Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
2.4K followers 53 following 390 posts
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · Jan 22
How should a husband and wife divide credit when she says, "Remind me to go to the drugstore," and then he does it? How to divide credit if she remembers? How to divide the blame if neither remembers? ... with basketball sprinkled in.

open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
Piece of Harmony
Aligning team and player incentives in credit and blame
open.substack.com
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 7d
Yeah, Pritchard's distribution is a bit strange, leading to uncertainty in the prediction. The top green line reflects his average production, but the orange being below that suggests he got lucky.
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 7d
Can the Celtics make up for the loss of Tatum, Porzingis, etc.? On the offensive side, "skill curves" from Basketball on Paper look at whether Brown, Pritchard, others can ramp up their offense.

Brown can ramp up a little. White can't. Pritchard can, but the luck he's had likely runs out.
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 8d
In playoff wins this year and last, Kelsey Mitchell has averaged +5.9 total net points. In losses, just -3.0.

For A'ja Wilson, it's been +5.1 in Ws and -0.7 in Ls.

Both are important in tonight's series finale, but Mitchell appears to be a little more so.
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 12d
NFL quarterbacks with the biggest difference in QBR between facing man coverage and zone.
- Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff both in here!
- Tua's struggles
- Kyler Murray last night vs zone: 16.3
Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 12d
I have real concern that they won't be at All-Star level this year.
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 12d
So, no, I don't think LeBron and Steph are top ten NBA players anymore.

Historically, they are clearly top ten and that's what makes it so hard to see them fall out of it for the here and now. 6/6
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 12d
They'll claim they feel great going into camp because everyone feels good then.

But in late January after they've lost a tough one to a so-so team and they think about how easy it used to be to make the playoffs, that mental fatigue will wear on them. 5/6
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 12d
They’re feeling older.

Last year, LeBron often tried to get a head start to the offensive end, leaving his man a free look or a teammate in the lurch.

Steph tried to be hyper-efficient with his movement on defense because he ran so much on offense. 4/6
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 12d
But there are also offensive declines.

LeBron hasn’t gotten to the line at the same rate as he used to.

Steph’s shooting is still amazing, but less amazing than it used to be. Both had near-career lows in offensive usage. 3/6
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 12d
Some of it is their defense. Both players allowed the highest shooting percentages to their matchups in the last six years, per GeniusIQ.

Both had their worst defensive years last year in Net Pts per 48 min.

espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts1...
NBA Net Points Rate - ESPN Analytics
Models and data visualization from ESPN Analytics. NBA & NFL Draft, schedule analysis, receiver scores and more.
espnanalytics.com
Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 12d
OK. I have a problem with these rankings.

And my problem is with LeBron and Steph in the top 10. As much as I hate to see it – both on the court and in this graph - they are declining.

They are still “good,” but not top ten. 1/6
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 13d
Thanks.
Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 13d
The top two players in the WNBA playoffs thus far are Kelsey Mitchell and A'ja Wilson, adding +23.0 and +22.6 total net pts to their teams' scoring margins, respectively.

Even after Mitchell wasn't good in the last game and Wilson was great.

They play tonight.
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 14d
From down 20, PHX won by 6. How did they do it?

AT was better, Sabally was better, Copper, Westbeld.

For MIN, their star started great, then struggled. But most of their starters did that.

A change that big is usually more than one player.

espnanalytics.com/wnba-box?id=...
Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 15d
As I watched last night's game, I looked the QBR values for Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff back to their college days. Jackson was really good right out of the box, whereas Goff got gradually better. They've had a similar pattern in the NFL.

www.espn.com/nfl/qbr
Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 16d
A'ja Wilson had her worst game of the season, coincidentally on the day she received her MVP trophy. She added -7.1 net points on 6/22 shooting in a bad loss at home yesterday. But she has had worse games in her career and she has obviously bounced back quickly.

espnanalytics.com/wnba-box?id=...
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Reposted by Dean Oliver
brianmccormick.bsky.social
Brian McCormick @brianmccormick.bsky.social · 18d
The Four Factors and practice:
brianmccormick.substack.com/p/skill-deve...
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 18d
Stewie had her competitive juices flowing last night, overcoming a sprained MCL but not overcoming rough nights from teammates.

For PHX, AT had a triple-double (yawn) and got great help from Satou Sabally. Fun to see their joy in the postgame interview.

espnanalytics.com/wnba-box?id=...
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 19d
@danorlovsky7 said that Justin Herbert is now elite.

Maybe.

Since week 16 of last year, all of his regular season QBR splits have been above average. 6 of 12 were below average last year prior to week 16.

He had a bad playoff game in between.

Two games isn't a trend, but is 6 games with 1 bad?
Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 19d
In last night's one-point series-clinching win, A'ja Wilson produced +8.4 net points, which means that her Aces teammates were worth -7.4. This kind of game where a player carries the team this much in a one-point win - it happens about once a year.

espnanalytics.com/wnba-box?id=...
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 20d
When someone like Breanna Stewart has a lousy game while playing injured, it makes you want to study the impact of injuries on on-court performance, not just playing time.

She was worth -5.0 net pts in 20 minutes last night, the 2nd worst game we have for her.
espnanalytics.com/wnba-box?id=...
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 20d
Almost all of the Valkyries players played better this year under Coach of the Year Natalie Nakase (and her staff) than they did last year - see the last column below. Only Tiffany Hayes was worse, but she was still good.
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 20d
Minnesota came back from down 14 to start Q4 last night to win by 1. In that Q4, Collier was worth +4.0 Net Pts, Carrington +3.3, and McBride +3.3 for the Lynx.

After shooting an effective 43% through three quarters, MIN nearly doubled it to 83% in Q4.

espnanalytics.com/wnba-box?id=...
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 21d
One thing to note about the WNBA playoffs is that the percentage of shots taken that are off a potential assist goes down (true in NBA, too). Good players have to create for themselves more.

Last night's physical ATL-IND game had more shots without a potential assist than with.
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 21d
"Per GeniusIQ tracking, Wilson shot 1-of-3 on 29 half-court matchups when defended by Malonga, as compared to 5-of-7 against Seattle starter Ezi Magbegor."
kpelton.bsky.social
Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 21d
My news story on the Storm rallying from down 14 to snap the Aces' 17-game winning streak and force a deciding Game 3 in their first-round series, including tracking data on 19-year-old Dominique Malonga defending three-time MVP A'ja Wilson: www.espn.com/wnba/story/_...
Storm halt Aces' 17-game win streak, force Game 3
The Storm handed the Aces their first loss since Aug. 2, rallying from a 14-point deficit in the second half Tuesday night to win Game 2 of their first-round series 86-83 and force a deciding Game 3 o...
www.espn.com
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