AngelList data: Best time to sell (IRR basis) is year 8, with value concentrating in years 9-12. Partial sales in years 5-7 (post 3-year deployment) are optimal.

www.angellist.com/learn/tvpi

Later rounds include terms like IPO ratchet clauses, overvaluing early shares. Square’s 2015 IPO showed preferred shares got $93M extra, proving overvaluation.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Big winners absorb huge capital from mega VC funds, re-risking startups. Late-stage mega rounds can push risk back to maximum, despite appearing “safer.”

x.com/robgo/status...

A common misconception: investments always grow in value over time, so GPs should hold to maturity.

This has slowed the adoption of secondary transactions.

It’s also not true—investments often stagnate or fail outright, challenging the idea of consistent growth in portfolio value.

The IPO problem is not a market problem. Public stocks are doing great.

IPOs are not slow because of "the market", and M&A is not slow because of Lina Khan.

Companies that are in good shape for an IPO, do go public. Attractive targets for M&A, do get acquired.

It’s just a pricing problem.