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It's a non binding motion, so why does this matter?

It shows the situation Labour finds itself in after that by election, and is something that could happen every Wednesday. In theory it could happen at a real budget vote - Drakeford needs a deal to stop that from happening

The Conservatives tabled a motion accusing the UK Labour government of letting Wales down. It was backed by Plaid and the 3 other non Labour MSs able to vote at the moment

That's Siambr Hywel, btw. It's the temporary chamber in the old Ty Hywel office block being used until next May, when the main debating hall should be ready for 96 MSs

Yeah I had a couple of "I really don't knows". Quite cautious about it all.

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And... Nathan Gill. The bribery case obviously impacted Reform's media campaign, with the candidate and Farage both addressing it directly at various points, Gill having pled guilty just as the campaign was starting.

Couple of other things

The 50% turnout in the context of Senedd elections is obviously very good for a by-election and better than the less than half that usually shows up. Can May's election now break through the 50% barrier?

Welsh elections have frequently been a question of explaining how interesting is this renewed Labour victory. Now we are asking how small the Labour group could end up being. It's a terrible result for them that tops off a difficult couple of years

Which is... obviously historically something else in its own terms. The fact that this was a two horse race, between a party that had never won the seat and one that barely existed a few years before, is totally bewildering.

Reform's Llyr Powell tried to be positive as he left the count, saying they will form a government next May. If that result was replicated somehow nationally they would be coming back with the 2nd largest group. Things don't work like that but they are still in contention to win.

In the end Reform in a way provided a path to victory for Plaid - with PC encouraging others in the left and centre to pile behind them to stop Farage's lot. It worked, and suggests a strategy next May - harder when there's an election system that's meant to give you choice

We kept hearing it was close from everyone. Reform stuck to that line all night even while Plaid members were struggling to suppress their glee. In the end it was a 3,000+ gap. The reality is that the party went into Caerphilly not having the same background in the area Plaid had

Reform's juggernaut presence made that uncertain. Plaid people you would talk to would say things felt 50/50 during the campaign - unless that was very disciplined expectation management they seemed genuinely nervous they wouldn't be able to overcome Reform's operation.

He's been replaced with Lord Davies, the former Gower MP. Gentry's nomination for re-election was declared invalid because not one Tory area backed him. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...