We're still working through everything for clients, but I'll be posting more on the issue soon. Thoughts/questions? Be in touch.

(For industry folks: yes, these materials have more uses -- ~70 that we track internally -- but these are top econ, security, and political concerns.)

3/5: Bismuth (including powders, blocks, and other forms) – an alloying agent, among its other niche industrial purposes
4/5: Molybdenum (including alloys) – used in various "superalloys"
5/5: Indium (including semiconductor material InP) – key to many (including high-end and strategic) electronics

1/5: Tungsten (including tungsten oxide, tungsten carbide, and myriad solid tungsten products) – the basis of some of the world's strongest metals
2/5: Tellurium (including industrial alloys) – used in semiconductors and steel

China's initial, country-agnostic controls were a message saying "don't test us", @coryjcombs.bsky.social told me. As well as a political signal, he said, their main aim was to improve China’s understanding of how the minerals it processed were being used

Like other analysts, we're skeptical of Beijing's current international enforcement capabilities -- but Beijing will invest in developing them moving forward.

2) The ban's extra-territorial application sets a new precedent and trajectory for export controls.
- Beijing aims to prevent domestic firms from seeking loopholes, including re-exports via third countries.
- But it also sends a warning to US trading partners not to circumvent Chinese controls.

1) The clampdown is both an escalation from prior retaliation and a strategically measured response:
- Escalatory in shifting from licensing requirements to outright blocks
- Measured in that it maintains current scope, hitting back at tech companies rather than expanding into broader trade measures