30/31 still could technically count, right?

Also, to add to the random morning reflections here, I wonder how long it takes for someone to suggest (wrongly) that Hinkley C's £89.50/MWh is cheaper than the £91/MWh for offshore wind, forgetting that the former is 2012 prices!

I note that those offshore wind farms with the most expensive offshore seabed licenses didn't make it through - those licenses now look far too expensive...

PDF with details here assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/696686...

Also, for nerds, the number for comparison to previous rounds is £65/MWh as that's in 2012 £.

It's a lot more than the (now unreasonably cheap) £38/MWh from AR4, but closer to the £59/MWh in AR6 (which also bought Hornsea 4 that was subsequently cancelled for being unprofitable).

While declining aerosols is responsible for part of this observed change, it may also be driven by internal climate variability or a feedback to climate warming. The latter is worrying, as it would imply higher climate sensitivity than currently expected.

*for fossil generation only, my mistake - it's a worst case scenario. It's designed to get you to measure and report on actual emissions as determined by a PPA or whatever, but I suspect in practice a lot of electricity is counted as the default because of the paperwork. Roll on ETS linkage!

Trailing five year average carbon intensity, ending 2 years before the reporting year. So I think for the UK the calculation is based on 2017-2021 data.

2017 was a different era: 7% coal, maybe 42% gas...

Yes - SSP2/3. Feels to me like climate wonks are not thinking through how to do the politics of climate mitigation/resilience in an SSP3 world - because it's not the world we want. But if we have to live there, better to work out how do do so well.

'Skipping that hamburger saved paradise' is a harder story, unfortunately...

OBR reckons pay per mile for EVs "is likely to reduce demand for electric cars as it increases their lifetime cost". Expecting 440k fewer sales through to 2030 compared to previous forecast, offset by a 130k increase in sales from more funding for the government's grant scheme'.

Assuming your gas boiler is 90% efficient, your heat pump needs to have a SCOP of 3.6 to break even.

This is certainly achievable - my heat pump is comfortably above this. But I had a really good installer.

This will reduce the price of electricity, good for bills and will make the transition easier. But because of other levies (nuclear, correcting two decades of underinvestment in the grid), electricity will still be around 4x the cost of gas.