Challenger Research
@challengerresearch.bsky.social
Geopolitical research firm delivering insights at the intersection of geopolitics, innovation, markets, and security.
Find us on Substack: https://challengerresearch.substack.com/
Find us on Substack: https://challengerresearch.substack.com/
Pinned
The Buzz Without End
How Drones Are Recasting the Human Experience of War
challengerresearch.substack.com
We've entered the era of cheap drones and expensive consequences - where inexpensive tech imposes a profound cognitive, as well as lethal, burden.
That persistent hum isn't just noise; it's the sound of warfare becoming continuous and deeply personal.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-buzz-w...
That persistent hum isn't just noise; it's the sound of warfare becoming continuous and deeply personal.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-buzz-w...
We've entered the era of cheap drones and expensive consequences - where inexpensive tech imposes a profound cognitive, as well as lethal, burden.
That persistent hum isn't just noise; it's the sound of warfare becoming continuous and deeply personal.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-buzz-w...
That persistent hum isn't just noise; it's the sound of warfare becoming continuous and deeply personal.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-buzz-w...
The Buzz Without End
How Drones Are Recasting the Human Experience of War
challengerresearch.substack.com
December 16, 2025 at 10:50 AM
We've entered the era of cheap drones and expensive consequences - where inexpensive tech imposes a profound cognitive, as well as lethal, burden.
That persistent hum isn't just noise; it's the sound of warfare becoming continuous and deeply personal.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-buzz-w...
That persistent hum isn't just noise; it's the sound of warfare becoming continuous and deeply personal.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-buzz-w...
Driven by increasing geopolitical concerns both the EU & UK have started to treat critical minerals as strategic assets.
Recent plans make a good start to address strategic vulnerabilities but lack the scale & investment needed for future autonomy.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-...
Recent plans make a good start to address strategic vulnerabilities but lack the scale & investment needed for future autonomy.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-...
A Tale of Two Critical Mineral Strategies
Europe Leads Britain Yet Both Remain Understrength in a World Where Minerals Shape Geopolitical Power
challengerresearch.substack.com
December 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Driven by increasing geopolitical concerns both the EU & UK have started to treat critical minerals as strategic assets.
Recent plans make a good start to address strategic vulnerabilities but lack the scale & investment needed for future autonomy.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-...
Recent plans make a good start to address strategic vulnerabilities but lack the scale & investment needed for future autonomy.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-...
Under the Trump administration the strategic, moral and diplomatic bridge between the US and Europe has collapsed.
The task is not to keep pretending the US is “on side”, but to build a Europe capable of standing on its own.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/europe-mus...
The task is not to keep pretending the US is “on side”, but to build a Europe capable of standing on its own.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/europe-mus...
Europe Must Accept Reality
The Trump Administration Is Not on Their Side
challengerresearch.substack.com
December 8, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Under the Trump administration the strategic, moral and diplomatic bridge between the US and Europe has collapsed.
The task is not to keep pretending the US is “on side”, but to build a Europe capable of standing on its own.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/europe-mus...
The task is not to keep pretending the US is “on side”, but to build a Europe capable of standing on its own.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/europe-mus...
Belgium is blocking the EU's 'Reparations Loan' citing systemic risk and the fear of massive Russian lawsuits.
The cynical question being asked: Is Belgium's reluctance fuelled by the windfall tax revenues they've collected on Russia's assets?
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/is-17-bill...
The cynical question being asked: Is Belgium's reluctance fuelled by the windfall tax revenues they've collected on Russia's assets?
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/is-17-bill...
Is €1.7 Billion Worth Derailing European Unity?
The Belgium Standoff Over Frozen Russian Assets
challengerresearch.substack.com
December 1, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Belgium is blocking the EU's 'Reparations Loan' citing systemic risk and the fear of massive Russian lawsuits.
The cynical question being asked: Is Belgium's reluctance fuelled by the windfall tax revenues they've collected on Russia's assets?
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/is-17-bill...
The cynical question being asked: Is Belgium's reluctance fuelled by the windfall tax revenues they've collected on Russia's assets?
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/is-17-bill...
As Charlie Munger once said "Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome."
Tax intake from the frozen Russian assets at Euroclear potentially finding their way into Belgium's domestic budget might help to explain the feet dragging here.
www.politico.eu/article/bart...
Tax intake from the frozen Russian assets at Euroclear potentially finding their way into Belgium's domestic budget might help to explain the feet dragging here.
www.politico.eu/article/bart...
EU allies turn screws on Belgium over its tax income from Russia’s frozen assets
European governments are piling pressure on Bart De Wever to allow the Russian cash to go to Kyiv as a mega loan.
www.politico.eu
November 28, 2025 at 3:00 PM
As Charlie Munger once said "Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome."
