Brian McNoldy
@bmcnoldy.bsky.social
Univ. of Miami hurricane researcher 🌀 living in New Mexico 🏜.
Husband and dog dad. 🏳️🌈
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/
Husband and dog dad. 🏳️🌈
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/
Rocco after a haircut... sweater, blankie, and a fire to stay cozy.
November 22, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Rocco after a haircut... sweater, blankie, and a fire to stay cozy.
Reposted by Brian McNoldy
Just to review, in the last week the President of the United States:
- Refused to condemn the rise of Neo-Nazis in his party
- Tried to block the release of further evidence he sexually abused children
- Encouraged the execution of Congressional Democrats
Those are just factual statements.
- Refused to condemn the rise of Neo-Nazis in his party
- Tried to block the release of further evidence he sexually abused children
- Encouraged the execution of Congressional Democrats
Those are just factual statements.
November 20, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Just to review, in the last week the President of the United States:
- Refused to condemn the rise of Neo-Nazis in his party
- Tried to block the release of further evidence he sexually abused children
- Encouraged the execution of Congressional Democrats
Those are just factual statements.
- Refused to condemn the rise of Neo-Nazis in his party
- Tried to block the release of further evidence he sexually abused children
- Encouraged the execution of Congressional Democrats
Those are just factual statements.
We saw a slow start to the season until Category 5 Hurricane Erin came around in mid-August. Activity wound down and went completely dormant from August 29 through September 16. But, the season's activity ended above-average, with 108% of average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).
Summary of the Unusual 2025 Hurricane Season
Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:52 PM
We saw a slow start to the season until Category 5 Hurricane Erin came around in mid-August. Activity wound down and went completely dormant from August 29 through September 16. But, the season's activity ended above-average, with 108% of average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).
During the core months of hurricane season (Aug-Sep-Oct), fairly persistent anomalous "troughiness" was centered over the southeast U.S., which resulted in anomalous counter-clockwise steering flow around it.
This helps explain why hurricanes generally turned northward well before reaching the U.S.
This helps explain why hurricanes generally turned northward well before reaching the U.S.
November 18, 2025 at 8:36 PM
During the core months of hurricane season (Aug-Sep-Oct), fairly persistent anomalous "troughiness" was centered over the southeast U.S., which resulted in anomalous counter-clockwise steering flow around it.
This helps explain why hurricanes generally turned northward well before reaching the U.S.
This helps explain why hurricanes generally turned northward well before reaching the U.S.
With just two weeks remaining in meteorological Fall (Sep-Oct-Nov), it still looks like this will be the warmest Fall in #Albuquerque 's 133-year-long record. The current warmest had an average temperature of 61.5° (2024), and this year may come in around 62.0°F.
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November 17, 2025 at 6:00 PM
With just two weeks remaining in meteorological Fall (Sep-Oct-Nov), it still looks like this will be the warmest Fall in #Albuquerque 's 133-year-long record. The current warmest had an average temperature of 61.5° (2024), and this year may come in around 62.0°F.
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What made the above-average 2025 #HurricaneSeason unusual?
- Least amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy since 2022
- No U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015
- Latest first named storm formation since 2014
- Three Category 5 hurricanes, second only to the 2005 season
- Least amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy since 2022
- No U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015
- Latest first named storm formation since 2014
- Three Category 5 hurricanes, second only to the 2005 season
Summary of the Unusual 2025 Hurricane Season
Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com
November 17, 2025 at 1:06 PM
What made the above-average 2025 #HurricaneSeason unusual?
- Least amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy since 2022
- No U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015
- Latest first named storm formation since 2014
- Three Category 5 hurricanes, second only to the 2005 season
- Least amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy since 2022
- No U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015
- Latest first named storm formation since 2014
- Three Category 5 hurricanes, second only to the 2005 season
5 years ago today:
Hurricane season was likely over this year before November, but that's not always the case... Iota was the 30th and strongest named storm of the 2020 season. It was an upper-end Category 4 hurricane (operationally it was a Category 5, but downgraded in the post-season reanalysis).
Hurricane season was likely over this year before November, but that's not always the case... Iota was the 30th and strongest named storm of the 2020 season. It was an upper-end Category 4 hurricane (operationally it was a Category 5, but downgraded in the post-season reanalysis).
November 16, 2025 at 1:05 PM
5 years ago today:
Hurricane season was likely over this year before November, but that's not always the case... Iota was the 30th and strongest named storm of the 2020 season. It was an upper-end Category 4 hurricane (operationally it was a Category 5, but downgraded in the post-season reanalysis).
Hurricane season was likely over this year before November, but that's not always the case... Iota was the 30th and strongest named storm of the 2020 season. It was an upper-end Category 4 hurricane (operationally it was a Category 5, but downgraded in the post-season reanalysis).
