David R. Kotok
@davidkotok.bsky.social
Co-Founder & Strategic Advisor at Cumberland Advisors ▫ Economist ▫ Fisherman ▫ Investor ▫ Author ▫ See my new book, "The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks" https://www.thefedandtheflu.com.
Under Unitary Executive Theory, there is no lame duck status that develops in the White House as Trump’s term advances. The president operates at will and litigates later. He practices an industrial policy, including the use of tariffs; he intervenes in markets with a heavy hand; (1/2)
Is 2026 a Lame Duck Year?
Are winds blowing in our face or from our backs? Presidential lame duck status has an economic characteristic. And, in 2026, there’s a twist.
kotokreport.com
December 28, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Under Unitary Executive Theory, there is no lame duck status that develops in the White House as Trump’s term advances. The president operates at will and litigates later. He practices an industrial policy, including the use of tariffs; he intervenes in markets with a heavy hand; (1/2)
The 2026 outlook, I would suggest, is driven by a strong executive wielding power, and the lame duck characterization is really applicable to Speaker Johnson and the House of Representatives. That means a wide range of potential outcomes and limited predictability.
Is 2026 a Lame Duck Year
Are winds blowing in our face or from our backs? Presidential lame duck status has an economic characteristic. And, in 2026, there’s a twist.
dkotok.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 4:58 PM
The 2026 outlook, I would suggest, is driven by a strong executive wielding power, and the lame duck characterization is really applicable to Speaker Johnson and the House of Representatives. That means a wide range of potential outcomes and limited predictability.
Central banks play a decisive role in shaping financial markets. But how does it actually work?
In this short video, we break down what central banks do, how monetary policy works, and why their decisions move markets—in just a couple of minutes.
In this short video, we break down what central banks do, how monetary policy works, and why their decisions move markets—in just a couple of minutes.
How Central Banks Move Markets (In 2 Minutes)
Central banks play a decisive role in shaping financial markets, interest rates, and inflation—but how does it actually work?
In this short video, Kathleen Hays and David R. Kotok break down…
youtu.be
December 27, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Central banks play a decisive role in shaping financial markets. But how does it actually work?
In this short video, we break down what central banks do, how monetary policy works, and why their decisions move markets—in just a couple of minutes.
In this short video, we break down what central banks do, how monetary policy works, and why their decisions move markets—in just a couple of minutes.
Why Gold is Surging in 2025: History, China, and Future Outlook
youtu.be/63pagOecoes #Gold #Economy #TheFed #Inflation #Investing
youtu.be/63pagOecoes #Gold #Economy #TheFed #Inflation #Investing
Why Gold is Surging in 2025: History, China, and Future Outlook
The Eternal Allure of Gold is explored here with references to history, surges, and clues to what's next. The Gold Rush has been going on for thousands of years. We talk about Gold through the ages,…
youtu.be
December 26, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Why Gold is Surging in 2025: History, China, and Future Outlook
youtu.be/63pagOecoes #Gold #Economy #TheFed #Inflation #Investing
youtu.be/63pagOecoes #Gold #Economy #TheFed #Inflation #Investing
How do pandemic risks flow to finance? We explore in our book and chart a course that was missed by most.
"Nothing in the literature or records suggests that Jordá, Singh, and Taylor's depiction of a pandemic-induced decline in the natural rate of interest was understood to have been a factor in...
"Nothing in the literature or records suggests that Jordá, Singh, and Taylor's depiction of a pandemic-induced decline in the natural rate of interest was understood to have been a factor in...
December 23, 2025 at 4:59 PM
How do pandemic risks flow to finance? We explore in our book and chart a course that was missed by most.
"Nothing in the literature or records suggests that Jordá, Singh, and Taylor's depiction of a pandemic-induced decline in the natural rate of interest was understood to have been a factor in...
"Nothing in the literature or records suggests that Jordá, Singh, and Taylor's depiction of a pandemic-induced decline in the natural rate of interest was understood to have been a factor in...
A journey through time at the People's House.
Christmas at the White House is original content based on research by The History Guy.
Happy Holidays to all!
youtu.be/YeI7IW_rzfE?...
Christmas at the White House is original content based on research by The History Guy.
Happy Holidays to all!
youtu.be/YeI7IW_rzfE?...
Christmas at the White House
The History Guy gets a rare invitation and checks out the fireplace.
Special thank you to Jim.
Check out our new shop for fun The History Guy…
youtu.be
December 22, 2025 at 8:20 PM
A journey through time at the People's House.
Christmas at the White House is original content based on research by The History Guy.
