🚨 New from Indeed Hiring Lab: The Relationship Between Economic Trends and Time to Hire
During the post-pandemic hiring boom of 2021 and 2022, job postings and quits surged, and employers sped up hiring to lock in workers. The labor market has cooled since then, and hiring is taking longer.
During the post-pandemic hiring boom of 2021 and 2022, job postings and quits surged, and employers sped up hiring to lock in workers. The labor market has cooled since then, and hiring is taking longer.
May 9, 2025 at 2:39 PM
🚨 New from Indeed Hiring Lab: The Relationship Between Economic Trends and Time to Hire
During the post-pandemic hiring boom of 2021 and 2022, job postings and quits surged, and employers sped up hiring to lock in workers. The labor market has cooled since then, and hiring is taking longer.
During the post-pandemic hiring boom of 2021 and 2022, job postings and quits surged, and employers sped up hiring to lock in workers. The labor market has cooled since then, and hiring is taking longer.
However, there are some signs of underlying weakness in the household survey side of today's job report.
The share of workers who were long-term unemployed (out of work for 27 weeks or more) continues to creep up and jumped to 23.5% in April, the highest share in three years.
#numbersday
The share of workers who were long-term unemployed (out of work for 27 weeks or more) continues to creep up and jumped to 23.5% in April, the highest share in three years.
#numbersday
May 2, 2025 at 1:27 PM
However, there are some signs of underlying weakness in the household survey side of today's job report.
The share of workers who were long-term unemployed (out of work for 27 weeks or more) continues to creep up and jumped to 23.5% in April, the highest share in three years.
#numbersday
The share of workers who were long-term unemployed (out of work for 27 weeks or more) continues to creep up and jumped to 23.5% in April, the highest share in three years.
#numbersday
Solid jobs report, but the headline data doesn't match the vibes.
- Jobs: Up 177k
- Unemployment: Flat at 4.2%
- Healthcare jobs: +51k, transportation and warehousing: +29k, federal government: -9k
Good for now, but the market can’t escape rapidly souring business and consumer confidence forever.
- Jobs: Up 177k
- Unemployment: Flat at 4.2%
- Healthcare jobs: +51k, transportation and warehousing: +29k, federal government: -9k
Good for now, but the market can’t escape rapidly souring business and consumer confidence forever.
May 2, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Solid jobs report, but the headline data doesn't match the vibes.
- Jobs: Up 177k
- Unemployment: Flat at 4.2%
- Healthcare jobs: +51k, transportation and warehousing: +29k, federal government: -9k
Good for now, but the market can’t escape rapidly souring business and consumer confidence forever.
- Jobs: Up 177k
- Unemployment: Flat at 4.2%
- Healthcare jobs: +51k, transportation and warehousing: +29k, federal government: -9k
Good for now, but the market can’t escape rapidly souring business and consumer confidence forever.
Today’s (March) JOLTS data offers another glimpse of labor market conditions – but only from the rearview mirror.
- Job openings: Down 288k from Feb, but down 901k from Mar 2024.
- Layoffs: Low overall at 1.0%
- Hires rate: Stable near 2013 levels
- Quits: Trending up so far this year, now at 2.1%
- Job openings: Down 288k from Feb, but down 901k from Mar 2024.
- Layoffs: Low overall at 1.0%
- Hires rate: Stable near 2013 levels
- Quits: Trending up so far this year, now at 2.1%
April 29, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Today’s (March) JOLTS data offers another glimpse of labor market conditions – but only from the rearview mirror.
- Job openings: Down 288k from Feb, but down 901k from Mar 2024.
- Layoffs: Low overall at 1.0%
- Hires rate: Stable near 2013 levels
- Quits: Trending up so far this year, now at 2.1%
- Job openings: Down 288k from Feb, but down 901k from Mar 2024.
- Layoffs: Low overall at 1.0%
- Hires rate: Stable near 2013 levels
- Quits: Trending up so far this year, now at 2.1%
Today's JOLTS report showed that the US labor market remained stable (frozen?) in January.
