Charles A. Gardner, PhD
@chancethegardener.bsky.social
290 followers 260 following 2.1K posts
My goals are to reduce smoking-related DEATH and reduce teen nicotine USE. Both involve change. To change something, you need to be able to measure it...
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chancethegardener.bsky.social
People who work "at the bedside" with People Who Use Drugs know #HarmReduction saves lives.

Many epidemiologists who work with data on their computers view harm reduction as a distraction. THEY favor paternalistic bans, sin taxes, stigma and prison for people who use drugs.
alexwodak.bsky.social
Nabarun Dasgupta just won MacArthur Fellowship award. Nab is an epidemiologist & harm reduction advocate combining scientific studies with community engagement to reduce deaths & other harms from drug use.
@chancethegardener.bsky.social @jgitchell.bsky.social

www.macfound.org/videos/2025-...
Nabarun Dasgupta - 2025 MacArthur Fellow
www.macfound.org
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids AND Big Tobacco now lobby US state lawmakers and FDA to ban and seize "Illegal Chinese vapes" ('flavored' disposable nicotine vapes).

Both claim those are "popular with teens."

#FactCheck: Here is what CDC teen (NYTS) and adult (NHIS) surveys actually show.
chancethegardener.bsky.social
I read it. WHO lumps "lifetime ever-use" + "past 30-day ever-use" and calls that "use."

To know how many kids may actually be 'hooked,' you need to know daily use (MUCH lower). That's not what they're measuring.

What's the denominator? Is 15 million out of 341 million kids that age "alarming"?
chancethegardener.bsky.social
The nicotine delivered, puff-for-puff, from a nicotine vape is lower than from a cigarette. Claiming vapes deliver more nicotine is a propaganda tactic used by #HarmReduction deniers.

#FactCheckMe: Google "nicotine" and "pharmacokinetic" and "e-cigarette" and "graph." Select images.
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Please distinguish: There is (a) vape industry and (b) tobacco industry. Most independent vape firms hate big tobacco. Big tobacco is actively trying to kill it's competitors (independent vape firms). These are two very different things with very different goals.
chancethegardener.bsky.social
I agree teens should not use nicotine. What troubles me is that US teen nicotine use has dropped to an all-time low according to NIH & CDC surveys... but no one knows this because health officials hide what their own surveys show. Why? It would undermine "whole new generation addicted" claims.
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Good scientists DO acknowledge the uncertainty. But university Comms Teams write the Press Release.

Their job performance depends on how many "hits" that gets. So they soup it up to sound as alarming as possible.

Journalists copy & paste from the Press Release... and the public is misinformed.
chancethegardener.bsky.social
"Linked" = an association. What is the direction of causation?

Almost all US adults who are now vape are former smokers. People who smoke tend to be older, low-income, obese, etc., all of which are risk factors for pre-diabetes or diabetes.

Do you understand (or even care) how causation works?
chancethegardener.bsky.social
There are 542 million children age 13-15 worldwide.

15m/542m = very few

PROBLEM: WHO lumps together "lifetime ever-use" and "at least one time in the past 30 days" ...and calls that "use."

The "use" we SHOULD worry about is frequent or daily use... but that's MUCH lower.
chancethegardener.bsky.social
2/2
...refuses to admit:

a) DEATH vs. USE carry different moral weight. Death is final. Use can, and demonstrably does, change.

b) US teen nicotine use has dropped to an all-time low. In this context, preventing 490,000 DEATHS every year is a MUCH higher priority.
www.cdc.gov/media/releas...
Youth Tobacco Product Use at a 25-Year Low, Yet Disparities Persist
Current tobacco product use among U.S. middle and high school students has dropped to the lowest rec
www.cdc.gov
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Respect. When I write a paper for a journal I cover uance. On social media, I admit I simplify.

I have two goals:
1) Reduce horrible death from smoking
2) Reduce teen nicotine use

What troubles me is an entire field of public health that...
1/2 ⬇️
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Two schools of thought:
1) precautionary principle
2) harm reduction

US teen nicotine vaping dropped 70% over the past 5 years to a 10-year low
www.cdc.gov/media/releas...

...while US adult use more than doubled
wwwn.cdc.gov/NHISDataQuer...

So "they target teens" is not consistent with reality
Youth E-Cigarette Use Drops to Lowest Level in a Decade
Youth E-Cigarette Use Drops to Lowest Level in a Decade
www.cdc.gov
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Well done. A triumph of government efforts to protect deadly cigarette sales and cigrette "sin tax" revenue.
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Sorry friend. I know hundreds of senior tobacco control "experts." If you think there is no disagreement in that field I can't help you.
chancethegardener.bsky.social
What will US public health be telling the public in 2035... if these trends continue?

By 2027, more adults will vape than smoke. Adult smoking will hit zero in ~10 years. Lung cancer will hit a 100-year low.

How will they explain the extremely alarming messages they *pushed* back in 2025?
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Does this look like a "spike" in youth e-cigarette use to you?
chancethegardener.bsky.social
What puzzles me is why SO many bots pretend to be television news sites (with almost no followers) and make demonstrably false claims.

#FactCheck: US teen nicotine vaping dropped 70% over the past five years. So that is clearly not "surging" or "epidemic." It's now at a 10-year low.
Reposted by Charles A. Gardner, PhD
handgunyoga.bsky.social
In a country that ranks poorly internationally for gender equality, the 64-year-old Takaichi makes history as the first female leader of Japan’s long-governing conservative Liberal Democratic Party. Takaichi is one of the most conservative members of the male-dominated party.
Japan’s ruling party elects Sanae Takaichi as new leader, likely to become first female PM
The hard-line ultra-conservative and China hawk has said that ensuring the Japan-U.S. alliance is her top diplomatic priority.
www.politico.com
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Thank you for sharing this. But mice are not tiny humans. And the >17 million US human adult ex-smokers who have quit by vaping (so far) do not lick their own fur, or groom each other with their tongues, or vape by going into tiny chambers where they are blasted by vapor.
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Those 2019 lung injuries were caused by illicit THC vapes cut with vitamin E acetate (not nicotine vapes). That was 6 years ago.

US teen nicotine vaping dropped 70% over the past five years to a 10-year low. Not exactly a "spike" in use.
www.cdc.gov/media/releas...
Youth E-Cigarette Use Drops to Lowest Level in a Decade
Youth E-Cigarette Use Drops to Lowest Level in a Decade
www.cdc.gov
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Dr. Stan Glantz' studies have been debunked over and over. Some retracted. He is accused by 2 of his grad students of sexual harrassment.

Yet #HarmReduction deniers LOVE him. He WANTS us all to believe nicotine vaping is a "gateway to smoking."

FUN FACT: This shows he KNOWS vaping is safer.
chancethegardener.bsky.social
So... Huh. I never thought of it in this historical context Alex. #HarmReduction deniers are modern Luddites. Smashing wool mills...
chancethegardener.bsky.social
I apologize. Your response confused me so I shared evidence.

There ARE two schools of thought on this. Many health experts refuse even to acknowledge THAT.

One side is wrong. The other is right. The side that is wrong is currently causing millions of deaths worldwide so... high stakes.
chancethegardener.bsky.social
Cigarettes kill 490,000 Americans every year. That's bad.

So the benefits of switching to #SaferNicotine alternatives are VERY clear.

If you refuse to see that product substitution has been happening over the past 18 years (since nicotine vapes entered the US market) you are willfully blind.