Best fill out the apology form lad

Prime example of course are the college town seats. For example, they have HD-41 as Trump +4.4. That's inaccurate.

In actuality when using the formula that was applied to the same process for CAPs in 2021 and prior, it was Trump +2.9.

projects.statenavigate.com/districts/st...

So yeah this is a big difference between our 2024 data and VPAP's. I don't know what their formula was for 2021 but it's probably pretty much the same as ours.

We used the formula for provisionals in 2024 so when you look at @statenavigate.org's data for districts that year it's more accurate.

Seeing that provisionals were allocated was such a pleasant surprise today, doing the formula is a pain for our staff.

Also to be clear I don't mean indefinitely I mean just on Election Night. If you want Election Night stuff for certain, we'll be posting it on X.

Also of note in VA-GOV is that Spanberger is winning the Richmond region (Richmond + Cville media markets in our regional clusters) by only 1pt less than she is in NoVA. She's knocking it out of the park in her homebase.

Our Virginia Navigate forecast updates at 8 AM Eastern. The biggest update will be in the AG race where Jay Jones has his slimmest-ever lead of just 4.6% in our forecast: AG is coming down to the wire. He has an 81% chance of winning at the moment.

projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...

🔶Spanberger winning 68-29 among Moderates
🔶"Shy" Jay Jones voters exist: notice people who say they've already voted
🔶7% of Spanberger voters are voting for Miyares