A lot has obviously happened since January that didn't show up in this report. More recent data from the Indeed Job Postings Index suggests a potential scenario of renewed cooling in the coming months.
A lot has obviously happened since January that didn't show up in this report. More recent data from the Indeed Job Postings Index suggests a potential scenario of renewed cooling in the coming months.
March 11, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Today's JOLTS report showed that the US labor market remained stable (frozen?) in January.
A lot has obviously happened since January that didn't show up in this report. More recent data from the Indeed Job Postings Index suggests a potential scenario of renewed cooling in the coming months.
A lot has obviously happened since January that didn't show up in this report. More recent data from the Indeed Job Postings Index suggests a potential scenario of renewed cooling in the coming months.
Other CPS concerns: People working part-time due to economic reasons spiked in February. While the number is noisy from month to month, it has shown a clear increase since January 2023.
Weekly hours have been in steady decline since late 2021, but have dropped more sharply in recent reports.
Weekly hours have been in steady decline since late 2021, but have dropped more sharply in recent reports.
March 7, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Other CPS concerns: People working part-time due to economic reasons spiked in February. While the number is noisy from month to month, it has shown a clear increase since January 2023.
Weekly hours have been in steady decline since late 2021, but have dropped more sharply in recent reports.
Weekly hours have been in steady decline since late 2021, but have dropped more sharply in recent reports.
Beyond the concern of federal government job losses, some continuations of not-so-great trends in the household survey.
Prime-age labor force participation is trending down and for men is back to where it was before the pandemic.
Prime-age labor force participation is trending down and for men is back to where it was before the pandemic.
March 7, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Beyond the concern of federal government job losses, some continuations of not-so-great trends in the household survey.
Prime-age labor force participation is trending down and for men is back to where it was before the pandemic.
Prime-age labor force participation is trending down and for men is back to where it was before the pandemic.
Feb 2025 Jobs Day takeaways:
- Solid headline job growth numbers: +151,000
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.1% but remains low
- Federal employment fell by 10,000, but the total number was likely higher, given data collection that happened relatively early in February.
- Solid headline job growth numbers: +151,000
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.1% but remains low
- Federal employment fell by 10,000, but the total number was likely higher, given data collection that happened relatively early in February.
March 7, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Feb 2025 Jobs Day takeaways:
- Solid headline job growth numbers: +151,000
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.1% but remains low
- Federal employment fell by 10,000, but the total number was likely higher, given data collection that happened relatively early in February.
- Solid headline job growth numbers: +151,000
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.1% but remains low
- Federal employment fell by 10,000, but the total number was likely higher, given data collection that happened relatively early in February.
Despite the generally sturdy foundation, there are a few small cracks worth monitoring. Hiring and quitting remain near decade lows, and growth in prime-age labor force participation is showing signs of slowing. In the next report, we'll also get a feel for the impact of California wildfires.
February 7, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Despite the generally sturdy foundation, there are a few small cracks worth monitoring. Hiring and quitting remain near decade lows, and growth in prime-age labor force participation is showing signs of slowing. In the next report, we'll also get a feel for the impact of California wildfires.
Revisions put a fresh coat of paint on today's jobs report but didn't change the story.
This is still a solid labor market defined by low unemployment, low layoffs, and payroll gains above the estimated 100,000 needed to keep up with population growth.
#numbersday
This is still a solid labor market defined by low unemployment, low layoffs, and payroll gains above the estimated 100,000 needed to keep up with population growth.
#numbersday
February 7, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Revisions put a fresh coat of paint on today's jobs report but didn't change the story.
This is still a solid labor market defined by low unemployment, low layoffs, and payroll gains above the estimated 100,000 needed to keep up with population growth.
#numbersday
This is still a solid labor market defined by low unemployment, low layoffs, and payroll gains above the estimated 100,000 needed to keep up with population growth.
