Chris Williamson
@chris-williamson.bsky.social
Posting from a personal capacity.
UK inflation rose from 3.4% to 3.7% in June, and the official annual % change data may rise further in the next couple of months, but the forward-looking PMI data suggest the worst of the recent upturn in underlying price pressures has already started easing
July 16, 2025 at 12:05 PM
UK inflation rose from 3.4% to 3.7% in June, and the official annual % change data may rise further in the next couple of months, but the forward-looking PMI data suggest the worst of the recent upturn in underlying price pressures has already started easing
US CPI inflation up from 2.4% to 2.7% in June with further rises to come in the months ahead according to the S&P Global PMI
July 15, 2025 at 2:17 PM
US CPI inflation up from 2.4% to 2.7% in June with further rises to come in the months ahead according to the S&P Global PMI
PMI surveys indicate elevated US price growth as tariffs drive inflation differential with rest of world
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
July 4, 2025 at 3:46 PM
PMI surveys indicate elevated US price growth as tariffs drive inflation differential with rest of world
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Early 'flash' PMI data show US prices spiking higher in May amid tariff impact. Hints at potentially sizeable CPI rise. Full press release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
May 22, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Early 'flash' PMI data show US prices spiking higher in May amid tariff impact. Hints at potentially sizeable CPI rise. Full press release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
This week sees flash PMI data released on Thursday, which will supply markets with more detailed insights into economic trends in the face of changing global trade conditions among the major economies.
Read more in our free-to-read preview of the week ahead: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Read more in our free-to-read preview of the week ahead: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
May 19, 2025 at 7:19 AM
This week sees flash PMI data released on Thursday, which will supply markets with more detailed insights into economic trends in the face of changing global trade conditions among the major economies.
Read more in our free-to-read preview of the week ahead: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Read more in our free-to-read preview of the week ahead: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
V. interesting thread Chris. There's been so much distorting the economic data in recent years it's difficult to disentangle the factors at play. Certainly Q1 GDP (current price, NSA) has been showing an upward trend in recent years.
May 15, 2025 at 3:02 PM
V. interesting thread Chris. There's been so much distorting the economic data in recent years it's difficult to disentangle the factors at play. Certainly Q1 GDP (current price, NSA) has been showing an upward trend in recent years.
But before getting too excited about surging productivity, note that no such signal is apparent if GDP is replaced by the PMI output index, which points to a more normal output:employment ratio
May 15, 2025 at 10:17 AM
But before getting too excited about surging productivity, note that no such signal is apparent if GDP is replaced by the PMI output index, which points to a more normal output:employment ratio
Quite the divergence between UK GDP growth and employment so far this year... points to big productivity gains if it persists. Are we replacing people with capital amid rising staff costs? It would explain the big jump in investment spending in Q1, if correct.
May 15, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Quite the divergence between UK GDP growth and employment so far this year... points to big productivity gains if it persists. Are we replacing people with capital amid rising staff costs? It would explain the big jump in investment spending in Q1, if correct.
Here's the UK GDP quarterly (3m/3m % change) growth profile of private sector services in recent years, supposedly seasonally adjusted... strong growth early in the spring seems to fade as we move into the second half of the year. This sector account for about 60% of GDP. (2/2)
May 15, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Here's the UK GDP quarterly (3m/3m % change) growth profile of private sector services in recent years, supposedly seasonally adjusted... strong growth early in the spring seems to fade as we move into the second half of the year. This sector account for about 60% of GDP. (2/2)
The UK enjoyed a strong first quarter again in 2025. Spot the pattern ... (1/2)
May 15, 2025 at 9:14 AM
The UK enjoyed a strong first quarter again in 2025. Spot the pattern ... (1/2)
US annual consumer price inflation down to 2.3% in April, its lowest since February 2021, but companies have been reporting some renewed upward pressure on selling prices in recent months, often linked to tariffs, which looks set to feed through to higher inflation in the coming months.
May 13, 2025 at 2:42 PM
US annual consumer price inflation down to 2.3% in April, its lowest since February 2021, but companies have been reporting some renewed upward pressure on selling prices in recent months, often linked to tariffs, which looks set to feed through to higher inflation in the coming months.
