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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles
@chrisgiles.ft.com
25K followers 350 following 730 posts
Economics Commentator, Financial Times; Honorary Professor of Practice, UCL Policy Lab Sign up to my central banks newsletter here https://ep.ft.com/newsletters/subscribe?newsletterIds=6501cc9ec6e3c91c18b0b9e6
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 10h
Thanks. What I thought but more eloquently put
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 11h
That's the point - if it is offset with a reduction in entitlements to welfare for Scottish residents (ie a UK wide change) fairness would suggest there should be a consequence north of the border... but it is complicated
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 13h
Calling all public finance experts...

... Am I right in thinking the Conservatives would need to give a bung to Scotland and Wales from abolishing Englandd and Wales residential stamp duty under Barnet consequentials?
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 16h
Bessent is just a weird guy with inconsistent views. Once you accept that, all becomes easier to understand
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 16h
Perhaps food in Vs restaurants??

Don't quite think it is big enough. But we don't know coz data
chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17h
Yes - that old chestnut
chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17h
This is not the first time (see inflation and VED). The ONS should check figures it receives...OBR flagged it and they have far fewer staff
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17h
still - receipts are still underperforming NGDP, which remains weird
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17h
No - makes our hole smaller
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17h
The VAT thing didn't pass the sniff test - it felt wrong, the OBR commented on it. ONS should have asked more questions
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17h
Excellent overview of the backlash against QE globally...

... let's be clear though. The losses are everywhere, but unlike the UK which accounts for them upfront, they are generally brushed under a carpet elsewhere (they still exist though)
on.ft.com/4mTPho6
The populist shadow hanging over central banks and QE
[FREE TO READ] The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities. The controversy could limit options in future crises
on.ft.com
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 20h
Very good news for the chancellor because VAT receipts were looking suspiciously low and , had it been genuine, that would have suggested tax raising capacity of UK economy was slipping
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 20h
There goes my long held view that cash government receipts were accurate because you just had to add some columns in a bank account

on.ft.com/3J0Y6yE ONS revises down government borrowing estimates after data error
ONS revises down UK government borrowing by £2bn after VAT error
[FREE TO READ] Office for National Statistics reduces estimate for current fiscal year just weeks before Rachel Reeves’ Budget
on.ft.com
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 1d
No - real reason was a fall in pork prices which were artificially high in 2019 due to African swine flu outbreak
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 1d
Ah yes - that's it. I excluded Turkiye from everything else because ... well, you know
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 1d
Yes - OECD data irritatingly had a huge Canadian-sized hole for recent data, so I had to drop it
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 1d
On 1), I downloaded the data from scratch again because your point worried me. The rise is definitively in the OECD data. I checked a number of other ones and they match my priors

No idea what is going on here...It's an OECD problem and it certainly isn't averaging OECD European countries
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 1d
Proximity to Russia and the Ukraine shock is clearly important
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 1d
1) good question - looks like something not quite right
2) It has been bad (but others can be worse) - look at inflation rates post referendum and the change from pre 2016
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 1d
Most people agree with you
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 1d
Of course - traditional central banking would say ignore food prices because they can be volatile - that's why core inflation measures exclude them
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 1d
Food prices have risen a lot more than other stuff since Covid...

My newsletter asks whether they are now a leading indicator of inflation

www.ft.com/content/de31...
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 6d
Not if they want to trade up. And lots of people in different positions. Overall, the effects are as I stated. There will be exceptions obviously
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chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 6d
Only if you think a 10% increase annually is acceptable.

That gives you a doubling in london plus the 5% general annual increase

I’d go slower
chrisgiles.ft.com
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 6d
It changes the number of properties in each band for each LA. And that get’s factored into the equalisation process across authorities. So all of London has to raise more and gets less grant with the reverse in the North of England
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