#numbersday
Today's JOLTS report continued to show potential signs of labor market stabilization with several measures moving sideways from the previous month.
- Quits rate low but unchanged @ 2%
- Hires rate low but unchanged @ 3.4%
Read my full statement here: www.hiringlab.org/2025/02/04/d...
- Quits rate low but unchanged @ 2%
- Hires rate low but unchanged @ 3.4%
Read my full statement here: www.hiringlab.org/2025/02/04/d...
February 4, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Today's JOLTS report continued to show potential signs of labor market stabilization with several measures moving sideways from the previous month.
- Quits rate low but unchanged @ 2%
- Hires rate low but unchanged @ 3.4%
Read my full statement here: www.hiringlab.org/2025/02/04/d...
- Quits rate low but unchanged @ 2%
- Hires rate low but unchanged @ 3.4%
Read my full statement here: www.hiringlab.org/2025/02/04/d...
More evidence of Chair Powell's statement that “the labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures” in today's ECI data.
- YoY private-sector wage growth down to 3.6% in Q4 (compared to 4.3% the year before)
- Clear quarterly and annual slowing for among ex-incentive paid jobs
- YoY private-sector wage growth down to 3.6% in Q4 (compared to 4.3% the year before)
- Clear quarterly and annual slowing for among ex-incentive paid jobs
January 31, 2025 at 2:33 PM
More evidence of Chair Powell's statement that “the labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures” in today's ECI data.
- YoY private-sector wage growth down to 3.6% in Q4 (compared to 4.3% the year before)
- Clear quarterly and annual slowing for among ex-incentive paid jobs
- YoY private-sector wage growth down to 3.6% in Q4 (compared to 4.3% the year before)
- Clear quarterly and annual slowing for among ex-incentive paid jobs
We'll get a clearer picture of 2024's labor market after revisions next month.
For now, I would characterize 2024 as a tale of two halves. Some concerns around rising unemployment, declining hires & quits in the first half of the year. Started seeing signs of stabilizing in the second half though.
For now, I would characterize 2024 as a tale of two halves. Some concerns around rising unemployment, declining hires & quits in the first half of the year. Started seeing signs of stabilizing in the second half though.
January 10, 2025 at 2:24 PM
We'll get a clearer picture of 2024's labor market after revisions next month.
For now, I would characterize 2024 as a tale of two halves. Some concerns around rising unemployment, declining hires & quits in the first half of the year. Started seeing signs of stabilizing in the second half though.
For now, I would characterize 2024 as a tale of two halves. Some concerns around rising unemployment, declining hires & quits in the first half of the year. Started seeing signs of stabilizing in the second half though.
Final jobs report of 2024 was a good one!
- Job gains beat expectations, up +256,000
- Unemployment is down to 4.1%, but more importantly, it seems to be stable over the last 6 months.
- Prime-age EPOP still concerning and looking dangerously close to reversing its multi-year increasing trend.
- Job gains beat expectations, up +256,000
- Unemployment is down to 4.1%, but more importantly, it seems to be stable over the last 6 months.
- Prime-age EPOP still concerning and looking dangerously close to reversing its multi-year increasing trend.
January 10, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Final jobs report of 2024 was a good one!
- Job gains beat expectations, up +256,000
- Unemployment is down to 4.1%, but more importantly, it seems to be stable over the last 6 months.
- Prime-age EPOP still concerning and looking dangerously close to reversing its multi-year increasing trend.
- Job gains beat expectations, up +256,000
- Unemployment is down to 4.1%, but more importantly, it seems to be stable over the last 6 months.
- Prime-age EPOP still concerning and looking dangerously close to reversing its multi-year increasing trend.
Why are retail hires rates lower now than before the pandemic?
In short, retail workers aren't quitting or getting laid off.
Retail layoffs are much lower now than pre-pandemic (1.1% in Nov 2024 vs. 1.9% in Feb 2020). Quits are also down from 3.4% in 2020 to 2.5% today.
