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Brad DeLong

@delong.social

20K followers 1.3K following 1.6K posts

Author of "Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the 20th Century". Too online since 1995. Sometime Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. UC Berkeley Professor.

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · Dec 2

< braddelong.substack.com >
< delong.typepad.com >
< delong.social >
< econ.berkeley.edu/profile/brad... >
[email protected] :: +1-925-708-0467

J. Bradford DeLong
Holgate House
2828 Webster St.
Berkeley, CA 94705

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality | Substack

Economic history, economics, political economy, finance, & forecasting. Here to try to make you (and me) smarter in a world with many increasingly deep & complicated troubles... Click to read Brad DeL...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 12h

...A contrarian take on exposition
< nealstephenson.substack.com/cp/175641716 >
2025-10-07 We 3/END

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 12h

...and running a Sub-Turing instantiation of the author on one's own wetware to converse with. That is perhaps the most important piece of learning to read, and of becoming a front-end node to the real ASI that is humanity's collective mind:
CROSSPOST: NEAL STEPHENSON: Say it, don't show it... 2/

Say it, don't show it

A contrarian take on exposition

nealstephenson.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 12h

Neal Stephenson tells us: Dickens could do in 15 words what "show it, don't tell it" would need 15 sentences of paragraphs to accomplish. It works for a reader willing to do the work of coöperating with the author in the construction of the fictional world portrayed—which requires spinning-up... 1/

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 17h

For a Normal U.S. Government to Shoulder "Credit Risk" Can Be Fine. But This Is Not a Normal U.S. Government, Is It?
Chaos monkeys promising unconditional U.S. financial support for unsustainable Argentinian economic policies is a royal road to disaster…
braddelong.substack.com/p/for-a-norm...

https://braddelong.substack.com/p/for-a-normal-us-government-to-shoulder>

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 1d

On Peter Thiel's AntiChrist
“Restrainer” Politics: Billionaire TechBro Peter Thiel, Nazi Political Philosopher-Theologian Carl Schmitt, Pacifist Christians René Girard & Wolfgang Palaver, the AntiChrist & his enemies, & J.D. Vance & the scapegoating of the…
braddelong.substack.com/p/on-peter-t...

On Peter Thiel's AntiChrist

“Restrainer” Politics: Billionaire TechBro Peter Thiel, Nazi Political Philosopher-Theologian Carl Schmitt, Pacifist Christians René Girard & Wolfgang Palaver, the AntiChrist & his enemies, & J.D...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 1d

What Happened with Elon Musk & the "CyberTruck", Anyway?

EV freedom vs. bunker aesthetics: how the Cybertruck squandered the skateboard, and misfired as its stainless shell met actual materials-science physics. A bold silhouette, a brittle reality: the…

braddelong.substack.com/p/what-happe...

What Happened with Elon Musk & the "CyberTruck", Anyway?

EV freedom vs. bunker aesthetics: how the Cybertruck squandered the skateboard, and misfired as its stainless shell met actual materials-science physics. A bold silhouette, a brittle reality: the...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 2d

Does replying count as participating? - B.

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 3d

How Many Magics to Human Prosperity & Progress?
Call off the cults and the funerals. “AI”’s real advance is high‑dimensional prediction that generalizes without interpretable laws. That’s operational power, not Turing-Class cognition. Noah Smith says: Think…
braddelong.substack.com/p/how-many-m...

How Many Magics to Human Prosperity & Progress?

Call off the cults and the funerals. “AI”’s real advance is high‑dimensional prediction that generalizes without interpretable laws. That’s operational power, not Turing-Class cognition. Noah Smith...

braddelong.substack.com

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 3d

The Ongoing Trumpist Unmaking of U.S. Network Power: Tariffs, Ambivalence, & the Slow Isolation & Hence Decline
Yes, Henry Luce’s “American Century” is now over. Any further questions? Tariffs tax deterrence; & policy volatility prices U.S. reliability of…
braddelong.substack.com/p/the-ongoin...

The Ongoing Trumpist Unmaking of U.S. Network Power: Tariffs, Ambivalence, & the Slow Isolation & Hence Decline

Yes, Henry Luce’s “American Century” is now over. Any further questions? Tariffs tax deterrence; & policy volatility prices U.S. reliability out of potential allies’ long-run planning along both...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 3d

READING: Henry Luce (1941): The American Century
Luce’s manifesto and the world order that it… signposted…

2025-10-05 Su
#reading-henry-luce-1941-the-american-century

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 4d

Cf. James Scott, "Seeing Like a State"...

Thanks much. Be as well as one can be in a world in which while one may well be, personally, quite comfortable, we live in a world in which no man is an island. Yours,

J. Bradford DeLong
<http://braddelong.substack.com>

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 4d

Yes indeed. History rhyming with the "interwar" period is not a great thing...

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 5d

Abstraction Layers: In Arithmetic & Elsewhere
Counting to 84 by offshoring much of the real work to your information-technology ASI arabic-numeral symbolic copilot, and other topics about variation in proper education for the kind of numeroliteracy…
braddelong.substack.com/p/abstractio...

