The Bush tax cuts and the Trump tax cuts are entirely to blame for our fiscal gap.

Entirely? Spending projections are down relative to old projections where we didn't have a fiscal gap, not up. That is, relative to projections where there was no problem, spending is down. So it's all revenue loss.

First, what happened? I'm looking at the fiscal gap, which measures the average primary (non-interest) deficit reduction needed to keep debt/GDP stable.

The Big Beautiful Bill made that 45% worse. And if OB3's temporary provisions are made permanent, it made our fiscal situation 76% worse.

Check out our work here. After including lost homes, we find that tariffs will add $18,500 to the cost to build a new home in 2028 (likely raising new home sticker prices by even more than that)

Thanks also to my colleagues @americanprogress.bsky.social

www.americanprogress.org/article/trum...

We take $30B ($27B on new homes) and survey the academic research for how that depresses construction, finding it will steadily grow from
🔽69k homes next year, to
⏬107k in 2030.

Bear in mind, the U.S. is already short 2 million homes (more by some estimates)

www.brookings.edu/articles/mak...

As groups like @nahb.bsky.social & @taxpolicycenter.bsky.social have said, new tariffs fall heavily on construction

$30B in tariffs/year increases prices for first-time homebuyers. They also make it entirely unprofitable to build some new homes

www.brookings.edu/articles/rec...

It seems crazy to be placing tariffs on homebuilding goods, given that:

➡️*One-Third* of all consumer expenditures are on housing—that’s larger than any other category.

➡️New home prices have risen 31% since 2021

➡️We have a housing shortage

➡️Inflation is stuck above target

Notably, the research finds that air pollution dropped even in areas outside of the Manhattan congestion pricing zone.

And of course all of NYC benefits from the extra revenue for the MTA system

Its more complicated than that (of course it is). They remain Trump Accounts with many special rules on distributions until age 31. Summarized well by @taxlawcenter.org here: taxlawcenter.org/blog/trump-a...

A different billionaire, Harold Alfond, made a donation in 2008 that automatically creates a 529 Account with $500 donation for every child born in Maine. This program has shown great results so far and is a model going forward
www.aspeninstitute.org/blog-posts/m...
/end

There was a better way.

Myself and other experts outlined a set of principles for children's’ wealth-building accounts. This proposal started out weak by our metrics and has only gotten worse in rulemaking
www.urban.org/urban-wire/h...
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So will this donation help catalyze savings for children? Hard to see how. If a family wants to save for their child’s future, a 529 College Account remains the best, least-taxed way.

Only extremely rich people who have maxed out their 529 account will want to save in a “Trump Acct”
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Second, the Admin. sabotaged this program out of the gate.

Instead of the Admin creating accounts automatically when a baby citizen is assigned a SSN #, parents will have to file an IRS Form 4547 to create one for their child.

Many poor people will not do this, and will not get a donation

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