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sars_cov.2_covid_19BREAKING: Scientists Warn That If H5N1 Starts Spreading Easily Between People, We May Have Only 48 Hours to Stop a PandemicScientists have identified the tipping point at which halting bird flu becomes nearly impossible. Once H5N1 is spreading sustainably among people, authorities may have only 48 hours to prevent a pandemic, the study suggests.The model, based on the interactions of nearly 10,000 people in a poultry-farming district in southern India — one of the country’s biggest egg-producing hubs — shows that culling infected birds within 10 days of outbreak detection significantly reduces the risk of human-to-human transmission.Waiting until day 20 probably means the virus has already jumped to farmers. Quarantining at two confirmed human cases halts outbreaks, but waiting for ten cases, as is often standard practice, has the same outcome as doing nothing at all, says epidemiologist, Gautam Menon. "If you can detect and respond early, you can stop an outbreak before it takes off among humans," says Menon.The model, released with the BharatSim platform, work with networks of homes, workplaces, schools, and interactions between primary, secondary and tertiary contacts, reflecting how people actually interact in South Asian settings. It reconstructs what could happen if H5N1 spills over into a human population through infected birds on a farm or in a wet market, and how early interventions might contain the spread.H5N1 remains largely confined to birds and has caused sporadic human cases with high fatality rates. Although sustained human-to-human transmission has never been confirmed, recent detections in cows and mammals worldwide have heightened concerns about its pandemic potential. H5N1 carries a case fatality rate exceeding 30% in the few humans known to have contracted it.Study link:https://www.nature.com/articles/d44151-025-00225-9?utm_campaign=engagement&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=organicPaper link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-025-25358-5