#jolts #bls #econsky
In short, retail workers aren't quitting or getting laid off.
Retail layoffs are much lower now than pre-pandemic (1.1% in Nov 2024 vs. 1.9% in Feb 2020). Quits are also down from 3.4% in 2020 to 2.5% today.
#jolts #bls #econsky
January 7, 2025 at 3:57 PM
It's hard to talk about November JOLTS data without mentioning the retail industry. Job postings for seasonal/holiday work on Indeed were below trend in November.
The hires rate for retail workers in today's JOLTS report was 3.9%, well below the 5.4% pre-pandemic rate.
The hires rate for retail workers in today's JOLTS report was 3.9%, well below the 5.4% pre-pandemic rate.
January 7, 2025 at 3:49 PM
It's hard to talk about November JOLTS data without mentioning the retail industry. Job postings for seasonal/holiday work on Indeed were below trend in November.
The hires rate for retail workers in today's JOLTS report was 3.9%, well below the 5.4% pre-pandemic rate.
The hires rate for retail workers in today's JOLTS report was 3.9%, well below the 5.4% pre-pandemic rate.
High-earning workers (4th quartile) experienced the greatest drop in real wage growth in 2021 and 2022 but they have recovered since.
December 12, 2024 at 7:59 PM
High-earning workers (4th quartile) experienced the greatest drop in real wage growth in 2021 and 2022 but they have recovered since.
According to November CPI and Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker data, a majority of workers are getting inflation-adjusted raises (57% in Nov).
That is much higher than a 43% low in May 2022. However, the share has leveled off since summer 2023 and now sits around pre-pandemic levels.
That is much higher than a 43% low in May 2022. However, the share has leveled off since summer 2023 and now sits around pre-pandemic levels.
December 12, 2024 at 7:46 PM
According to November CPI and Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker data, a majority of workers are getting inflation-adjusted raises (57% in Nov).
That is much higher than a 43% low in May 2022. However, the share has leveled off since summer 2023 and now sits around pre-pandemic levels.
That is much higher than a 43% low in May 2022. However, the share has leveled off since summer 2023 and now sits around pre-pandemic levels.
Retail trade shed 28,000 jobs in November.
Indeed data shows a similar story: employer demand for holiday hires fell below the trend in November. Holiday hiring kicked off around the same time in 2024 and rose in line with 2019 levels before flattening in November.
Indeed data shows a similar story: employer demand for holiday hires fell below the trend in November. Holiday hiring kicked off around the same time in 2024 and rose in line with 2019 levels before flattening in November.
December 6, 2024 at 7:29 PM
Retail trade shed 28,000 jobs in November.
Indeed data shows a similar story: employer demand for holiday hires fell below the trend in November. Holiday hiring kicked off around the same time in 2024 and rose in line with 2019 levels before flattening in November.
Indeed data shows a similar story: employer demand for holiday hires fell below the trend in November. Holiday hiring kicked off around the same time in 2024 and rose in line with 2019 levels before flattening in November.
Retail also shed -28,000 (seasonally adjusted) jobs in November, signaling some cooling there. May also have some impact from a later Black Friday that delayed hiring beyond the data collection period.
Consumer spending reports have still been encouraging, but good to keep an eye on.
Consumer spending reports have still been encouraging, but good to keep an eye on.
December 6, 2024 at 3:10 PM
Retail also shed -28,000 (seasonally adjusted) jobs in November, signaling some cooling there. May also have some impact from a later Black Friday that delayed hiring beyond the data collection period.
Consumer spending reports have still been encouraging, but good to keep an eye on.
Consumer spending reports have still been encouraging, but good to keep an eye on.
Jobs day takeaways:
Concerning factors:
- Prime-age EPOP is down half a percentage point in the last two months.
- The unemployment rate ticked up (4.1% > 4.2%) while civilian labor force declined (-193,000). Unemployment is still low, but it is not encouraging to see the labor force shrink.
