David Henig
@davidheniguk.bsky.social
Trade wonk, Brexit bore, globalisation defender, music lover, cricketer, gardener, supporter of mediocre football teams, who knows where the time goes?
There goes the neighbourhood... (Westminster)
November 17, 2025 at 1:09 PM
There goes the neighbourhood... (Westminster)
Europe is deeply confused about China handling and it shouldn't be - you either engage with a superpower that is the main trade partner to over half the world's countries, or you retreat into protection and decline. So it has to be engagement.
November 17, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Europe is deeply confused about China handling and it shouldn't be - you either engage with a superpower that is the main trade partner to over half the world's countries, or you retreat into protection and decline. So it has to be engagement.
Saturday morning listening. One of the best box sets I've heard, the voice, the songs, the sound quality... the one and only Roy Orbison
November 15, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Saturday morning listening. One of the best box sets I've heard, the voice, the songs, the sound quality... the one and only Roy Orbison
Weekend. And bringing it in with an unexpectedly entertaining homage to the tribute album, leading me to dig out the CD that might be the only one of its type that turned a single unknown song into a ubiquitous anthem.
November 14, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Weekend. And bringing it in with an unexpectedly entertaining homage to the tribute album, leading me to dig out the CD that might be the only one of its type that turned a single unknown song into a ubiquitous anthem.
This paragraph in particular. Immediate implementation with no transition period. Which obviously isn't going to be great for UK farmers. But is the UK government really expecting the EU to lift all SPS checks on day one of an agreement? When it took over six years for Switzerland?
November 13, 2025 at 12:04 PM
This paragraph in particular. Immediate implementation with no transition period. Which obviously isn't going to be great for UK farmers. But is the UK government really expecting the EU to lift all SPS checks on day one of an agreement? When it took over six years for Switzerland?
Why supply chains and globalisation are here to stay. Not least when the cost of living in Europe and North America is such an issue. But they will be constantly under review. And this advantages the largest companies. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...
November 13, 2025 at 11:09 AM
Why supply chains and globalisation are here to stay. Not least when the cost of living in Europe and North America is such an issue. But they will be constantly under review. And this advantages the largest companies. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...
Bigger picture of EU challenges in today's world here from @alanbeattie.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/af7e...
November 13, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Bigger picture of EU challenges in today's world here from @alanbeattie.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/af7e...
A flat economy is not even the new normal, is has been the standard for some years now without ever being accepted as such (hence persistent OBR over-optimism).
November 13, 2025 at 7:23 AM
A flat economy is not even the new normal, is has been the standard for some years now without ever being accepted as such (hence persistent OBR over-optimism).
I did not have insider knowledge. I have just been around Brussels negotiations for a long time...
EU agrees a mandate for UK negotiations as I predicted. With the bonus that the future path becomes clearer - if you pay you can have more. www.politico.eu/article/uk-s...
EU agrees a mandate for UK negotiations as I predicted. With the bonus that the future path becomes clearer - if you pay you can have more. www.politico.eu/article/uk-s...
November 12, 2025 at 6:45 PM
I did not have insider knowledge. I have just been around Brussels negotiations for a long time...
EU agrees a mandate for UK negotiations as I predicted. With the bonus that the future path becomes clearer - if you pay you can have more. www.politico.eu/article/uk-s...
EU agrees a mandate for UK negotiations as I predicted. With the bonus that the future path becomes clearer - if you pay you can have more. www.politico.eu/article/uk-s...
New York Times newsletter. You will find few better indicators of a changing world - one in which governments in Europe and the US are largely lost and defensive in response to the change going on elsewhere.
November 12, 2025 at 12:11 PM
New York Times newsletter. You will find few better indicators of a changing world - one in which governments in Europe and the US are largely lost and defensive in response to the change going on elsewhere.
Sort of message given by every dictator who ran their economies into the ground.
November 12, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Sort of message given by every dictator who ran their economies into the ground.
This is also said about Europe's approach to China and I simply don't believe this is true. I was at conferences with senior US folk in the early 2010s and none thought China would become more democratic or liberal.
We thought we could compete.
We thought we could compete.
November 10, 2025 at 7:18 PM
This is also said about Europe's approach to China and I simply don't believe this is true. I was at conferences with senior US folk in the early 2010s and none thought China would become more democratic or liberal.
We thought we could compete.
We thought we could compete.
I find it extremely difficult to believe that Germany and the Netherlands are in such a minority wanting the RU to uphold an agreement already made, and once the UK isn't being offered the access of Switzerland or Norway so shouldn't make the payments... something odd going on here.
