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Will Lowe

@conjugateprior.org

3.3K followers 730 following 9.4K posts

Señor Research Scientist, NPC at the Hertie School in Berlin 🇩🇪 via Princeton, Mannheim, Edinburgh and a bunch of other ivory towers that will probably be billiard balls and decorative boxes by the end of the decade. Rome Statute appreciator.

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · Apr 15

For Monty Hall problem aficionados: a #causal DAG, with explanation in the alt text.

Who knew that the M in M-bias stood for Monty?

A DAG for the Monty Hall problem.

G, the door Monty opens, is a function of your first door choice D_F and of where the car is C.

Conditioning on G, which happens because it determines your door choices when you have the opportunity to switch, induces collider bias between C and D_F, such that they are now less likely to be equal. (Why? because G cannot be C and G cannot be D_F. These are in the same 'direction' so, conditional on G, D_F is less likely to be C.)

You decide to switch conditional on G, which you just observed, and D_F, because that defines what you can switch to.

Conditional on G you now know D_F is less likely to be equal to C. So you switch.

Note: In the original problem, W is a deterministic function of C and D_S so it's slightly cheeky to put it in a DAG, but I'm going to do so anyway. The argument doesn't require it, but if you want to think informally about opening paths to W from D_F via C, it's helpful.

That makes this problem a variation on M-bias (or a clipped wing butterfly bias, if you prefer insects to goats).

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 1h

omnomnom

bart simpson and lisa simpson are standing in front of a house made of gingerbread

Alt: The bars are to stop them getting out, obvs.

media.tenor.com

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 2h

Perhaps we could persuade the Greens to put together complementary legislation that would rename Gummibären and suchlike?

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 2h

Maybe grab a Fruchtzwerg or a Flutschfinger for after then? That should cover the fat and gristle. Unless you're telling me that...

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 4h

Aha, das muss das traditionelle amerikanische Spiel "Hide the Sausage" sein, von dem ich so viel gehört habe.

Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 4h

und laut Wittgenstein "Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, da es ist ja über ekel digga, muss man schweigen".

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 5h

Gegen Kant, es ist nicht dass man das Ding-an-sich der Wurst nicht sehen kann, sondern dass man es nicht sehen will.

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 5h

Kostenlose schlechte Werbeidee: Eine vegetarische Wurst namens (natürlich) "Vurst" und beworben von einer Cartoon-Wurstfigur namens "Fürst von Vurst". Wenn ein Gegner gebraucht wird, regiert der "Worst von Wurst" im nächsten Fürstentum entlang.

Ganz ehrlich, hätte ich im Marketing arbeiten sollen.

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 5h

Let me guess, the underneath says "und wir mögen es so"

Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 5h

I mean, I do live here 😉

I suspect we keep Dr Marten's in business too.

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 6h

Berlin not beating the '90s teen bedroom decor' rap here 😁

www.slowtravelberlin.com @slowberlin.bsky.social · 6h

Mucha in Pankow ❤️ #jungendstil #berlin

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 6h

I may be missing something, but there's nothing special about 15 years ago either. Poland just... grows.

Polish GDP yearly growth rate 1991-2024. Looks like 2-6% a year since 1991

Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 6h

An uncharitable interpretation is that that is a device for making sure you don't accidentally kill the person you're torturing.

Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 7h

True. Wherever there's context, it can collapse.

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 8h

I mean, I'm hardly the biggest fan of the place, but hfs these folk seem to hate it with a depth and intensity that would have me wondering if it wasn't perhaps time to have a short chat with a licensed professional.

Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 10h

Keine echten Zwerge in meinem Fruchtzwerg? Als Nächstes wirst du noch behaupten, dass mein Flutschfinger nicht aus Fingern besteht. smh

Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 10h

bariance not the variance of a barycenter then? smh

Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 21h

"context relapse"