Tax intake from the frozen Russian assets at Euroclear potentially finding their way into Belgium's domestic budget might help to explain the feet dragging here.
www.politico.eu/article/bart...
Tax intake from the frozen Russian assets at Euroclear potentially finding their way into Belgium's domestic budget might help to explain the feet dragging here.
www.politico.eu/article/bart...
Niall Ferguson's defence of the plan isn't just analytically wrong; it normalises a framework in which aggression is rewarded, sovereignty is negotiable, and Western deterrence is treated as optional - it’s an architecture of surrender.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/niall-ferg...
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/niall-ferg...
Niall Ferguson’s Architecture of Surrender
History Misused
challengerresearch.substack.com
November 27, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Niall Ferguson's defence of the plan isn't just analytically wrong; it normalises a framework in which aggression is rewarded, sovereignty is negotiable, and Western deterrence is treated as optional - it’s an architecture of surrender.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/niall-ferg...
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/niall-ferg...
State-backed Chinese companies are buying up the world's strategic mines.
A Tanzanian rare-earth site that could've supplied much of Europe is now gone - "a very strategic loss" says @gracebaskaran.bsky.social.
This isn't a free market.
The West must act strategically.
www.wsj.com/business/the...
A Tanzanian rare-earth site that could've supplied much of Europe is now gone - "a very strategic loss" says @gracebaskaran.bsky.social.
This isn't a free market.
The West must act strategically.
www.wsj.com/business/the...
The Failed Crusade to Keep a Rare-Earths Mine Out of China’s Hands
The failure of one Western company to build a China-free rare-earths supply shows how Beijing has come to dominate the supply.
www.wsj.com
November 25, 2025 at 10:29 AM
State-backed Chinese companies are buying up the world's strategic mines.
A Tanzanian rare-earth site that could've supplied much of Europe is now gone - "a very strategic loss" says @gracebaskaran.bsky.social.
This isn't a free market.
The West must act strategically.
www.wsj.com/business/the...
A Tanzanian rare-earth site that could've supplied much of Europe is now gone - "a very strategic loss" says @gracebaskaran.bsky.social.
This isn't a free market.
The West must act strategically.
www.wsj.com/business/the...
Yesterday's update on X exposed what many have long suspected, many of the high-engagement MAGA accounts aren't American.
Propaganda in the social media age: foreign-based, coordinated, and made to look genuine.
The illusion is finally cracking.
Propaganda in the social media age: foreign-based, coordinated, and made to look genuine.
The illusion is finally cracking.
November 23, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Yesterday's update on X exposed what many have long suspected, many of the high-engagement MAGA accounts aren't American.
Propaganda in the social media age: foreign-based, coordinated, and made to look genuine.
The illusion is finally cracking.
Propaganda in the social media age: foreign-based, coordinated, and made to look genuine.
The illusion is finally cracking.
US military aid to Ukraine dropped to nearly 0 through 2025.
Europe and NATO through the PURL Initiative (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Latvia, Holland, Norway & Sweden) are now the prime funders.
Europe, step up. It's now or never.
Europe and NATO through the PURL Initiative (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Latvia, Holland, Norway & Sweden) are now the prime funders.
Europe, step up. It's now or never.
November 21, 2025 at 6:52 PM
US military aid to Ukraine dropped to nearly 0 through 2025.
Europe and NATO through the PURL Initiative (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Latvia, Holland, Norway & Sweden) are now the prime funders.
Europe, step up. It's now or never.
Europe and NATO through the PURL Initiative (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Latvia, Holland, Norway & Sweden) are now the prime funders.
Europe, step up. It's now or never.
Reposted by Challenger Research
This latest iteration of the ”peace plan” for Ukraine reeks of a Russian info op - and as such it’s quite successful, even if the plan itself is not serious or implementable.
This and an update on military (im)mobility in the Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social
This and an update on military (im)mobility in the Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social
On "Peace Plans" and Military (Im)Mobility in Europe
In this week’s Europe Dispatch, Minna Ålander discusses persisting lack of military mobility in Europe and likely yet another nothingburger, served by Trump.
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 12:15 PM
This latest iteration of the ”peace plan” for Ukraine reeks of a Russian info op - and as such it’s quite successful, even if the plan itself is not serious or implementable.
This and an update on military (im)mobility in the Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social
This and an update on military (im)mobility in the Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social
Europe's dependence on foreign fossil fuels remains one of its greatest geopolitical vulnerabilities. Real security begins when those fuels stop determining Europe's choices.
Europe's green energy transition is a strategic necessity.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-strate...
Europe's green energy transition is a strategic necessity.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-strate...
