Erica Chenoweth
@chenoweth.bsky.social
28K followers 420 following 210 posts
Political scientist & part-time farmer. Books: 'On Revolutions' (2022), 'Civil Resistance' (2021), & 'The Politics of Terror' (2019). Coming soon: 'Bread & Roses' & 'The End of People Power.' https://www.ericachenoweth.com. What a time to be alive.
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chenoweth.bsky.social
Lately I've seen many references to the 3.5% rule. A few years ago I pulled together this Q&A on potential uses and misuses of this statistic. www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/defaul...
The cover page for a discussion paper called "Questions, Answers, and Some Cautionary Updates Regarding the 3.5% Rule" by Erica Chenoweth. In the image, peaceful protesters can be seen in front of the US Capitol building.
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
newseye.bsky.social
BREAKING: Big moment as CDC staff stage a mass walkout.

They have lined the street outside its HQ to greet and salute the four top officials who have resigned in protest at RFK Jr’s attack on the agency’s science base.

(🎥 AP)
chenoweth.bsky.social
Apartheid South Africa, Pinochet's Chile, and the Jim Crow South were fascist / white supremacist regimes that were deposed through mass nonviolent movements. These movements ultimately unified the opposition against autocracy--something that didn't happen in most 1930s cases in Europe.
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
chenoweth.bsky.social
Privileged to write this editorial with @gretchentg.bsky.social of @ucs.org in @science.org: "Scientists’ role in defending democracy." www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
A red quotation mark graphic, followed by bold text excerpted from an August 14th Science magazine editorial by Gretchen Goldman and Erica Chenoweth, saying "The ability to tell the truth, especially when it does not suit any particular partisan aims, is an essential prerequisite for a free society."
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
chenoweth.bsky.social
Here is the chart showing the growth of reported protest over time, 2025 vs. 2017, referenced in the piece below.
Line chart showing a steep blue line indicating the growth of the number of protests in 2015 over time, compared with a green line showing a more modest growth of the number of protests in 2017.
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
chenoweth.bsky.social
Here is the chart showing the growth of reported protest over time, 2025 vs. 2017, referenced in the piece below.
Line chart showing a steep blue line indicating the growth of the number of protests in 2015 over time, compared with a green line showing a more modest growth of the number of protests in 2017.
chenoweth.bsky.social
More from our team soon. Meanwhile, the data are available here:
dataverse.harvard.edu
chenoweth.bsky.social
Two caveats: (a) our data collection has improved over time, but we don’t think that’s explaining most of the growth across years; (b) the political conditions under which we are collecting data are not identical across years; more on the latter point here:
Resistance is alive and well in the United States
Protests of Trump may not look like the mass marches in 2017, but they're far more numerous and frequent — and also becoming more strategic.
wagingnonviolence.org
chenoweth.bsky.social
5. Other signs of durability & commitment during this period include historic turnout at the One Million Rising online trainings, the first of which on 7/16 had over 130,000 sign-ups. This was probably the largest nonviolence training in U.S. history.
One Million Rising — No Kings
www.nokings.org
chenoweth.bsky.social
4. Consistent with our past reporting, 2025 continues to see far more protests than were recorded at this time in 2017—a trend that continues through at least the end of July. This reinforces the sense of a growing & durable pro-democracy movement at the grassroots.
Resistance is alive and well in the United States
Protests of Trump may not look like the mass marches in 2017, but they're far more numerous and frequent — and also becoming more strategic.
wagingnonviolence.org
chenoweth.bsky.social
3. Over 99.5% of reported protests had no injuries or property damage, with the latter reported in only 10 locations (just under 0.5%). As we’ve reported before, this is an unprecedentedly tiny fraction for a movement of this size and geographic dispersion.
American Spring? How nonviolent protest in the US is accelerating
Contrary to conventional wisdom, anti-Trump protests this year have dwarfed 2017 in size, and they have been extraordinarily peaceful.
wagingnonviolence.org
chenoweth.bsky.social
2. No Kings was comparable in scale to the Women’s March, albeit across far more locations. The Women’s March involved actions in over 650 locations, while No Kings saw events in over 2150 as many locations, with events organized in big cities, small towns and places in between.
chenoweth.bsky.social
1. No Kings was likely the 2nd-largest single day demonstration since Trump took office in 2017. We estimate that between 2m and 4.8m people participated, making its turnout comparable to that of the 2017 Women’s March (between 3.2m and 5.3m people).
chenoweth.bsky.social
More from our team soon. Meanwhile, the data are available here: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/cr...
dataverse.harvard.edu
chenoweth.bsky.social
Two caveats: (a) our data collection has improved over time, but we don’t think that’s explaining most of the growth across years; (b) the political conditions under which we are collecting data are not identical across years; more on the latter point here: wagingnonviolence.org/2025/03/resi...).
Resistance is alive and well in the United States
Protests of Trump may not look like the mass marches in 2017, but they're far more numerous and frequent — and also becoming more strategic.
wagingnonviolence.org
chenoweth.bsky.social
5. Other signs of durability & commitment during this period include historic turnout at the One Million Rising online trainings, the first of which on July 16 had over 130,000 sign-ups. This was probably the largest nonviolence training in U.S. history www.nokings.org/rise.
One Million Rising — No Kings
www.nokings.org