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Clyde Russell

@clydecommods.bsky.social

530 followers 140 following 120 posts

Asia Commodities Columnist at Reuters Open Interest, the market commentary service of Thomson Reuters. Focusing on oil, gas, metals, coal, iron ore, renewable energies and government policy.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · 6d

Crude oil has been driven this year by OPEC+ unwinding output cuts, China storing vast volumes and geopolitical tensions. These dynamics remain in play, but the problem is that all three are inherently unpredictable and subject to rapid changes. #crude #energy #OPEC www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

OPEC, China and geopolitics are the triple whammy of uncertainty for crude

The unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts, China storage flows and geopolitical tensions have been the primary drivers of crude oil prices this year, and are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · 10d

Many of the minerals deemed critical to the #energy transition are marooned in a purgatory of low prices while waiting for the anticipated demand to solve the current oversupply. While it will likely happen, it may take longer than anticipated. #criticalminerals www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Critical minerals are stuck between demand hopes and oversupply reality

Definitions vary as to which minerals and metals are genuinely critical, but one thing is certain. The prices of many of them are currently weak and not reflecting their supposed importance to the global energy transition.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · 15d

With prices near 4-year lows and mines being closed it would seem odd to have a bullish outlook for metallurgical #coal. But the scaling back of green steel ambitions and the construction of coal-based furnaces across Asia are creating a longer-term positive picture. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Metallurgical coal is set to rise from the doldrums as green steel ambition fades

An industry that is shutting down some production as prices hover around four-year lows and higher taxes bite doesn't sound like it should be particularly bullish.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · 16d

The Asian coal industry held its annual gathering this week in Bali and the contrast between the robust domestic markets of the Big 3 of China, India and Indonesia and the subdued outlook for the seaborne exporters was very much in evidence. #coal #energy #climate www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The Big Three of Asia's thermal coal look healthy, others pale

Asia dominates the global thermal coal market but the future is looking increasingly split between robust domestic markets in the three heavyweights of China, India and Indonesia and a gradually fading seaborne market.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · 21d

The strength seen in China’s imports of seaborne thermal coal in August is on track to extend into September, helping prices for key Indonesian and Australian grades recover from 4-year lows. But the boost is likely to prove temporary. #coal #energy #mining www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · 23d

China’s steel sector continued to soften in August with output slipping to an eight-month low. But iron ore imports are robust and are set to rise again in September after a strong August, showing hope for a recovery in #steel demand remains the key driver. #ironore www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Soft China steel output shrugged off by robust iron ore

The divergence between China's soft steel sector and its robust appetite for imported iron ore widened in August, highlighting the difference between reality and hope.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · 24d

To store or not to store, that is the China question. China’s surplus #crude jumped to just over 1 million bpd in August as imports and domestic output rose faster than refinery use. The question is will China keep buying more than it needs or wait for prices to fall. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China keeps building crude oil stockpiles even as processing gains

China's surplus crude surged to just over 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in August as robust imports and domestic production trumped an increase in refinery processing.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · 28d

While the focus is often on short-term price drivers in #crude markets, there are two longer-term trends that will shape flows. The first is the gain in supply is from the Americas but demand growth is in Asia. The second is the rising politicisation of oil markets. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Crude oil to be driven longer-term by supply-demand mismatch, geopolitics

The global crude oil market is facing two long-term fundamental shifts that will change how cargoes flow around the world and how they are priced.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Sep 9

The consensus view at this week’s APPEC oil event in Singapore was that it’s not a matter of if #crude prices are heading lower, it’s more of when and by how much. OPEC+ adding back barrels and the Trump risks to the global economy fuelled the gloom. #OPEC www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Crude oil sentiment swings to lower prices as bearish factors mount

Sentiment in the crude oil market has shifted to expecting prices to decline, with the debate at the industry's biggest gathering in Asia more about timing than direction.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Sep 5

The nearly $19 billion bid by Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC for Australian #LNG producer Santos is facing questions about the deal's value to Australia’s #energy sector. The old argument of you don’t sell foreigners the cow, you sell them the milk may see the deal knocked back. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

ADNOC will have to offer more than money for Santos deal to work

The $18.7 billion bid by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) for Australian liquefied natural gas producer Santos is facing a far higher hurdle than just the amount of money on offer.

www.reuters.com

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Sep 2

Asia’s crude oil imports rose sharply in August from July, but it may be a reflection of lower prices at the time cargoes were arranged rather than an increase in demand. #crude #energy #OPEC #commodities www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Asia crude oil imports surge in August, but is it demand or prices?

Asia's imports of crude oil rebounded in August as heavyweight buyers China and India bought more crude from top exporters in the Middle East.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 27

Donald Trump’s 50% #tariffs on imports from India may backfire insofar as Indian attitudes may harden and it will take the pain and keep buying Russian #crude as well as finding friends in U.S. opponents like China. The only obvious winner so far is Russia’s Putin. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

India, US to lose from Trump tariffs as Russia wins

The United States imposed tariffs of up to 50% on imports of goods from India on Wednesday in a move that is a textbook example of a lose-lose situation for both countries, but perversely is a win for the intended target, Russia.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 26

China’s LNG imports are set to rise for a 4th month in August. While this may look like a robust recovery the key data point is that imports have still been weaker on a year-on-year basis for every month since October, as high spot prices bite. #LNG #energy #natgas www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China's LNG imports are set to rise for a 4th month, but it's not bullish