The Strategic Argument for Net Zero
Why Europe’s Energy Transition Is Its Most Potent Weapon
challengerresearch.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Europe's dependence on foreign fossil fuels remains one of its greatest geopolitical vulnerabilities. Real security begins when those fuels stop determining Europe's choices.
Europe's green energy transition is a strategic necessity.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-strate...
Europe's green energy transition is a strategic necessity.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-strate...
Nearly every computer chip & solar cell depends on a material & mine, most people have never heard of: high-purity quartz from Spruce Pine.
China, despite its dominance in many critical minerals, is heavily dependent on this US-controlled chokepoint.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/pining-for...
China, despite its dominance in many critical minerals, is heavily dependent on this US-controlled chokepoint.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/pining-for...
Pining for Quartz
China’s Dependence on a Little-Known North Carolina Mine
challengerresearch.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Nearly every computer chip & solar cell depends on a material & mine, most people have never heard of: high-purity quartz from Spruce Pine.
China, despite its dominance in many critical minerals, is heavily dependent on this US-controlled chokepoint.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/pining-for...
China, despite its dominance in many critical minerals, is heavily dependent on this US-controlled chokepoint.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/pining-for...
Rio Tinto mothballing the Jadar project shows that alongside investment in mining and refining capacity, community engagement and buy-in plays a crucial role in securing supply chains.
www.wsj.com/business/rio...
www.wsj.com/business/rio...
Rio Tinto to Shelve $2.4 Billion Serbian Lithium Project
The miner has faced repeated setbacks advancing the project amid community opposition.
www.wsj.com
November 14, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Rio Tinto mothballing the Jadar project shows that alongside investment in mining and refining capacity, community engagement and buy-in plays a crucial role in securing supply chains.
www.wsj.com/business/rio...
www.wsj.com/business/rio...
When Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Brazil this summer, the headlines missed a key part of the story – Brazil’s niobium monopoly. This piece unpacks how a diplomatic feud could push Brazil toward China and undermine American strategic interests.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/brazils-ni...
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/brazils-ni...
Brazil’s Niobium Monopoly
Why Trump's Personal Feud is Strategically Dangerous
challengerresearch.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 11:28 AM
When Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Brazil this summer, the headlines missed a key part of the story – Brazil’s niobium monopoly. This piece unpacks how a diplomatic feud could push Brazil toward China and undermine American strategic interests.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/brazils-ni...
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/brazils-ni...
As we've argued, Europe needs to dispense with the term "grey zone" and use "hybrid warfare" to reflect that it is now the target of a deliberate and coordinated hybrid campaign to destabilise European politics.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/semantics-...
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/semantics-...
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
Europe Is in a Gray Zone Between War and Peace
The continent’s leaders suspect Russia of being behind an intensifying barrage of increasingly disruptive attacks.
www.wsj.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:35 AM
As we've argued, Europe needs to dispense with the term "grey zone" and use "hybrid warfare" to reflect that it is now the target of a deliberate and coordinated hybrid campaign to destabilise European politics.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/semantics-...
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/semantics-...
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
Fresh from IAC 2025 🚀
Check out our report based on firsthand insights from one of our analysts who attended the entire event.
Packed with strategic commentary and takeaways, it will appeal to anyone interested in the evolving global space sector.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Check out our report based on firsthand insights from one of our analysts who attended the entire event.
Packed with strategic commentary and takeaways, it will appeal to anyone interested in the evolving global space sector.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
IAC 2025 Space Sector Market Report | Challenger Research
🚀 2025 IAC Sydney Market Analysis Report𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲’𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐞𝐫 𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭Gain a competitive edge with our exclusive market analysis report from the 2025 Internation...
www.challengerresearchgroup.com
November 7, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Fresh from IAC 2025 🚀
Check out our report based on firsthand insights from one of our analysts who attended the entire event.
Packed with strategic commentary and takeaways, it will appeal to anyone interested in the evolving global space sector.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Check out our report based on firsthand insights from one of our analysts who attended the entire event.
Packed with strategic commentary and takeaways, it will appeal to anyone interested in the evolving global space sector.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Great visual by MiningVisuals on the change in Uranium production over time, with Kazakhstan now the global leader with ~43% of world production (as of 2022).
November 3, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Great visual by MiningVisuals on the change in Uranium production over time, with Kazakhstan now the global leader with ~43% of world production (as of 2022).
The UK is producing world-class AI talent, but all too often it get acquired by US companies.
Britain is helping to producing the intellectual fuel for the AI revolution, while others build the engines that run on it.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-talent...
Britain is helping to producing the intellectual fuel for the AI revolution, while others build the engines that run on it.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-talent...
The Talent Pipeline
The UK has the talent, America has the capital, compute, & upside
challengerresearch.substack.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:24 PM
The UK is producing world-class AI talent, but all too often it get acquired by US companies.