November 10, 2025 at 6:20 PM
I find it extremely difficult to believe that Germany and the Netherlands are in such a minority wanting the RU to uphold an agreement already made, and once the UK isn't being offered the access of Switzerland or Norway so shouldn't make the payments... something odd going on here.
This looks rather meaningful.
November 10, 2025 at 9:40 AM
This looks rather meaningful.
Link to the paper is here... a little more on the results pasted in below.
Expect a Briefings for Brexit rebuttal that actually the cost of Brexit was 12 pence and a bag of chips, to be outweighed by sovereignty benefits of a zillion pounds.
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
Expect a Briefings for Brexit rebuttal that actually the cost of Brexit was 12 pence and a bag of chips, to be outweighed by sovereignty benefits of a zillion pounds.
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
November 10, 2025 at 9:35 AM
Link to the paper is here... a little more on the results pasted in below.
Expect a Briefings for Brexit rebuttal that actually the cost of Brexit was 12 pence and a bag of chips, to be outweighed by sovereignty benefits of a zillion pounds.
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
Expect a Briefings for Brexit rebuttal that actually the cost of Brexit was 12 pence and a bag of chips, to be outweighed by sovereignty benefits of a zillion pounds.
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?
November 10, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?
Idling through some non-league tables and noticed that Redcar Athletic of tier 8 are currently on track to score 160 goals this season... some decent teams in this league including the legendary Blyth Spartans near the foot.
November 9, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Idling through some non-league tables and noticed that Redcar Athletic of tier 8 are currently on track to score 160 goals this season... some decent teams in this league including the legendary Blyth Spartans near the foot.
Almost universal across the west. Voters have never had it so good. But they feel more was promised. And isn't just the cost but the difficulties of life, and the sense of a class that doesn't face these.
Difficult to sort in low-growth times. www.ft.com/content/7913...
Difficult to sort in low-growth times. www.ft.com/content/7913...
November 8, 2025 at 6:46 AM
Almost universal across the west. Voters have never had it so good. But they feel more was promised. And isn't just the cost but the difficulties of life, and the sense of a class that doesn't face these.
Difficult to sort in low-growth times. www.ft.com/content/7913...
Difficult to sort in low-growth times. www.ft.com/content/7913...
Of course, there is also a familiar UK failing here - of letting the EU dominate public narrative because the UK has internalised secrecy and believes the EU when it says please stay quiet.
Negotiating structures have I believe been agreed. This stuff is EU internal politics playing.
Negotiating structures have I believe been agreed. This stuff is EU internal politics playing.
November 7, 2025 at 6:26 AM
Of course, there is also a familiar UK failing here - of letting the EU dominate public narrative because the UK has internalised secrecy and believes the EU when it says please stay quiet.
Negotiating structures have I believe been agreed. This stuff is EU internal politics playing.
Negotiating structures have I believe been agreed. This stuff is EU internal politics playing.
The UK and EU common understanding says there will be an SPS deal (which will mostly benefit the EU but is a UK ask) in return for the UK contributing operational costs. It does not say the UK should contribute to regional funds. And there's a very good reason for that...
November 7, 2025 at 6:19 AM
The UK and EU common understanding says there will be an SPS deal (which will mostly benefit the EU but is a UK ask) in return for the UK contributing operational costs. It does not say the UK should contribute to regional funds. And there's a very good reason for that...
Interesting findings on public views towards training partners, which I also put in context by charting UK exports in real terms, a flat picture behind the change in goods and services share that is roughly what you'd expect of higher trade barriers.
November 3, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Interesting findings on public views towards training partners, which I also put in context by charting UK exports in real terms, a flat picture behind the change in goods and services share that is roughly what you'd expect of higher trade barriers.
A rather wet start to the London Brighton classic car run
November 2, 2025 at 7:58 AM
A rather wet start to the London Brighton classic car run
Healthy antidote to the predominant idea that we can only recover a global order through institutions such as the WTO. As per my various writing, I am rather seeing an emerging balance between countries and companies. h/t @monapaulsen.bsky.social direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
October 30, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Healthy antidote to the predominant idea that we can only recover a global order through institutions such as the WTO. As per my various writing, I am rather seeing an emerging balance between countries and companies. h/t @monapaulsen.bsky.social direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
To be slightly fair to Keir Starmer very few European leaders have any kind of passionate vision of the future of Europe, there's quite a doom loop all round of holding on to a world long gone
October 29, 2025 at 8:15 AM
To be slightly fair to Keir Starmer very few European leaders have any kind of passionate vision of the future of Europe, there's quite a doom loop all round of holding on to a world long gone