This has been the warmest first half of November on record in #Albuquerque, by a hefty 1.5°F margin. The average temperature was 56.9°F, compared to the 1991-2020 average of 49.0°F.
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November 16, 2025 at 12:20 AM
This has been the warmest first half of November on record in #Albuquerque, by a hefty 1.5°F margin. The average temperature was 56.9°F, compared to the 1991-2020 average of 49.0°F.
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Three storms reached Category 5 intensity, which is extraordinary.
1) Over the past century, only 3% of Atlantic tropical cyclones reach Category 5 intensity, so that by itself is a high bar.
2) There has been only one other year with 3+ recorded Category 5 hurricanes: 2005.
#HurricaneSeason
1) Over the past century, only 3% of Atlantic tropical cyclones reach Category 5 intensity, so that by itself is a high bar.
2) There has been only one other year with 3+ recorded Category 5 hurricanes: 2005.
#HurricaneSeason
Summary of the Unusual 2025 Hurricane Season
Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com
November 14, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Three storms reached Category 5 intensity, which is extraordinary.
1) Over the past century, only 3% of Atlantic tropical cyclones reach Category 5 intensity, so that by itself is a high bar.
2) There has been only one other year with 3+ recorded Category 5 hurricanes: 2005.
#HurricaneSeason
1) Over the past century, only 3% of Atlantic tropical cyclones reach Category 5 intensity, so that by itself is a high bar.
2) There has been only one other year with 3+ recorded Category 5 hurricanes: 2005.
#HurricaneSeason
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends on November 30, but the outlook is very quiet out there, so it very likely ended on October 31 this year. Overall, it was a slightly above-average season with some strange characteristics.
Summary of the Unusual 2025 Hurricane Season
Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:58 PM
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends on November 30, but the outlook is very quiet out there, so it very likely ended on October 31 this year. Overall, it was a slightly above-average season with some strange characteristics.
#Albuquerque reached a high temperature of 75°F on Wednesday, breaking the previous record of 74° set in 1918.
This is now the warmest temperature observed in the period of November 12 through February 10 (the high reached 75° on Feb 10, 2017).
This is now the warmest temperature observed in the period of November 12 through February 10 (the high reached 75° on Feb 10, 2017).
November 13, 2025 at 12:07 AM
#Albuquerque reached a high temperature of 75°F on Wednesday, breaking the previous record of 74° set in 1918.
This is now the warmest temperature observed in the period of November 12 through February 10 (the high reached 75° on Feb 10, 2017).
This is now the warmest temperature observed in the period of November 12 through February 10 (the high reached 75° on Feb 10, 2017).
#Miami set a new record low temperature for Nov 11: 49°F. That is 20°F below the average low for the date and 4°F below the previous record low.
It also set a new record low dewpoint on Nov 11: 28°F. That is a huge 33°F below the average low for the date and 7°F below the previous record low.
It also set a new record low dewpoint on Nov 11: 28°F. That is a huge 33°F below the average low for the date and 7°F below the previous record low.
November 12, 2025 at 1:48 PM
#Miami set a new record low temperature for Nov 11: 49°F. That is 20°F below the average low for the date and 4°F below the previous record low.
It also set a new record low dewpoint on Nov 11: 28°F. That is a huge 33°F below the average low for the date and 7°F below the previous record low.
It also set a new record low dewpoint on Nov 11: 28°F. That is a huge 33°F below the average low for the date and 7°F below the previous record low.
#Albuquerque still has not hit the freezing mark (32°F) yet this season, and today is the 90th percentile date for first freeze -- meaning that the first freeze has occurred in 90% of years by now.
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November 11, 2025 at 12:36 PM
#Albuquerque still has not hit the freezing mark (32°F) yet this season, and today is the 90th percentile date for first freeze -- meaning that the first freeze has occurred in 90% of years by now.
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Early online release!
"Redrawing Risks: How Professional Users Interpret and Use an Iteratively Redesigned Hurricane Threats and Impacts Graphic"
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
"Redrawing Risks: How Professional Users Interpret and Use an Iteratively Redesigned Hurricane Threats and Impacts Graphic"
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
November 10, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Early online release!
"Redrawing Risks: How Professional Users Interpret and Use an Iteratively Redesigned Hurricane Threats and Impacts Graphic"
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
"Redrawing Risks: How Professional Users Interpret and Use an Iteratively Redesigned Hurricane Threats and Impacts Graphic"
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
With the first nine days of November in the books, and the unseasonably warm days ahead, the first two weeks of November will end up the warmest on record in #Albuquerque, going back to 1892.
The exact value for 2025 will come into focus day by day, but should be very close to 56.0°F. Stay tuned!
The exact value for 2025 will come into focus day by day, but should be very close to 56.0°F. Stay tuned!