Britain is helping to producing the intellectual fuel for the AI revolution, while others build the engines that run on it.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-talent...
Britain is helping to producing the intellectual fuel for the AI revolution, while others build the engines that run on it.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-talent...
On this rare occasion we agree with Bessent. China threatened Japan similarly in 2010 and since then Japan have made strides in reducing the use of Chinese minerals in key areas, like their growing space sector.
www.ft.com/content/399a...
www.ft.com/content/399a...
China ‘made a real mistake’ by ‘firing shots’ on rare earths, says Scott Bessent
US Treasury secretary says US will protect itself from supply shocks in 12-24 months
www.ft.com
October 31, 2025 at 6:16 PM
On this rare occasion we agree with Bessent. China threatened Japan similarly in 2010 and since then Japan have made strides in reducing the use of Chinese minerals in key areas, like their growing space sector.
www.ft.com/content/399a...
www.ft.com/content/399a...
Critical minerals are the cornerstone of power, industry, and strategy in the 21st century.
Our latest strategic review explores how critical minerals & rare earths, essential to most technology, have become oil 2.0 - shaping the modern world.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Our latest strategic review explores how critical minerals & rare earths, essential to most technology, have become oil 2.0 - shaping the modern world.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Critical Minerals: Strategic Review | Challenger Research
Critical Minerals Strategic Review: The Scramble for Oil 2.0Published October 2025 | By Challenger Research GroupOverviewCritical Minerals: The Scramble for Oil 2.0 is a comprehensive strategic review...
www.challengerresearchgroup.com
October 29, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Critical minerals are the cornerstone of power, industry, and strategy in the 21st century.
Our latest strategic review explores how critical minerals & rare earths, essential to most technology, have become oil 2.0 - shaping the modern world.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Our latest strategic review explores how critical minerals & rare earths, essential to most technology, have become oil 2.0 - shaping the modern world.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
In response to unreliability under the Trump administration, European countries are turning to European suppliers.
Sweden and Saab are positioning themselves as one the key European partners. However, Saab will need to ramp up capacity to meet this Gripen order.
www.ft.com/content/9ab0...
Sweden and Saab are positioning themselves as one the key European partners. However, Saab will need to ramp up capacity to meet this Gripen order.
www.ft.com/content/9ab0...
Saab ready to open plant in Ukraine for Gripen fighter jets
Kyiv agrees to buy up to 150 aircraft from the Swedish defence company
www.ft.com
October 27, 2025 at 10:24 AM
In response to unreliability under the Trump administration, European countries are turning to European suppliers.
Sweden and Saab are positioning themselves as one the key European partners. However, Saab will need to ramp up capacity to meet this Gripen order.
www.ft.com/content/9ab0...
Sweden and Saab are positioning themselves as one the key European partners. However, Saab will need to ramp up capacity to meet this Gripen order.
www.ft.com/content/9ab0...
A recent survey found only 16% of Germans would "definitely" defend the country with arms.
If Germany won't defend itself, the logical conclusion is to pay another country to do it - but paradoxically increasing numbers (46%) want to halt aid to Ukraine.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
If Germany won't defend itself, the logical conclusion is to pay another country to do it - but paradoxically increasing numbers (46%) want to halt aid to Ukraine.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Who Will Defend Germany If the Germans Won’t?
When an incursion of Russian drones forced Warsaw airport to shut down last month, Poland immediately shot them down. When unidentified drones forced Munich airport to suspend operations this month, G...
www.bloomberg.com
October 15, 2025 at 12:09 PM
A recent survey found only 16% of Germans would "definitely" defend the country with arms.
If Germany won't defend itself, the logical conclusion is to pay another country to do it - but paradoxically increasing numbers (46%) want to halt aid to Ukraine.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
If Germany won't defend itself, the logical conclusion is to pay another country to do it - but paradoxically increasing numbers (46%) want to halt aid to Ukraine.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Ukraine faces a perilous dance: gaining US support without risking sovereignty, while preparing for an inevitable post-war relationship with Moscow, whatever the outcome of the invasion.
Mexico offers a template on how to deal with powerful nations.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/what-ukrai...
Mexico offers a template on how to deal with powerful nations.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/what-ukrai...
What Ukraine Can Learn from Mexico’s Dance with Washington
The Choreography of Coexistence
challengerresearch.substack.com
October 14, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Ukraine faces a perilous dance: gaining US support without risking sovereignty, while preparing for an inevitable post-war relationship with Moscow, whatever the outcome of the invasion.
Mexico offers a template on how to deal with powerful nations.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/what-ukrai...
Mexico offers a template on how to deal with powerful nations.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/what-ukrai...