Charles Rotblut
charlesrcfa.bsky.social
Charles Rotblut
@charlesrcfa.bsky.social
VP at American Association of Individual Investors (AAII.com), AAII Journal Editor, Speaker, Author and Runner. KU Alum.
AAII Sentiment Survey
*Bullish: 31.6%, a nine-week low
*Neutral: 19.2%, back to being unusually low
*Bearish: 49.1%, a nine-week high & unusually high
www.aaii.com/sentimentsur...
November 13, 2025 at 2:42 PM
📉 Single-stock ETFs have not enriched investors.
2 examples:
📊 3-year performance - Tesla (TSLA) stock: +135%. The 2x leveraged Tesla ETF (TSLL): +64%
₿ Year-to-date performance - Coinbase (COIN) stock: +29%. The 2x leveraged Coinbase ETF (CONL): -11%
www.aaii.com/investor-upd...
November 7, 2025 at 4:25 PM
🏃‍♂️📈 "Shut Up, Brain" - Advice that applies to running and investing.

Keys to running 26.2 miles OR building long-term wealth:
📋 Good plan
💪 Discipline
⏰ Patience
🌦️ Accept uncertainty
🧠 Know thyself
www.aaii.com/investor-upd...
November 5, 2025 at 12:00 AM
AAII Sentiment Survey
*Bullish: 36.9%, close to average
*Neutral: 20.5%; a five-week high but still unusually low
*Bearish: 42.7%; remains unusually high

www.aaii.com/sentiment-su...
#SP500 #Stocks #InvestorSentiment
October 23, 2025 at 1:12 PM
✨ Gold topped $4,300/ounce for the first time yesterday.

The usual explanations for the rally don't quite add up. China's buying timeline is off.
USD is still relatively strong.
Inflation expectations are 2-2.5%.

www.aaii.com/investor-upd...

#Gold $GLD
Gold Soars, but the Reason Isn't Clear
Gold has gained 64% year to date. What’s driving the rally?
www.aaii.com
October 17, 2025 at 3:00 PM
That's me crossing the finish line at the Milwaukee Lakefront Marathon on Sunday. 🏃‍♂️

Warm temps, crosswind, 653 ft of elevation (including Hoan Bridge—twice!)

26.2 miles run to earn the free banana 🍌
October 9, 2025 at 8:32 PM
AAII Sentiment Survey:
*Bullish: 45.9%, highest level of 2025
*Neutral: 18.5%, unusually low for a 5th week
*Bearish: 35.6%, still above avg., but at a 10-week low
*Bull/Bear Ratio: 10.2--highest since July

www.aaii.com/sentimentsur...
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey | AAII
AAII’s Investor Sentiment Survey shows the percentage of investors who are market bullish, bearish, or neutral on stocks
www.aaii.com
October 9, 2025 at 1:36 PM
A big change is coming for #ETFs.

Dimensional Fund Advisors will offer ETF share classes of their mutual funds.
🔄 Tax efficiency improvements through in-kind transactions
💰 Commission-free trading
⚡ Intraday trading flexibility when you need it

www.aaii.com/investor-upd...
Mutual Funds to Gain ETF Tax Advantages and Intraday Trading
The impact on investors of allowing firms to offer dual mutual fund and ETF share classes.
www.aaii.com
October 3, 2025 at 1:44 PM
AAII Sentiment Survey
*Bullish: 41.7%, unchanged & above average
*Neutral: 19.1%, unusually low for 13th week & below avg. for 38 of 39 weeks this year
*Bearish: 39.2%, above avg. for 43 of 45 weeks
www.aaii.com/sentimentsur...

#stocks #investing #sp500
September 25, 2025 at 1:18 PM
AAII Sentiment Survey
*Bullish: 41.7%, surged +13.6pts in biggest weekly jump this year
*Neutral: 16.0%, plunged to a 5-month low & ranks in the bottom 50 readings since 1987
*Bearish: 42.4%, down -7.1pts but above avg. for 41 of 43 weeks
www.aaii.com/sentimentsur...
September 18, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Getting nine of Saturday's 20 miles on the treadmill was not fun, but it was better than being electrocuted by lightning.

It is also the reality of training for a marathon.
September 15, 2025 at 10:06 PM
📈 How do you use moving averages?

Most investors treat them as definitive trading signals instead of helpful context.

