Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 17h

This is to reduce the variability of curtailment, to make it more useful for a potential new flexible demand such as hydrogen production.

1 1 2

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 17h

Sorry, I guess you are asking about the night of Oct 4?
The model has 16 hours of perfect foresight. So on that night it knew that curtailment would be higher during the next day, so it delays charging till then.
(Cont)

1 1 2

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 17h

Also. During the last week when it was windy at night the storage was already at 100%, hence wind generation would have to be curtailed.

1

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 17h

Charging can occur from any supply below the dotted line.
It just looks like solar because of the order that I have plotted each tech.
But given that charging mostly happens during peak solar hours, I recommend that storage is located close to solar generation.

1

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 1d

The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($107/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end)
reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-p...

reneweconomy.com.au

1 1

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 1d

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from
OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

1

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 1d

Here is the simulation from weeks 212 to 215. It was 100% renewable
(3/5)

1 2 2

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 1d

Last week had:
- below average demand (98% of long-term average)
- extreme above average wind (135%)
- above average solar (113%) (2/5)

1

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 1d

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 215 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

1 5 32

Reposted by Dave Osmond

Simon Rosenberg @simonrosenberg.bsky.social · 3d

1/2 "everyone from News Corp to the Atlas Network, to Advance, to CPAC, to Gina Rinehart are busting a foofer valve—and spending a great deal of money—making the case for the takeover"

It’s the process, says @timdunlop.bsky.social, not Andrew Hastie per se.
tdunlop.substack.com/p/i-suppose-...

I suppose we have to think about Andrew Hastie now, sigh

Okay, but let's be clear on what the real problem is

tdunlop.substack.com

9 30 65

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 6d

Each FY Evoenergy estimates the cost of the scheme, which gets added to consumer bills. The following FY they have to correct any errors in the estimate, which in turn also gets passed on to consumers.

1

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 6d

The wind farm receives money from selling electricity on the wholesale spot market. If it sells it for more than the CfD price, then it has to return the extra money to ACT consumers.
Evo Energy, the distributor in the ACT manages the payments.
(cont)

1 1

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 6d

For more information about the ACT 100% renewable scheme, see this article: reneweconomy.com.au/cost-of-acts...

reneweconomy.com.au

1 5

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 6d

Since the beginning of the scheme the average cost has been $24/MWh.
In the last quarter, 3 wind farms had a negative cost, meaning that they returned money to ACT consumers. They are Sapphire, Berrybank and Goyder.
Goyder Wind Farm returned $50/MWh to ACT consumers last quarter!

2 1 7

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 6d

The cost of the ACT 100% renewable target dropped to just $3/MWh in the June quarter of 2025.
The cost of the scheme is negatively correlated to the wholesale electricity price, providing ACT consumers a valuable shield against volatile electricty prices.
/1

1 7 23

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 6d

Electricity Emission Intensity steadily reducing on Australia's NEM thanks to the growth of wind and solar displacing fossil generation.
Sth Australia leading the way in reductions, down 29% over the last 5-years, down 66% over the last 10-years.

1 9

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 7d

1

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 7d

350 GWh of that comes from snowy2.0
It provides a little over 1% of demand.
The ISP also has twice current demand in 2050, which explains most of the remainder.

1

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 8d

The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($107/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end)
reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-p...

reneweconomy.com.au

2

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 8d

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from
OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

1 2

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 8d

Here is the simulation from weeks 211 to 214. It was 100.0% renewable.
(3/5)

1 1

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 8d

Last week had:
- below average demand (97% of long-term average)
- well above average wind (122%)
- above average solar (108%) (2/5)

1 1

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 8d

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 214 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

2 9 16

Reposted by Dave Osmond

Chris Bowen @chrisbowenmp.bsky.social · 9d

It's important to call this stuff out.

17 35 86

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 13d

Fortestcue has announced supply deals with battery giant BYD, solar module supplier Longi, and wind and smart energy solutions company Envision to progress its ambition to reach realy zero by 2030 at its massive Pilbara operations.
reneweconomy.com.au/forrest-land...

reneweconomy.com.au

3