November 10, 2025 at 4:38 PM
With the first nine days of November in the books, and the unseasonably warm days ahead, the first two weeks of November will end up the warmest on record in #Albuquerque, going back to 1892.
The exact value for 2025 will come into focus day by day, but should be very close to 56.0°F. Stay tuned!
The exact value for 2025 will come into focus day by day, but should be very close to 56.0°F. Stay tuned!
The first week of November was the warmest on record in #Albuquerque by a big margin.
The average temperature from Nov 1-7 was 59.0°F, cruising well above the previous record of 57.8°F set in 2020. Records go back to 1892.
I also plotted the trend line, and *shocker*, it's been warming!
The average temperature from Nov 1-7 was 59.0°F, cruising well above the previous record of 57.8°F set in 2020. Records go back to 1892.
I also plotted the trend line, and *shocker*, it's been warming!
November 7, 2025 at 10:15 PM
The first week of November was the warmest on record in #Albuquerque by a big margin.
The average temperature from Nov 1-7 was 59.0°F, cruising well above the previous record of 57.8°F set in 2020. Records go back to 1892.
I also plotted the trend line, and *shocker*, it's been warming!
The average temperature from Nov 1-7 was 59.0°F, cruising well above the previous record of 57.8°F set in 2020. Records go back to 1892.
I also plotted the trend line, and *shocker*, it's been warming!
An *unprecedented* warm streak this late in the year in #Albuquerque!
The past FIVE days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), 75° (Wed), and 76°F (Thu). For context, the average high on these days is 62-63°F.
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The past FIVE days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), 75° (Wed), and 76°F (Thu). For context, the average high on these days is 62-63°F.
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November 7, 2025 at 12:07 AM
An *unprecedented* warm streak this late in the year in #Albuquerque!
The past FIVE days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), 75° (Wed), and 76°F (Thu). For context, the average high on these days is 62-63°F.
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The past FIVE days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), 75° (Wed), and 76°F (Thu). For context, the average high on these days is 62-63°F.
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Reposted by Brian McNoldy
Climate change "doesn’t automatically mean all hurricanes will become powerful,” @bmcnoldy.bsky.social said. But it makes it more likely that an average storm will encounter factors that help it intensify.
How climate change made Hurricane Melissa stronger:
How climate change made Hurricane Melissa stronger:
Global Warming Made Hurricane Melissa More Damaging, Researchers Say
www.nytimes.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Climate change "doesn’t automatically mean all hurricanes will become powerful,” @bmcnoldy.bsky.social said. But it makes it more likely that an average storm will encounter factors that help it intensify.
How climate change made Hurricane Melissa stronger:
How climate change made Hurricane Melissa stronger:
The incredible late-season heat in #Albuquerque continues!
The past FOUR days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), and 75°F (Wed).
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The past FOUR days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), and 75°F (Wed).
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November 6, 2025 at 12:12 AM
The incredible late-season heat in #Albuquerque continues!
The past FOUR days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), and 75°F (Wed).
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The past FOUR days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), and 75°F (Wed).
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Reposted by Brian McNoldy
Here is this year's closest full moon setting above our house... taken just one hour before it's technically 100% full (which is at 6:19am MST), but still above the horizon.
This was taken at 5:19am. It'll have to do for a quick phone photo.
#supermoon #newmexico
This was taken at 5:19am. It'll have to do for a quick phone photo.
#supermoon #newmexico
November 5, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Here is this year's closest full moon setting above our house... taken just one hour before it's technically 100% full (which is at 6:19am MST), but still above the horizon.
This was taken at 5:19am. It'll have to do for a quick phone photo.
#supermoon #newmexico
This was taken at 5:19am. It'll have to do for a quick phone photo.
#supermoon #newmexico
My attempt at photos (from my phone) of this year's largest, closest, and brightest full moon.
#supermoon
#supermoon
November 5, 2025 at 12:39 AM
My attempt at photos (from my phone) of this year's largest, closest, and brightest full moon.
#supermoon
#supermoon
A few Fall shots of the Rio Grande and Sandias from my neighborhood in Bernalillo...
November 4, 2025 at 12:21 PM
A few Fall shots of the Rio Grande and Sandias from my neighborhood in Bernalillo...
Reposted by Brian McNoldy
Today's my final routine newsletter of the hurricane season, so I thought I'd dig into the preliminary results of our forecast models. Google's DeepMind scorched the competition, but for America's flagship weather model, it was a season to forget.
This Hurricane Season, Two Forecast Models Stand Out, but for Very Different Reasons
Google’s newest DeepMind hurricane model was the star of the 2025 hurricane season while America’s flagship weather model stumbled to new lows
michaelrlowry.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Today's my final routine newsletter of the hurricane season, so I thought I'd dig into the preliminary results of our forecast models. Google's DeepMind scorched the competition, but for America's flagship weather model, it was a season to forget.