Dalia Dassa Kaye
@dassakaye.bsky.social
1.9K followers 220 following 480 posts
Longtime Middle East/global affairs/diplomacy observer. Current: Senior Fellow, UCLA Burkle Center. Former: Director, RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. More info here: https://www.daliadassakaye.net/. New book out Dec 2!
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dassakaye.bsky.social
Marwan Barghouti not on prisoner release list. This could complicate hostage release/prisoner exchange if Hamas believed he was on the list.
dassakaye.bsky.social
No need--Tony Blair is the new Bremer.
dassakaye.bsky.social
you may be too optimistic. do you really think we'll get to that stage?
dassakaye.bsky.social
One other precautionary note: under Trump's watch the January ceasefire never got past phase 1 and broke down by March, leading to 8 more months of bloodshed and humanitarian crisis. Let's hope this time the ceasefire sticks and we move toward a real end of the war and surge of aid.
djrothkopf.bsky.social
We should all be happy for any progress toward a cessation of hostilities in Gaza and especially for the release of the surviving hostages. That said: editors and writers need to be clear a temporary ceasefire is not a "peace" deal. What we're talking about is phase one of a multiphase plan.
Reposted by Dalia Dassa Kaye
djrothkopf.bsky.social
We should all be happy for any progress toward a cessation of hostilities in Gaza and especially for the release of the surviving hostages. That said: editors and writers need to be clear a temporary ceasefire is not a "peace" deal. What we're talking about is phase one of a multiphase plan.
dassakaye.bsky.social
Also reports of Trump going to region—no doubt he wants a Camp David like photo op. But as welcome as this first step will be, we are still far from an Israeli-Palestinian peace. Very far.
dassakaye.bsky.social
Reports that ceasefire deal will be signed in Egypt tomorrow and living hostages released on Saturday. Let’s hope it happens and there’s follow through on finally ending this catastrophic war.
dassakaye.bsky.social
There is still a lot of magical thinking in Washington. But even if this 'peace deal' doesn't bring real peace (so many reasons it won't), a hostage/prisoner release and hopefully surge of aid can bring hope and save lives. That has to be the priority.
newyorker.com
The war in Gaza may be on the verge of ending. Isaac Chotiner talks to an expert on international peace to try to understand what a deal between Israel and Hamas might look like and why it might finally be close to happening.
Why Israel and Hamas Might Finally Have a Deal
How an Israeli strike on Qatar, Hamas’ shifting calculus, and Donald Trump’s impatience could change the trajectory of the two-year war.
www.newyorker.com
dassakaye.bsky.social
The 72 hour Trump deadline also falls on October 7, the 2nd year mark of this horrific war.
dassakaye.bsky.social
Good summary of state of play on Trump plan. Whether this adds up to actual results on the ground—a genuine end to the war and release of all hostages—remains to be seen.
nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
Arab leaders said something and Trump agreed.

Then Israel said something different and Trump agreed.

Then Hamas said something different from either of those and Trump agreed, touting it as success.
dassakaye.bsky.social
Good summary of state of play on Trump plan. Whether this adds up to actual results on the ground—a genuine end to the war and release of all hostages—remains to be seen.
nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
Arab leaders said something and Trump agreed.

Then Israel said something different and Trump agreed.

Then Hamas said something different from either of those and Trump agreed, touting it as success.
dassakaye.bsky.social
Good 🧵 from @risabrooks12.bsky.social on the threat today's spectacle poses to a nonpartisan professional military in America.
risabrooks12.bsky.social
It's easy to see this speech as just weirdly performative, but there's a lot more—and a lot worse—going on here.

The meeting & speeches are part of a larger project aimed at promoting the military leadership’s partisan alignment with the administration.

How? 1/
atrupar.com
Hegseth: "If the words I'm speaking today are making your heart sink, they you should do the honorable thing and resign."
dassakaye.bsky.social
Weaponizing the US military to target political opposition domestically is not how things work in a democracy. If this isn't a redline, what is?
dassakaye.bsky.social
The Iran nuclear deal has been on life support since Trump’s 2018 withdrawal. Now it’s officially dead. 7 years later, no ‘better’ deal has replaced it. Instead we have the continued prospect of more military conflict.
dassakaye.bsky.social
The second Trump administration would not give Palestinian leader Abbas a visa to speak at UNGA; he'll speak via video. Flashback to 2017 when Trump hosted Abbas at the White House and promised he'd get an Israeli-Palestinian peace 'done.' www.theguardian.com/world/2017/m...
Donald Trump tells Abbas 'we will get it done' on Israel-Palestinian peace deal
US president welcomes Palestinian leader to White House for meeting aimed at relaunching talks and achieving lasting pece
www.theguardian.com
dassakaye.bsky.social
sure. the other through line is a systematic attack on the rule of law and every pillar of democratic society.
dassakaye.bsky.social
Friends who grew up in authoritarian countries with state media, censorship, and crackdowns on dissent understand where America is headed.
nytimes.com
In @nytopinion.nytimes.com

Larry Ellison, a major stakeholder in CBS and Paramount, now has CNN, HBO and a major share of TikTok in his sights, William Cohan writes. If all goes as expected, Ellison is poised “to become one of the most powerful media and entertainment moguls America has ever seen.”
Opinion | Larry Ellison Is Closing In on CNN, HBO and TikTok
Larry Ellison is now suddenly poised to become the most powerful media mogul America has ever seen.
nyti.ms
dassakaye.bsky.social
It is worth reading the French/Saudi New York Declaration. If you support the end of the Gaza war, the release of hostages, and a two state solution there is no reason not to support it, especially when there are no other feasible proposals out there. onu.delegfrance.org/new-york-dec...
New York Declaration
Declaration by the Co-Chairs of the Conference: the French Republic and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Co-Chairs of the Working Groups
onu.delegfrance.org
dassakaye.bsky.social
Trump in UK talking about wanting the Gaza war to end and getting the hostages out but meanwhile this is what's happening on the ground.
reuters.com
Israeli tanks were seen in two areas of Gaza City that are gateways to the city center, residents said, while internet and phone lines were cut off across the Gaza Strip, a sign that ground operations were likely to escalate imminently reut.rs/3Ieh58F
Reposted by Dalia Dassa Kaye
dassakaye.bsky.social
depressing to come across an article during some research discussing Biden officials 'quietly' visiting Saudi Arabia to discuss the so-called 'mega-deal' just 3 days BEFORE the Oct 7 Hamas attack. so many misguided assumptions then (and now)
www.axios.com/2023/10/04/s...
Senior Biden advisers quietly visit Saudi Arabia to discuss mega-deal
Talks for the deal gained momentum after Biden's meeting with Netanyahu last month.
www.axios.com