Dean Wingrin
@deanwingrin.bsky.social
Aviation and defense journalist, author, photographer, defenceWeb correspondent and general raconteur.
The law may be strong on paper, but real-world enforcement may be an issue.
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November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
The law may be strong on paper, but real-world enforcement may be an issue.
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Prosecutors have to prove not just the movement of persons, but also means (eg, coercion) & purpose (exploitation). That raises the bar for investigation & proof.
Hinderances include under-resourcing, lack of training, & poor coordination between prosecutors & investigators.
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Hinderances include under-resourcing, lack of training, & poor coordination between prosecutors & investigators.
/12
November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Prosecutors have to prove not just the movement of persons, but also means (eg, coercion) & purpose (exploitation). That raises the bar for investigation & proof.
Hinderances include under-resourcing, lack of training, & poor coordination between prosecutors & investigators.
/12
Hinderances include under-resourcing, lack of training, & poor coordination between prosecutors & investigators.
/12
Getting a conviction will be difficult. It requires experienced investigators and specialist presecutorial skills in the NPA, and obtaining evidence and proving knowledge or intent will be difficult.
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November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Getting a conviction will be difficult. It requires experienced investigators and specialist presecutorial skills in the NPA, and obtaining evidence and proving knowledge or intent will be difficult.
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Whilst there have been some prosecution successes, the number of convictions remains fairly low relative to the scale of trafficking, and as with RFMAA, there are significant challenges.
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November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Whilst there have been some prosecution successes, the number of convictions remains fairly low relative to the scale of trafficking, and as with RFMAA, there are significant challenges.
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This Act defines trafficking broadly: delivering, recruiting, transporting, selling, leasing, or receiving a person, within or across borders, by means such as coercion, fraud, abuse of vulnerability, abduction, abuse of power, or payment, for the purpose of exploitation.
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November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
This Act defines trafficking broadly: delivering, recruiting, transporting, selling, leasing, or receiving a person, within or across borders, by means such as coercion, fraud, abuse of vulnerability, abduction, abuse of power, or payment, for the purpose of exploitation.
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Other charges could be laid against the organisers in terms of the Prevention and Combating of Trafficking in Persons Act (PACOTIP).
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November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Other charges could be laid against the organisers in terms of the Prevention and Combating of Trafficking in Persons Act (PACOTIP).
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Whilst the stricter Prohibition of Mercenary Activities and Regulation of Certain Activities in Country of Armed Conflict Act (2006) was passed, it has not yet been signed into law.
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November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Whilst the stricter Prohibition of Mercenary Activities and Regulation of Certain Activities in Country of Armed Conflict Act (2006) was passed, it has not yet been signed into law.
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There may, however, be a stronger case against MK MP Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla and other organisers of the Russian visit if knowledge of the intent for the men to sign military contracts can be proved.
I'm sure there will be a lot of finger pointing going on!
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I'm sure there will be a lot of finger pointing going on!
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November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
There may, however, be a stronger case against MK MP Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla and other organisers of the Russian visit if knowledge of the intent for the men to sign military contracts can be proved.
I'm sure there will be a lot of finger pointing going on!
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I'm sure there will be a lot of finger pointing going on!
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The MK men who have found themselves on the Ukrainian frontlines, having allegedly gone to Russia for VIP protection training, may not have had knowledge or intent to actually fight and thus a conviction is doubtful.
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November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
The MK men who have found themselves on the Ukrainian frontlines, having allegedly gone to Russia for VIP protection training, may not have had knowledge or intent to actually fight and thus a conviction is doubtful.
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However, convictions under the Act is tricky, few prosecutions have succeeded, and many ended in plea bargains.
Gathering evidence of unauthorised military assistance abroad is hard, & proving “knowledge” (that someone knowingly provided prohibited assistance) is challenging.
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Gathering evidence of unauthorised military assistance abroad is hard, & proving “knowledge” (that someone knowingly provided prohibited assistance) is challenging.
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November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
However, convictions under the Act is tricky, few prosecutions have succeeded, and many ended in plea bargains.
Gathering evidence of unauthorised military assistance abroad is hard, & proving “knowledge” (that someone knowingly provided prohibited assistance) is challenging.
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Gathering evidence of unauthorised military assistance abroad is hard, & proving “knowledge” (that someone knowingly provided prohibited assistance) is challenging.
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Foreign military assistance is broadly defined, including advice, training, recruitment, logistic/intelligence support, personnel, medical services, procurement of equipment, etc. SA courts have jurisdiction over prohibited assistance for acts occurred outside South Africa.
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November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Foreign military assistance is broadly defined, including advice, training, recruitment, logistic/intelligence support, personnel, medical services, procurement of equipment, etc. SA courts have jurisdiction over prohibited assistance for acts occurred outside South Africa.
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The two relevant acts are the Regulation of Foreign Military Assistance Act, 1998 (RFMAA) and the Prevention and Combating of Trafficking in Persons Act, 2013 (PACOTIP).
RFMAA regulates “rendering of foreign military assistance” by SA citizens, residents, and juristic persons
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RFMAA regulates “rendering of foreign military assistance” by SA citizens, residents, and juristic persons
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November 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
The two relevant acts are the Regulation of Foreign Military Assistance Act, 1998 (RFMAA) and the Prevention and Combating of Trafficking in Persons Act, 2013 (PACOTIP).
RFMAA regulates “rendering of foreign military assistance” by SA citizens, residents, and juristic persons
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RFMAA regulates “rendering of foreign military assistance” by SA citizens, residents, and juristic persons
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However, Denel still has a steep hill to climb as it has lost a lot of international credibility, so vital for export sales. Internal capacity to reliably support the SANDF is also lacking. Are these interventions enough to save Denel?