Key insight: Use them to filter out daily noise and distinguish meaningful price movements from random fluctuations.

www.aaii.com/journal/arti...
Using Moving Averages to Guide Investment Decisions
Moving averages can help distinguish between meaningful price movements and random fluctuations.
www.aaii.com
September 15, 2025 at 10:01 PM
💰 Municipal bond funds outperform even after accounting for their tax advantages.

Derek Horstmeyer of GMU: Munis realized higher returns vs. taxable bonds over 15 years.

Me: Muni bond fund tax-equivalent yields > taxable bond yields.

Double win. 📈
www.aaii.com/investor-upd...
September 12, 2025 at 2:51 PM
AAII Sentiment Survey
*Bullish: 28.0%, lowest since May & at low-end of typical readings
*Neutral: 22.5%, a 5-wk low & below avg. for the 60th time in 62 weeks
*Bearish: 49.5%, above 40% for 6th week

www.aaii.com/sentiment-su...

#Investing #SP500 #Stocks
September 11, 2025 at 11:49 AM
🚨 ETFs can become too popular for their own good.
When too much money floods in, returns suffer.

Red flags:
📈 High valuations
💸 Massive inflows
🎯 Complex strategies

Don't chase the hype.
www.aaii.com/investor-upd...

#ETFs #Investing
Beware of the Popularity Trap for ETFs
Winning funds when times are good end up subsequently lagging the broader market 60% of the time.
www.aaii.com
September 5, 2025 at 6:25 PM
AAII Sentiment Survey
*Bullish: Below avg. for 6th out last 7 weeks
*Neutral: Below avg. for 57th out of last 59 weeks
*Bearish: Above avg. for 40th out of last 42 weeks & unusually high
www.aaii.com/sentimentsur...

#Stocks #SP500
September 4, 2025 at 1:19 PM
The new tax creates new savings opportunities starting this year. Key changes investors should know:
✅ Higher standard deduction ($15,750/$31,500)
✅ Extra $6K-$12K deduction for 65+
✅ SALT cap raised to $40K
✅ Auto loan interest deductible

www.aaii.com/journal/arti...
What the One Big Beautiful Bill Act Means for Your Taxes
The OBBBA created new tax-saving opportunities. Here are steps you might consider taking.
www.aaii.com
September 2, 2025 at 3:55 PM
The September AAII Journal is now live. We discuss investing in growth stocks, what individual investors need to know about the new tax law (OBBBA), low volatility funds and more.

www.aaii.com/investor-upd...
August 31, 2025 at 2:52 PM
After Keurig Dr Pepper ($KDP) announced its spin-off plans, I dug into the data on whether these corporate splits actually benefit investors.

The results? 📉
25% destroy shareholder value
Average gain: just 5% after 2 years
Spin-off ETF trails market over 10 years

www.aaii.com/investor-upd...
August 29, 2025 at 5:58 PM
AAII Sentiment Survey
*Bullish: Below 40% for all of August
*Neutral: Below avg. for 56th out of last 58 weeks
*Bearish: Above avg. for 39th out of last 41 weeks
www.aaii.com/sentimentsur...
August 28, 2025 at 1:28 PM
S&P 500 valuations are partying like it's 1999 📈

Price-to-book and P/E ratios back at dot-com bubble levels.

Key difference: today's tech companies are actually profitable.
But frothy valuations still leave little room for error.

www.aaii.com/investor-upd...

#Investing #MarketValuation
August 21, 2025 at 10:42 PM
FIRE & early retirement sound great—but the key is having a plan.

☕ Barista FIRE = side income + health coverage
🎯 Define spending target → work backward to savings goal
📉 Plan for lower withdrawals (≈3%) to last decades

www.aaii.com/journal/arti...
A One-Page Wealth-Building Plan for FIRE and Early Retirement
Retiring early requires careful planning, but a simplified one-page approach can help you stay focused on what matters most.
www.aaii.com
August 19, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Private investments in 401(k) plans? I'm a skeptic

🔒The executive order may seem appealing, but the reality is that the higher fees, limited liquidity and complexity are things most workers don't need.
www.aaii.com/investor-upd...
Why Private Investments Don't Belong in 401(k) Accounts
The desire to include private investments in workplace retirement plans seems to be coming from the industry itself.
www.aaii.com
August 15, 2025 at 5:41 PM
AAII Sentiment Survey:
*Bullish: Down to a 3-month low
*Neutral: Below avg. for 54th out last 56 weeks
*Bearish: Unusually high
www.aaii.com/sentimentsur...

Our AII Contrarian Sentiment Indicator is now signaling cautious sentiment.
sentiment.aaii.com
August 14, 2025 at 1:24 PM