Happy Holidays to all!
youtu.be/YeI7IW_rzfE?...
Christmas at the White House is original content based on research by The History Guy.
Happy Holidays to all!
youtu.be/YeI7IW_rzfE?...
How is the Trump administration tailoring the Monroe Doctrine for its own goals?
Please join me to explore this topic: dkotok.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
#Trade #Embargo #Venezuela #MonroeDoctrine #Oil #Economy
Please join me to explore this topic: dkotok.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
#Trade #Embargo #Venezuela #MonroeDoctrine #Oil #Economy
Venezuela, Cuba, Trump Corollary (The New Monroe Doctrine?)
Three recommended reports on the Venezuelan tanker provided perspective that included generally overlooked details worth knowing about, IMO.
dkotok.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 1:45 PM
How is the Trump administration tailoring the Monroe Doctrine for its own goals?
Please join me to explore this topic: dkotok.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
#Trade #Embargo #Venezuela #MonroeDoctrine #Oil #Economy
Please join me to explore this topic: dkotok.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
#Trade #Embargo #Venezuela #MonroeDoctrine #Oil #Economy
Having been in a couple of central bank vaults I've seen gold bullion up close. Its care and keeping is impressive. The gold market is dominated by London where there's a bullion exchange. And several others. I will explain how Shanghai relates to the over $4k an ounce price: kotokreport.com/gold/
Gold!
Recently I gave a talk about the history and the future of gold. Watch the talk or read the transcript.
kotokreport.com
December 22, 2025 at 1:32 AM
Having been in a couple of central bank vaults I've seen gold bullion up close. Its care and keeping is impressive. The gold market is dominated by London where there's a bullion exchange. And several others. I will explain how Shanghai relates to the over $4k an ounce price: kotokreport.com/gold/
I’ve written about gold several times. In November I did a talk here in Sarasota about the history of gold, what it’s doing today, and what we might expect for the future of gold. Here’s a YouTube recording of that presentation. kotokreport.com/gold/ #Gold #Money #PreciousMetals #TheFed
Gold!
Recently I gave a talk about the history and the future of gold. Watch the talk or read the transcript.
kotokreport.com
December 21, 2025 at 3:22 PM
I’ve written about gold several times. In November I did a talk here in Sarasota about the history of gold, what it’s doing today, and what we might expect for the future of gold. Here’s a YouTube recording of that presentation. kotokreport.com/gold/ #Gold #Money #PreciousMetals #TheFed
In investing, can you ignore the risks and impacts of climate change?
www.youtube.com/shorts/UVkeX...
Stay up to date with David by subscribing free: kotokreport.com/insights/
www.youtube.com/shorts/UVkeX...
Stay up to date with David by subscribing free: kotokreport.com/insights/
Climate Change: Ignoring Risk Impacts Insurance & Finance
Why would a top investor say Florida needs ANOTHER hurricane?
David Kotok explains the dangerous complacency after a quiet storm season - while the water keeps rising.
Insurance carriers are…
www.youtube.com
December 20, 2025 at 8:56 PM
In investing, can you ignore the risks and impacts of climate change?
www.youtube.com/shorts/UVkeX...
Stay up to date with David by subscribing free: kotokreport.com/insights/
www.youtube.com/shorts/UVkeX...
Stay up to date with David by subscribing free: kotokreport.com/insights/
Join me today, 1PM - 2PM EST. for an investment conversation addressing the structural forces & tail risks that create generational opportunities & threats plus the potential reshaping of global systems & economic shocks.
Join us here: www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
#Markets #Investing #Economy
Join us here: www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
#Markets #Investing #Economy
December 17, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Join me today, 1PM - 2PM EST. for an investment conversation addressing the structural forces & tail risks that create generational opportunities & threats plus the potential reshaping of global systems & economic shocks.
Join us here: www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
#Markets #Investing #Economy
Join us here: www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
#Markets #Investing #Economy
Today, we offer three thought-provoking pieces on the Trump administration policy regarding Venezuela and Cuba — one a short video analysis of the big picture from one perspective, one a detailed news report, the last an analytical commentary. dkotok.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
Venezuela, Cuba, Trump Corollary (The New Monroe Doctrine?)
Three recommended reports on the Venezuelan tanker provided perspective that included generally overlooked details worth knowing about, IMO.
dkotok.substack.com
December 16, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Today, we offer three thought-provoking pieces on the Trump administration policy regarding Venezuela and Cuba — one a short video analysis of the big picture from one perspective, one a detailed news report, the last an analytical commentary. dkotok.substack.com/p/venezuela-...
