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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

Both graphs are restricted non-white people

David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

Hard to know exactly - some combination of TikTok and Covid changing people’s news consumption to be way more online (discords, WhatsApp groups, etc).

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

I think it’s probably related to the decline among immigrants we’re seeing everywhere too - there’s been a really fundamental change in the information ecosystem of people who don’t follow politics closely bsky.app/profile/davi...

David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jul 12

Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US.

www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

This Norway paper is pretty good for showing whats going on - when I looked through old Canada polling I saw a similar story too.

The real outlier is Germany, where its young women moving left rather than young men moving right.

bsky.app/profile/rube...

Ruben Mathisen @rubenmathisen.bsky.social · Jan 7

The pattern is the same whether we measure polarization through voting or left-right self-placement. Boys have shifted to the right and girls to the left.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

I’m using YouGov’s 35k sample post election survey from this yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

How Britain voted in the 2024 general election | YouGov

Using a sample of over 35,000 voters, YouGov looks at how voters voted at the 2024 election across factors like age, gender, class, education, income, work status, housing tenure and their vote at pas...

yougov.co.uk

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

If you add all the left and right wing parties together the age trend is pretty clear as day

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

If you look at the California high school mock election data (take with the biggest grain of salt you can imagine), you see that the cohort of kids who would have millennial parents seem to be way more Democratic

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

I don’t think this is the main story, but I think some of it is just that our parents were boomers and their parents were gen x.

People under 25 are 7% less likely to say their parents were Democrats than 30 year olds.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

I think the Gelman model is empirically right but doesn't explain as large a fraction of cohort effects as people think.

Boomers were left wing in every country, Gen X was right wing in every country, millennials were left wing in every country, and now Zoomers are trending right everywhere too.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

In general the two biggest predictors of partisanship right now are socioeconomic status and political engagement.

Those two things are also the biggest predictors of answering a political survey. It's a huge issue.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

This is a good thread that someone on my team did that makes the case with public data bsky.app/profile/davi...

David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · May 16

1) It's improper to analyze party registration data without taking into account registration date.

Analyzing voter file data both cross-sectionally and within-person, it's clear that non-voters have become much more Republican in recent years relative to voters

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23d

The "Harris did better than polls suggested among old voters and worse with young voters" comes through pretty clearly if you look at precinct data.

The basic issue is that the partisan gap between highly engaged and highly disengaged young voters went up *a lot* from 2020 to 2024

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Aug 25

It’s the voter demographic section here from the post election mega YouGov poll weighted to the election results. This is comparing Labour+LibDem+Green+SNP vs Tory + Brexit. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Un...

2024 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Aug 25

Shows up in polling data too bsky.app/profile/davi...

David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jul 12

I did an all left vs all right comparison and saw the same thing in the UK - I think the same is true in Canada from eyeballing but haven't checked too closely

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Reposted by David Shor

David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · Aug 24

Video of this year's Harvard Hutchins Center forum: What went wrong? What's next? Thoughtful and provocative conversation. Jonathan Capehart, Astead Herndon, Sherrilyn Ifill, David Shor, Laurence Tribe, Charlene Hunter-Gault www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld4k...

WATCH LIVE: The 2025 Hutchins Forum

YouTube video by PBS NewsHour

www.youtube.com

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Aug 21

Coming back to this: x.com/zacharydonni...

Zachary Donnini on X: "At the heart of the Democratic collapse: young White men are registering as Republicans in unprecedented numbers. Gen Z is on track to be the most pro-GOP generation since the Great Depression. https://t.co/9FTcrafW1V" / X

At the heart of the Democratic collapse: young White men are registering as Republicans in unprecedented numbers. Gen Z is on track to be the most pro-GOP generation since the Great Depression. https://t.co/9FTcrafW1V

x.com

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jul 16

Shows up in individual level data too!

bsky.app/profile/davi...

David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jul 12

I did an all left vs all right comparison and saw the same thing in the UK - I think the same is true in Canada from eyeballing but haven't checked too closely

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jul 16

My tweet did not talk about polls at all.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jul 12

I did an all left vs all right comparison and saw the same thing in the UK - I think the same is true in Canada from eyeballing but haven't checked too closely

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jul 12

Political science as a discipline has a lot to answer for: It has been clear this has been happening for the last decade but many prominent academics ignored it because of a combo of shoddy empirical work and it not fitting neatly into then trendy racial-conflict centric theories of politics

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jul 12

Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US.

www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jun 26

One fun graph for pride: the single strongest demographic predictor I’ve found so far for predicting Cuomo vote share is what fraction of registered voters in the precinct identify as heterosexual

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jun 26

The mayor race on Tuesday saw massive turnout differentials - turnout in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social’sbstrongest precincts was up ~30% while turnout in Cuomo’s best districts were ~ flat.

These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jun 26

This was the point of this tweet, right.

David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · Jun 26

Traditionally there's been a quant/qual split on ad length in Democratic politics, with [usually more moderate] quants pushing for shorter 15 second ads and [usually more progressive] qual folks pushing for 60 second ads.

Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!

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