China's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are poised to rise for a fourth straight month in August, but this may not be quite as bullish as it first appears.

www.reuters.com

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 25

China’s seaborne imports of thermal #coal are poised to hit the highest this year in August while India may drop to the lowest in 3 years. The divergence is largely being driven by domestic output dynamics in both countries, but #renewables are playing a bigger role. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

China's seaborne thermal coal imports jump as India's stumble

China's imports of seaborne thermal coal are poised to climb to the most this year in August while those of fellow top buyer India slump to a 3 1/2-year low.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 21

Preliminary forecasts suggest a surge of US LNG is heading for Asia in October as some countries try to buy more in order to satisfy trade deals with the US. But even the increased volumes are likely to be well short of what President Trump is expecting. #LNG #energy www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Asia's imports of US LNG to surge, but likely not enough for Trump

There are early signs that some Asian countries are stepping up their imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of trade deals with President Donald Trump.

www.reuters.com

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 19

BHP blamed lower iron ore prices for its weakest underlying profit in five years. But with flat demand in China and new supply about to hit the market, the price outlook may darken further. #ironore #steel #mining #commodities www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Iron ore blamed for BHP's profit drop. It may get worse

Lower iron ore prices copped the blame for BHP Group reporting its lowest annual underlying profit for five years.

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Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 18

A consistent theme of #crude markets since March is that China has been importing (and producing) more oil than it is processing, leaving a substantial surplus for storage. This eased in July but Chinese refiners continue to build a war chest of stockpiled crude. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China still storing crude oil even as refinery runs rise: Russell

China's refiners lifted their processing rates in July, but strong crude oil imports and domestic output meant there was still a surplus of more than half a million barrels per day (bpd) available for storage.

www.reuters.com

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 14

Is Saudi Arabia really trying to regain market share with the OPEC+ decision to unwind the 2.2 million bpd of #crude output cuts? The Sept price hike suggests otherwise, as does a pullback in China’s Saudi imports and a pivot to cheaper Brazil and Angolan oil. #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Saudi crude oil price hike is at odds with regaining market share

OPEC+'s recent decision to fully unwind 2.2 million barrels per day of crude oil output cuts has largely been viewed as a sign the exporter group is pivoting from trying to bolster prices to rebuilding market share.

www.reuters.com

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 12

Australia gave a modest amount of money to allow Trafigura’s Nyrstar unit to continue to operate two metal refineries. But the $87 million is also a sign that Western governments may be getting serious about keeping and developing critical mineral supply chains. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Australia rescued a key metals refiner, but more is needed

It may seem like a small sum but the $87 million the Australian government is handing to two metal smelters owned by global commodity major Trafigura may turn out to be the start of a big deal.

www.reuters.com

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 11

Talking #commodities on ausbiz TV, taking a look at whether the recent rally in #lithium is a positive sign of things to come or a short-term boost on the back of a temporary mine closure. Also looking at #crude oil in the light of Donald Trump's threats to India. ausbiz.com.au/media/is-the...

Is there light at the end of lithium's dark tunnel? on ausbiz

<p>Key points:</p><ul><li><p>Lithium market sees renewed optimism as demand rises and oversupply fears ease</p></li><li><p>Gold prices impacted by US tariff rumours but expected to consolidate</p></li...

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 11

The oil market is currently pricing for zero impact from Donald Trump’s tariffs threats to India over its ongoing purchases of Russian #crude. Whether this is the correct call will depend on whether Trump is serious about gaining leverage over Russia’s Putin. #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The crude oil market bets Trump's India threats are hollow

The crude oil market's rather sanguine reaction to the U.S. threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen.

www.reuters.com

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 7

China’s imports of major commodities in July did little to help discern a clear trend so far in 2025. Rather they reinforce the view that price levels are now the major driver in month-by-month moves, with crude oil being a good example. #crude #coal #copper #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Take your pick. China's commodity imports can be solid or soft

Markets often look to data such as China's imports of major commodities to discern clear trends about the state of the world's second-biggest economy.

www.reuters.com

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 5

Asia’s seaborne thermal coal imports rose in July from June, a tentative reversal of the declining trend seen so far this year. But the gain was led by North Asia’s developed economies and not heavyweight buyers China and India. #coal #energy #renewables #mining www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Asia thermal coal imports rise in July as Japan, South Korea buy

Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal ticked up in July, but the increase was driven by the developed economies of North Asia and not heavyweights China and India.

www.reuters.com

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Aug 4

It was always likely that the eight members of OPEC+ would fully unwind their voluntary output cuts by September, especially since geopolitical tensions and threats to Russian #crude have kept prices near $70. So far #OPEC+ has been lucky, how long can this continue. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

OPEC+ gets lucky as it brings back oil output amid uncertainty

A couple of months ago it would have been a brave call to say that OPEC+ would be able to bring back 2.5 million barrels per day of crude production and still keep oil prices anchored around $70 a barrel.

www.reuters.com

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Jul 31

Iron ore prices have been remarkably stable this year, most likely because imports by top buyer China have held up, with July on track to stay above 100 million tons. But mounting worries over soft Chinese #steel output makes a bullish outlook for #ironore difficult. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China iron ore imports hold up as storm clouds gather

Iron ore remains a standout performer among major commodities this year as it holds above $100 a metric ton despite mounting signs that the steel sector in top importer China is softening.

www.reuters.com