I would be delighted if you'd attend our conversation this Wednesday, Dec 17, 2025, 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM EST. www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
Traditional investment commentary often focuses only on quarterly earnings and near-term catalysts. This conversation will be different.
Traditional investment commentary often focuses only on quarterly earnings and near-term catalysts. This conversation will be different.
December 15, 2025 at 3:39 PM
I would be delighted if you'd attend our conversation this Wednesday, Dec 17, 2025, 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM EST. www.linkedin.com/events/74060...
Traditional investment commentary often focuses only on quarterly earnings and near-term catalysts. This conversation will be different.
Traditional investment commentary often focuses only on quarterly earnings and near-term catalysts. This conversation will be different.
Imagine what $60 million could do for the research budget of the University of Florida as it proceeds in developing a cancer cure with mRNA science applied. Readers can decide this for themselves. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
The Coming RFK Jr. Health Recession: Part 2
I discuss RFK Jr.-aligned state health policy and its ramifications in Florida, the state where I live.
dkotok.substack.com
December 14, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Imagine what $60 million could do for the research budget of the University of Florida as it proceeds in developing a cancer cure with mRNA science applied. Readers can decide this for themselves. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
While Florida politicians are trying to make mRNA vaccines illegal, Florida-based university physicians are developing mRNA vaccines to battle cancers, including deadly ones like glioblastoma.
dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
The Coming RFK Jr. Health Recession: Part 2
I discuss RFK Jr.-aligned state health policy and its ramifications in Florida, the state where I live.
dkotok.substack.com
December 14, 2025 at 3:51 PM
While Florida politicians are trying to make mRNA vaccines illegal, Florida-based university physicians are developing mRNA vaccines to battle cancers, including deadly ones like glioblastoma.
dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
Enjoy the Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, December 12, 2025 Week in Review update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer and John R. Mousseau.
youtu.be/BTvbLu8EbOk?... #Markets
youtu.be/BTvbLu8EbOk?... #Markets
"AI: Searching For Beneficiaries" - Week in Review
Dear Clients & Friends,
Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, December 12, 2025 Week in Review, our end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer,…
youtu.be
December 13, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Enjoy the Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, December 12, 2025 Week in Review update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer and John R. Mousseau.
youtu.be/BTvbLu8EbOk?... #Markets
youtu.be/BTvbLu8EbOk?... #Markets
Credit Default Swaps exist for a reason and are often the canary in the coal mine. Oracle is an example.
December 11, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Credit Default Swaps exist for a reason and are often the canary in the coal mine. Oracle is an example.
Trust in the United States and its central bank is key. If trust is shaken, recovering it takes a long time. Global asset allocations are impacted. Is the dollar imperiled? I offer my take on that question in a full interview with Kathleen Hays: kotokreport.com/my-central-b...
My Central Bank Central Interview: Insights Ahead of Expected Rate Cut
With Kathleen Hays on Central Bank Central yesterday, I discussed the expected rate cut, a divided Fed’s choices, inflation’s likely trending higher, policy shocks, Trump-o-nomics, the labor force,…
kotokreport.com
December 11, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Trust in the United States and its central bank is key. If trust is shaken, recovering it takes a long time. Global asset allocations are impacted. Is the dollar imperiled? I offer my take on that question in a full interview with Kathleen Hays: kotokreport.com/my-central-b...
In a world of conflicting forces and potential and yet-to-be-realized policy shocks, how do we invest? What investments makes sense if I don’t want to get up every morning worried about where the VIX roller coaster will take my investments today? kotokreport.com/my-central-b...
My Central Bank Central Interview: Insights Ahead of Expected Rate Cut
With Kathleen Hays on Central Bank Central yesterday, I discussed the expected rate cut, a divided Fed’s choices, inflation’s likely trending higher, policy shocks, Trump-o-nomics, the labor force,…
kotokreport.com
December 10, 2025 at 7:55 PM
In a world of conflicting forces and potential and yet-to-be-realized policy shocks, how do we invest? What investments makes sense if I don’t want to get up every morning worried about where the VIX roller coaster will take my investments today? kotokreport.com/my-central-b...
When I served as chair of the Casino Authority in Atlantic City, I negotiated with real estate developer Donald Trump for two hours regarding a payment structure concerning a casino — a little building called the Taj Mahal. How did that turn out? kotokreport.com/my-central-b...
