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Reposted by Chris Fogarty, PhD

Jim Abraham @yhzweatherguy.bsky.social · 5h

Thanks to our citizen science volunteers for sharing rainfall data. While the Thanksgiving weekend is dry, later next week shows signs of the start of a somewhat damp period.
Bring it on!

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 12h

Am I reading the Virginia Key tidal timeseries correctly...is that a water level about 1 ft above general tide prediction?

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 14h

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 14h

Significant change in airmass ... Thursday much cooler with changing weather from hour-to-hour (and minute-to-minute in some cases). Cloud/sun/showers 'puffy clouds' ... could even see some 'graupel' (type of ice pellet) mixed in. #nswx #pewx

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 16h

Finally some rain for you!

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 1d

High-res weather model rainfall forecast from the cold front tonight (1st image) and from sea-effect cold showers in the NW winds behind it (2nd image). Some of the peak amounts may be overdone but gives an idea of pattern and areas to expect some drought relief. #nswx #pewx

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 1d

Almost looks like a warm-core low trying to form over the relative warmth of the Great Lakes.

Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 1d

With the full moon being "largest" closest to earth this week, tides are extra high overall - even if local weather is pleasant. The impacts are most pronounced in places like Florida.

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 2d

The significant ongoing tidal flooding event in the #Miami area is caused by a few coincident components:
1) the full moon on October 6, which happens to be near perigee (October 8)
2) sea level rise adds ~8 inches to the baseline sea level used in NOAA tide predictions

#KingTide
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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 2d

The drought effects did indeed seem discernible recently: bsky.app/profile/cycl...

Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 21d

The drought has been so pronounced that the effects are discernible in satellite imagery. Here is a comparison with mid September last year. Note the yellow/brown agricultural lands compared to generally greener ones a year prior.

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 2d

High-resolution Sentinel satellite views over New Glasgow and area - two cloudless snapshots: Aug 17 and today, Oct 6 showcasing the fall colors.

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 3d

Nice plots Brain. What are some of the key roads/infrastructure around Miami area that are to likely be impacted by the 'moderate' flooding expected Oct 8?

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 3d

@hail4breakfast.bsky.social

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 3d

Normal conditions before fire/foliage change (Sept 2):

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 3d

View of George Lake fire as of Saturday Oct 4. Note the fire break around edge by dozers (looks like winding logging road). Foliage color change apparent as well. #nswx

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 5d

Noticed that as well on my stroll - here late. Took a couple snaps.

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 6d

Low temperatures last night around Nova Scotia. Lows across PEI were in the 4 to 7C range. #nswx #pewx

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 8d

Cooler airmass today ... this afternoon large cumulus cloud buildup and likely showers into evening with sunny intervals. Don't be shocked if you see some small hail (ice pellets) during the showers with temperature drop below 10C. Low freezing level around 4500 ft (1300m). #nswx #pewx

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Reposted by Chris Fogarty, PhD

Zoom Earth @zoom.earth · 8d

#Humberto and #Imelda are so close to each other that their circulating winds cancel each other out in a calm “col” area in between them.

🇧🇲 Bermuda needs to be on alert however as Imelda will likely cause flash flooding and damaging waves from Wednesday into Thursday.

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 9d

Clear as a bell out there today and quite warm. #nswx #pewx Temps in C. 25C = 77F.

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 10d

Comp of satellite imagery from a) late Aug '25 (before fall colors), b) late Sept '25 and c) late Sept '22. Presence of fall colors more prominent and earlier than normal ('22 was near normal) this year - possibly changing sooner due stress from drought and cooler/dry nights. #nswx #pewx #nbwx

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 11d

Fine where it is if it keeps the storms away from land.

Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 11d

Jet stream steering them that way this year

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 11d

Model forecast for middle of next week showing general position and possible cloud pattern associated with Hurricane Humberto and TD9/Imelda. Atlantic Canada not expected to have to contend with these storms, but will update if that changes.

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Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 12d

Rainfall totals from recent weather system (mm). #nswx #pewx

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Reposted by Chris Fogarty, PhD

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 15d

I also have an updating radar loop from the Azores at bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Tropical Cyclone Radar Loops

Brian McNoldy's collection of tropical cyclone radar loops.

bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu

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