Dave Bonan
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davebonan.bsky.social
Dave Bonan
@davebonan.bsky.social
I study the physical processes that shape Earth's climate and its past, present, and future changes.

www.davebonan.com
And finally, on Wednesday, check out Emily Newsom's (Caltech) talk on the factors that control how long it takes Earth's climate to reach equilibrium after abrupt forcing, using a unique set of climate model simulations and an idealized energy balance model (EBM).

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December 9, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Also, on Monday, check out Mitch Bushuk's (@the-iceman.bsky.social) work on how horizontal model resolution affects Antarctic sea ice trends across generations of climate models, featuring a neat high-resolution coupled model hierarchy.

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December 9, 2025 at 10:14 PM
* Also, on Wednesday, check out Sydney Vernon's talk on her ongoing work with me, Tapio Schneider (Caltech), and Ronak Patel (Caltech), focused on identifying anthropogenic signals in observed land precipitation changes. Sydney was a Caltech undergraduate and is now at UW.

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December 9, 2025 at 10:14 PM
* On Thursday, I will be giving a different talk on the mechanisms driving observed Southern Ocean cooling and why state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate it, in collaboration with David Battisti (UW), Wei Cheng (UW), Clara Deser (NSF NCAR), Kyle Armour (UW).

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December 9, 2025 at 10:14 PM
On Wednesday, I will be giving a talk on the state dependence and limits of precipitation change under warming, highlighting recent work with Tapio Schneider (Caltech) and Jiang Zhu (NSF NCAR).

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Papers:

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December 9, 2025 at 10:14 PM
This is super cool, Andrew! Nice work! I had been wanting to do something similar ever since reading Rodrigo Caballero's paper about poleward energy transport over a wide range of climates: doi.org/10.1029/2004...
The dynamic range of poleward energy transport in an atmospheric general circulation model
Understanding the reasons for which current climate models fail to reproduce the low equator-to-pole temperature gradient of past warm periods is among the major challenges in climate science. We foc....
doi.org
July 18, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Check out the paper and this press release from @caltech.edu to learn more about the fate of the AMOC over the 21st century: www.caltech.edu/about/news/a...
Atlantic Ocean Current Expected to Undergo Limited Weakening with Climate Change
Caltech researchers, combining observations with an improved understanding of climate model behavior, suggest that a major Atlantic Ocean current will weaken far less under climate change than indicat...
www.caltech.edu
May 29, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Using ocean observations, we show that the real-world AMOC is closer in structure to the shallower models. This suggests that the AMOC will experience only limited weakening, even under high-emissions scenarios.
May 29, 2025 at 10:44 PM
We resolve a long-standing puzzle: climate models with a stronger present-day AMOC project greater weakening. This occurs because their overturning is deeper which allows surface warming and freshening to penetrate further and disrupt circulation.
May 29, 2025 at 10:43 PM