Worrying signs of UK labour market weakness from business surveys such as the PMI are also becoming increasingly apparent in the official data. HMRC data showed payrolled employment down 33K in April after a 47K fall in March and a 27k drop in Feb. Employment is now down 150K since last October
May 13, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Worrying signs of UK labour market weakness from business surveys such as the PMI are also becoming increasingly apparent in the official data. HMRC data showed payrolled employment down 33K in April after a 47K fall in March and a 27k drop in Feb. Employment is now down 150K since last October
"A decline in new export orders reported by UK manufacturers [in April] was not only the steepest recorded since May 2020, but was also greater than recorded by any other economy tracked by the S&P Global PMI surveys." More at www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
May 8, 2025 at 7:11 AM
"A decline in new export orders reported by UK manufacturers [in April] was not only the steepest recorded since May 2020, but was also greater than recorded by any other economy tracked by the S&P Global PMI surveys." More at www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
In addition to US factory prices spiking higher, input costs are rising at the fastest rate for 18 months in the US service sector. Full release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
April 3, 2025 at 2:03 PM
In addition to US factory prices spiking higher, input costs are rising at the fastest rate for 18 months in the US service sector. Full release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
Even before the April 2 tariffs were announced, the US was already seeing the steepest rate of inflation for manufacturing inputs of all 33 economies surveyed by S&P Global. www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
April 3, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Even before the April 2 tariffs were announced, the US was already seeing the steepest rate of inflation for manufacturing inputs of all 33 economies surveyed by S&P Global. www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
There's a common thread of weakness evident in the March US manufacturing surveys as tariff worries and concerns over federal spending cuts intensify.
April 1, 2025 at 2:32 PM
There's a common thread of weakness evident in the March US manufacturing surveys as tariff worries and concerns over federal spending cuts intensify.
Things are looking quite grim in the UK manufacturing sector, putting industry on a soft footing as tariffs loom. PMI down to 17-month low in March. www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
April 1, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Things are looking quite grim in the UK manufacturing sector, putting industry on a soft footing as tariffs loom. PMI down to 17-month low in March. www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
Manufacturing production rose across Germany for the first time in nearly two years in March, but the return to growth could prove short-lived. See the full PMI press release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
April 1, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Manufacturing production rose across Germany for the first time in nearly two years in March, but the return to growth could prove short-lived. See the full PMI press release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
US manufacturing output rose for a 2nd successive month in February, +0.7% (+1.2% in Jan) after 6 months of decline, as indicated in advance by the S&P Global PMI. However, the PMI showed recent production has been buoyed by companies front-running tariffs, which will likely fade in coming months.
March 18, 2025 at 1:30 PM
US manufacturing output rose for a 2nd successive month in February, +0.7% (+1.2% in Jan) after 6 months of decline, as indicated in advance by the S&P Global PMI. However, the PMI showed recent production has been buoyed by companies front-running tariffs, which will likely fade in coming months.
Wordcloud analysis of reasons cited for lower business activity and lower sales in the services economy from S&P Global's US PMI February 2025
March 5, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Wordcloud analysis of reasons cited for lower business activity and lower sales in the services economy from S&P Global's US PMI February 2025
There's a lot of talk of ISM services (in fact the coverage is broader) being resilient in February, especially compared to our S&P Global PMI for the US. However, all US services surveys are in fact painting a similar picture this year if they are standardised, and its one of growth weakening.
March 5, 2025 at 4:51 PM
There's a lot of talk of ISM services (in fact the coverage is broader) being resilient in February, especially compared to our S&P Global PMI for the US. However, all US services surveys are in fact painting a similar picture this year if they are standardised, and its one of growth weakening.
Eurozone GDP was flat in Q4, but flash PMI hints at a modest improvement at the start of Q1 amid signs of lower interest rate environment starting to help. All pretty moribund though as political uncertainty continues to dominate.
January 30, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Eurozone GDP was flat in Q4, but flash PMI hints at a modest improvement at the start of Q1 amid signs of lower interest rate environment starting to help. All pretty moribund though as political uncertainty continues to dominate.
A 0.2% decline in Germany's GDP in the fourth quarter was worse than economists had expected, but was in line with our PMI. Encouragingly, the flash PMI points to some stabilisation in January
January 30, 2025 at 9:15 AM
A 0.2% decline in Germany's GDP in the fourth quarter was worse than economists had expected, but was in line with our PMI. Encouragingly, the flash PMI points to some stabilisation in January
France's GDP contracted 0.1% in Q4, but this weakness in part reflects some payback from the Olympics (+0.4% Q3). That said, the flash PMI points to a broadly flat picture at start of 2025 so far due in part to weak demand amid political uncertainty.
January 30, 2025 at 9:05 AM
France's GDP contracted 0.1% in Q4, but this weakness in part reflects some payback from the Olympics (+0.4% Q3). That said, the flash PMI points to a broadly flat picture at start of 2025 so far due in part to weak demand amid political uncertainty.
UK inflation is meanwhile set to revive again, with the PMI survey's gauge of selling prices (goods and services) at an 18-month high in January according to the flash estimate.
January 24, 2025 at 9:56 AM
UK inflation is meanwhile set to revive again, with the PMI survey's gauge of selling prices (goods and services) at an 18-month high in January according to the flash estimate.