Concerning factors:
- Prime-age EPOP is down half a percentage point in the last two months.
- The unemployment rate ticked up (4.1% > 4.2%) while civilian labor force declined (-193,000). Unemployment is still low, but it is not encouraging to see the labor force shrink.
December 6, 2024 at 3:10 PM
Jobs day takeaways:
Concerning factors:
- Prime-age EPOP is down half a percentage point in the last two months.
- The unemployment rate ticked up (4.1% > 4.2%) while civilian labor force declined (-193,000). Unemployment is still low, but it is not encouraging to see the labor force shrink.
Concerning factors:
- Prime-age EPOP is down half a percentage point in the last two months.
- The unemployment rate ticked up (4.1% > 4.2%) while civilian labor force declined (-193,000). Unemployment is still low, but it is not encouraging to see the labor force shrink.
Jobs day takeaways:
Good:
- The (literal) clouds that overshadowed October's report parted, added +227,000 jobs in Nov, Oct revised up to +36,000 (from the initial report of +12,000).
- Average hourly earnings have cooled but remain robust which signals continued demand for workers.
Good:
- The (literal) clouds that overshadowed October's report parted, added +227,000 jobs in Nov, Oct revised up to +36,000 (from the initial report of +12,000).
- Average hourly earnings have cooled but remain robust which signals continued demand for workers.
December 6, 2024 at 3:10 PM
Jobs day takeaways:
Good:
- The (literal) clouds that overshadowed October's report parted, added +227,000 jobs in Nov, Oct revised up to +36,000 (from the initial report of +12,000).
- Average hourly earnings have cooled but remain robust which signals continued demand for workers.
Good:
- The (literal) clouds that overshadowed October's report parted, added +227,000 jobs in Nov, Oct revised up to +36,000 (from the initial report of +12,000).
- Average hourly earnings have cooled but remain robust which signals continued demand for workers.
The fact that the labor market has cooled consistently since 2022 without detrimental rises in layoffs is remarkable.
Employers have pulled back on hiring, but they are keeping their existing workers.
Layoffs are lower than (or the same as) pre-pandemic in just about every industry.
Employers have pulled back on hiring, but they are keeping their existing workers.
Layoffs are lower than (or the same as) pre-pandemic in just about every industry.
December 3, 2024 at 4:14 PM
The fact that the labor market has cooled consistently since 2022 without detrimental rises in layoffs is remarkable.
Employers have pulled back on hiring, but they are keeping their existing workers.
Layoffs are lower than (or the same as) pre-pandemic in just about every industry.
Employers have pulled back on hiring, but they are keeping their existing workers.
Layoffs are lower than (or the same as) pre-pandemic in just about every industry.
Today’s JOLTS report was reasonably good!
- Job openings ticked up to 7.7 million (from 7.4).
- The quits rate rose for the first time in 17 months.
- Layoff rate = 1.0 -> Below pre-pandemic all-time lows.
Hires rate weak at 3.3%, but could be a blip given slight pickup in recent months.
- Job openings ticked up to 7.7 million (from 7.4).
- The quits rate rose for the first time in 17 months.
- Layoff rate = 1.0 -> Below pre-pandemic all-time lows.
Hires rate weak at 3.3%, but could be a blip given slight pickup in recent months.
December 3, 2024 at 3:40 PM
Today’s JOLTS report was reasonably good!
- Job openings ticked up to 7.7 million (from 7.4).
- The quits rate rose for the first time in 17 months.
- Layoff rate = 1.0 -> Below pre-pandemic all-time lows.
Hires rate weak at 3.3%, but could be a blip given slight pickup in recent months.
- Job openings ticked up to 7.7 million (from 7.4).
- The quits rate rose for the first time in 17 months.
- Layoff rate = 1.0 -> Below pre-pandemic all-time lows.
Hires rate weak at 3.3%, but could be a blip given slight pickup in recent months.