My Central Bank Central Interview: Insights Ahead of Expected Rate Cut
With Kathleen Hays on Central Bank Central yesterday, I discussed the expected rate cut, a divided Fed’s choices, inflation’s likely trending higher, policy shocks, Trump-o-nomics, the labor force,…
kotokreport.com
December 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
When I served as chair of the Casino Authority in Atlantic City, I negotiated with real estate developer Donald Trump for two hours regarding a payment structure concerning a casino — a little building called the Taj Mahal. How did that turn out? kotokreport.com/my-central-b...
If you’re worried that the dollar may decline as overseas investors lose confidence in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, then hear why David R. Kotok sees the growing use of stablecoins as fuel for demand of dollars and buyers for Treasury bills.
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/kotok-sees... #TheFed
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/kotok-sees... #TheFed
Kotok Sees Fed Cutting Rates Amidst Labor Market Shocks at Cost of Even Higher Inflation
Co-founder, former Chair of Cumberland Advisors, Author of "The Kotok Report" on Substack: Better-grade, tax-free municipal bonds "no brainer" for investors now
kathleenhays.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 10:39 PM
If you’re worried that the dollar may decline as overseas investors lose confidence in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, then hear why David R. Kotok sees the growing use of stablecoins as fuel for demand of dollars and buyers for Treasury bills.
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/kotok-sees... #TheFed
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/kotok-sees... #TheFed
My Central Bank Central Interview: Insights Ahead of Expected Rate Cut
dkotok.substack.com/p/my-central...
Kathleen Hays and I discussed the expected rate cut, a divided Fed’s choices & its purpose, inflation’s trending higher, policy shocks, Trump-o-nomics, labor force, bond market, and the USD.
dkotok.substack.com/p/my-central...
Kathleen Hays and I discussed the expected rate cut, a divided Fed’s choices & its purpose, inflation’s trending higher, policy shocks, Trump-o-nomics, labor force, bond market, and the USD.
My Central Bank Central Interview: Insights Ahead of Expected Rate Cut
Kathleen Hays and I discussed the expected rate cut, a divided Fed’s choices & its purpose, inflation’s trending higher, policy shocks, Trump-o-nomics, the labor force, the bond market, and the USD.
dkotok.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 6:44 PM
My Central Bank Central Interview: Insights Ahead of Expected Rate Cut
dkotok.substack.com/p/my-central...
Kathleen Hays and I discussed the expected rate cut, a divided Fed’s choices & its purpose, inflation’s trending higher, policy shocks, Trump-o-nomics, labor force, bond market, and the USD.
dkotok.substack.com/p/my-central...
Kathleen Hays and I discussed the expected rate cut, a divided Fed’s choices & its purpose, inflation’s trending higher, policy shocks, Trump-o-nomics, labor force, bond market, and the USD.
Small Business by the Numbers is the NFIB Research Center podcast where Holly Wade and Peter Hansen discuss everything related to the small business economy.
Episode #2 just dropped: "Small Business Optimism Increased in November Data"
open.spotify.com/episode/1wz0...
Episode #2 just dropped: "Small Business Optimism Increased in November Data"
open.spotify.com/episode/1wz0...
Ep. 2: Small Business Optimism Increased in November Data
Small Business By The Numbers · Episode
open.spotify.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Small Business by the Numbers is the NFIB Research Center podcast where Holly Wade and Peter Hansen discuss everything related to the small business economy.
Episode #2 just dropped: "Small Business Optimism Increased in November Data"
open.spotify.com/episode/1wz0...
Episode #2 just dropped: "Small Business Optimism Increased in November Data"
open.spotify.com/episode/1wz0...
Childhood vaccination recommendations and policy are in flux and under a siege driven by disinformation. Infection can damage the immune system for a time such that children are more vulnerable to various other infections, not less. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
The Coming RFK Jr Health Recession: Part 1
In Part 1 of this series, we consider the public health and economic implications of vaccine policy and falling vaccination rates.
dkotok.substack.com
December 8, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Childhood vaccination recommendations and policy are in flux and under a siege driven by disinformation. Infection can damage the immune system for a time such that children are more vulnerable to various other infections, not less. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
Senator Cassidy points out that we were able to reduce hepatitis B cases in newborns from 20,000 to 20. Why would any sane person want to reverse that public health success?
dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
The Coming RFK Jr Health Recession: Part 1
In Part 1 of this series, we consider the public health and economic implications of vaccine policy and falling vaccination rates.
dkotok.substack.com
December 7, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Senator Cassidy points out that we were able to reduce hepatitis B cases in newborns from 20,000 to 20. Why would any sane person want to reverse that public health success?
dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...
dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming...