since there is thermal inertia in the oceans. Sea-level rise and glacier retreat would continue, and co-extinctions. Even the AMOC shutdown could take decades to tip. One slow but massive tipping point is the Rothman carbon threshold.

As for nuclear war, that's a little optimistic too IMHO. 2/

Thanks for the reply. These are just my speculations. Hope to read Luke Kemp soon.

I disagree with "on an EOC-inducing pathway, the self-destruction occurs early enough, and EOC causes a climate-rollback." There are slow tipping points not rollback. EOC doesn't lower temperatures... 1/

Gates is thinking about impacts now and tech of the future, when IMHO we should be thinking about impacts now and in future decades and centuries and how we can reduce them immediately.

3/3

Actions now may determine the end of the geological era or epoch. Nuclear war seems more likely to me to cause EOC than economic collapse, but whatever the civilisational risk, my point about climate breakdown is it threatens ecosystem services needed for recovery in future centuries.

2/3

While what Daniel says is true, I'd agree we need to consider low-probability high-impact systemic failures, and they may not be as low-probability with knowledge about tipping points since Schneider.

Climate damage to ecosystems is deeper than extreme weather. That goes even bigger than EOC..

"Innovation"/R&D was big oil's delay tactic since 80s and Gates knows too little to defend against it. A 'tech visionary' when we need cuts now.

Climate workers do worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also do want attention on less certain (LPHI) risks and #tippingpoints.

"Innovation"/R&D was big oil's delay tactic since 80s and Gates knows too little to defend against it. A 'tech visionary' when we need cuts now.

Climate folk can worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also want attention on less certain risks and #tippingpoints.

Here's the other problem: as @climateactiontracker.org point out in the report Gates' staffers either didn't read or chose to ignore - the shifting projections from 'bad' to 'less bad' STOPPED SHIFTING after covid and MIGHT BE SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS MORE BAD

climateactiontracker.org/documents/12...

Very much agree about urgency of ending fossil fuels, so in the UK doing what I can to #StopRosebank and ask representatives to attend nebriefing.org.

Even for tipping points that take more than a century to play out, we should think responsibly in terms of the #SevenGenerationsPrinciple.

🌍💚

Climate-fueled hurricane Melissa is in "extreme rapid intensification" now. Already a cat. 4 hurricane with winds of 225 km/h, having added 65 km/h in just 12 hours.
Looking very bad for Jamaica.