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November 27, 2025 at 12:08 PM
However, Denel still has a steep hill to climb as it has lost a lot of international credibility, so vital for export sales. Internal capacity to reliably support the SANDF is also lacking. Are these interventions enough to save Denel?
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The company reports progress in stabilising operations, rebuilding trust, strengthening governance, improving internal controls and upgrading ICT systems. It says it is stabilising its core business strengths & repositioning Denel as a trusted provider.
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November 27, 2025 at 12:08 PM
The company reports progress in stabilising operations, rebuilding trust, strengthening governance, improving internal controls and upgrading ICT systems. It says it is stabilising its core business strengths & repositioning Denel as a trusted provider.
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Project Hoefyster is way behind schedule and critically underfunded. Project management is lacking, as is accountability. This is a huge setback for the Army, who is continuing to rely on over 40-year-old Ratels.
Then, what's up with the RFI for a new 8x8 Vehicle Platform?
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Then, what's up with the RFI for a new 8x8 Vehicle Platform?
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November 26, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Project Hoefyster is way behind schedule and critically underfunded. Project management is lacking, as is accountability. This is a huge setback for the Army, who is continuing to rely on over 40-year-old Ratels.
Then, what's up with the RFI for a new 8x8 Vehicle Platform?
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Then, what's up with the RFI for a new 8x8 Vehicle Platform?
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Whilst Project Hoefyster, initiated around 2007, was initially funded via the Strategic Defence Account (SDA), the Defence budget cuts from 2017 onwards impacted the funds available for Project Hoefyster, as the project systematically moved to the right.
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November 26, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Whilst Project Hoefyster, initiated around 2007, was initially funded via the Strategic Defence Account (SDA), the Defence budget cuts from 2017 onwards impacted the funds available for Project Hoefyster, as the project systematically moved to the right.
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In summary, looks like only 1 battalion of Badgers may be acquired (roughly 88 vehicles). The funded requirement was 244.
The scope, schedule and funding of Phase 2 (Production) is still under review between Armscor, Denel and DOD, but really dependent on funding.
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The scope, schedule and funding of Phase 2 (Production) is still under review between Armscor, Denel and DOD, but really dependent on funding.
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November 26, 2025 at 10:28 AM
In summary, looks like only 1 battalion of Badgers may be acquired (roughly 88 vehicles). The funded requirement was 244.
The scope, schedule and funding of Phase 2 (Production) is still under review between Armscor, Denel and DOD, but really dependent on funding.
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The scope, schedule and funding of Phase 2 (Production) is still under review between Armscor, Denel and DOD, but really dependent on funding.
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Upcoming priorities: audits of stock and obsolescence, alignment of requirements with the SA Army, resolving hull and software issues, secure funding and securing a viable production partner.
But the current focus is on the completion of Phase 1 development.
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But the current focus is on the completion of Phase 1 development.
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November 26, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Upcoming priorities: audits of stock and obsolescence, alignment of requirements with the SA Army, resolving hull and software issues, secure funding and securing a viable production partner.
But the current focus is on the completion of Phase 1 development.
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But the current focus is on the completion of Phase 1 development.
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Denel issued an RFI in November 2025 to potential suppliers/OEMs for the 8x8 Vehicle Platform to gather information on product specifications, costs and collaborations.
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November 26, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Denel issued an RFI in November 2025 to potential suppliers/OEMs for the 8x8 Vehicle Platform to gather information on product specifications, costs and collaborations.
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A Ministerial Task Team is exploring avenues to stabilise the project, strengthen oversight and accelerate problem resolution. Denel and Armscor will formalise a new contracting mechanism for Phase 2, focusing on cost, schedule and performance control.
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November 26, 2025 at 10:28 AM
A Ministerial Task Team is exploring avenues to stabilise the project, strengthen oversight and accelerate problem resolution. Denel and Armscor will formalise a new contracting mechanism for Phase 2, focusing on cost, schedule and performance control.
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Denel’s financial and capacity problems, obsolescence risks, and delays in software qualification and testing have all contributed to the project slipping far behind schedule.
The scope, schedule, and funding for Phase 2 (Industrialisation/Production) are under review.
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The scope, schedule, and funding for Phase 2 (Industrialisation/Production) are under review.
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November 26, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Denel’s financial and capacity problems, obsolescence risks, and delays in software qualification and testing have all contributed to the project slipping far behind schedule.
The scope, schedule, and funding for Phase 2 (Industrialisation/Production) are under review.
/5
The scope, schedule, and funding for Phase 2 (Industrialisation/Production) are under review.
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Funding remains a major obstacle: only R1.93bn is available against a deficit of more than R6.6bn on the existing contract!
Total expenditure paid to date across open and closed Phase 1 and Phase 2 orders for Project Hoefyster is R7,724,050,919.02.
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Total expenditure paid to date across open and closed Phase 1 and Phase 2 orders for Project Hoefyster is R7,724,050,919.02.
/4
November 26, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Funding remains a major obstacle: only R1.93bn is available against a deficit of more than R6.6bn on the existing contract!
Total expenditure paid to date across open and closed Phase 1 and Phase 2 orders for Project Hoefyster is R7,724,050,919.02.
/4
Total expenditure paid to date across open and closed Phase 1 and Phase 2 orders for Project Hoefyster is R7,724,050,919.02.
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Phase 2 industrialisation and production remain under review. The SANDF still requires the NGICV, so the project will continue, despite major delays and significant cost implications.
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November 26, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Phase 2 industrialisation and production remain under review. The SANDF still requires the NGICV, so the project will continue, despite major delays and significant cost implications.
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