Abstraction Layers: In Arithmetic & Elsewhere

Counting to 84 by offshoring much of the real work to your information-technology ASI arabic-numeral symbolic copilot, and other topics about variation in proper education for the kind of...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 5d

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Why Gillian Tett's Anthropological Take on the World Is Very Useful
Why you should listen to her; a N2PE event from 2021-11-18 Th…
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/hoisted-from-the-archives-why-gillian>
2025-10-03 Fr

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 5d

Notes on the Berkeley "The AI Con" Book Launch Event
2025-10-02 16:00 PDT (Th): 470 Stephens Hall: Alex Hanna, Timnit Gebru, Khari Johnson, & Tamara Kneese. 2025. “The AI Con Book Roundtable”…
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/notes-on-the-berkeley-the-ai-con>
2025-10-03 Fr

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 6d

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: The Music to the Zombie Dance of Human Society Changes Its Key...
From 2.5 years ago. Time to start thinking about this, again, and about what I would change, and will change as versions of this go into both What Rough Beast &...
braddelong.substack.com/p/hoisted-fr...

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: The Music to the Zombie Dance of Human Society Changes Its Key...

From 2.5 years ago. Time to start thinking about this, again, and about what I would change, and will change as versions of this go into both What Rough Beast & Enlarging the Scope of Human Empire. Al

braddelong.substack.com

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 7d

No. There Are No Even Half-Competent Chaos Monkeys in the Trump Administration. Any Questions?
Bessent needs to go. And quickly. Dan Drezner said last week that one good thing that could be said about Scott Bessent was that he was 10% less crazy than the…
braddelong.substack.com/p/no-there-a...

No. There Are No Even Half-Competent Chaos Monkeys in the Trump Administration. Any Questions?

Bessent needs to go. And quickly. Dan Drezner said last week that one good thing that could be said about Scott Bessent was that he was 10% less crazy than the other Trumpist chaos monkeys...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 7d

I said that!

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 7d

Lisa Cook Is Not Yet Evicted from the Federal Reserve Board
It was such a huge mistake in 2021 not to expand the Supreme Court. The lawless Republican justices had already said who they were: lawless partisan hypocrites. And yet Manchin and company would...
braddelong.substack.com/p/lisa-cook-...

Lisa Cook Is Not Yet Evicted from the Federal Reserve Board

It was such a huge mistake in 2021 not to expand the Supreme Court. The lawless Republican justices had already said who they were: lawless partisan hypocrites. And yet Manchin and company would...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 7d

So Far We Would Only Expect Islands, Not Continents, & Even Those Knee-Deep Swamps of "WorkSlop"
A Wednesday Morning Take on Why We Would Have Expected to See Business-AI Enthusiasts Disappointed at This Stage: The dynamo, the computer, & now today’s GPT…
braddelong.substack.com/p/so-far-we-...

So Far We Would Only Expect Islands, Not Continents, & Even Those Knee-Deep Swamps of "WorkSlop"

The dynamo, the computer, & now today’s GPT (this use; General-Purpose Transformers) LLM MAMLMs: “workslop” is not new, GPTs (this use: General-Purpose Technologies) pay out only after...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 9d

They have TV cameras watching them. They are not **alone**, but rather have a lot of support. And even so—common MedEvacs

Brad DeLong @delong.social · 9d

Does Each of Us Have a Big Enough Brain to Compensate for Our Lack of Fangs, Claws, Sprinting Speed, & Dodging Quickness?
I say: “No”. Not individually we don’t. The Scarecrow in “The Wizard of Oz” had a greatly exaggerated view of what he would have been…
braddelong.substack.com/p/does-each-...

Does Each of Us Have a Big Enough Brain to Compensate for Our Lack of Fangs, Claws, Sprinting Speed, & Dodging Quickness?

I say: “No”. Not individually we don’t. The Scarecrow in “The Wizard of Oz” had a greatly exaggerated view of what he would have been able to do if he only had a brain…

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 11d

... braddelong.substack.com/p/hoistedcro... 4/END

HOISTED/CROSSPOST: Richard S. Sutton: The Bitter Lesson

The 2019 note on the power of computation: revisiting Sutton’s Bitter Lesson in the age of GPT MAMLMs, which have proven the Bitter Lesson much truer than Sutton would have dared imagine in areas...

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 11d

...an Anthology phenomenon that humans have often built themselves into; thus distributed human intelligence networked via institutions will stay smarter than any potential rogue:
CROSSPOST: TIMOTHY B. LEE: The case for AI doom isn't very convincing
The case for AI doom isn't very convincing… 3/

HOISTED/CROSSPOST: Richard S. Sutton: The Bitter Lesson

braddelong.substack.com

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Brad DeLong @delong.social · 11d

...is, I think, better, and certainly much more digestible. Briefly: life ain’t a perfect-information game where the best deep-learner wins; technologies that can build an ASI also greatly amplify human intelligence; Bletchley Park & the Manhattan Project show that true Super-Intelligence is... 2/

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