Concerns about a job-market slowdown are overriding jitters about inflation in justifying a pivot towards a shallow sequence of rate reductions

I was human shoe shopping and someone recommended Nike. I managed to pry this Nike from a storefront, but it's unclear to me how I'm supposed to wear it on my feet? Maybe it's a UFO? But first... ## What's the Word on the Street? As I write this, the market is down despite the strong retail sales figures released this morning. > [“Retail sales rose 0.6% last month after an upwardly revised 0.6% advance in July, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday. > > Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, rising 0.2% following a previously reported 0.5% gain in June. > > Some of the rise in retail sales last month was probably due to tariff-driven price increases rather than volumes.”](https://apple.news/AgcILQkaMSqGrD21hGAr3cQ) The main event this week is tomorrow's Fed's interest rate decision. At 2:00 EST, the Federal Reserve will release an announcement on any possible rate decision (expected to be 25 basis point cut) and their reasoning behind it. At 2:30, the Chairman will give a press conference that may shed more light on the path for future rate cuts. The market will be paying close attention for any clues. ## Nike (NKE) Nike providing advice on what to do when your rival appears at your doorstep which is completely normal and happens to everyone. ### What Is It? > NIKE, Inc. engages in the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, accessories, equipment, and services. It operates through the following segments: North America, Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), Greater China, Asia Pacific and Latin America (APLA), Global Brand Divisions, Converse, and Corporate. The North America, EMEA, Greater China, and APLA segments refer to the design, development, marketing, and selling of athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment. The Global Brand Divisions segment represents its NIKE Brand licensing businesses. The Converse segment designs, markets, licenses, and sells casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories. The Corporate segment is composed of unallocated general and administrative expenses. The company was founded by William Jay Bowerman and Philip Hampson Knight on January 25, 1964 and is headquartered in Beaverton, OR. The listed name for NKE is Nike, Inc. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value, what other option traders expect, and its volatility are the reasons NKE could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? Citigroup analyst Paul Lejuez maintained a Neutral rating this morning with a price target of $74 from $68. Otherwise, Nike's major headwinds are competition and tariffs. Another analyst at TD Cowen, John Kernan, believes that consumer interest is moving up and the de minimus exemption is baked into the current stock price. NKE will be reporting earnings soon on 09/30, with an expected move of 8.05% or $5.82. ### What's the Current Price? Line chart showing NKE falling 8.74% in the past year Even though NKE has been down on the year and within the past 9 months by ~5%, it's been up ~17.50% in the past 3 months. But it's down on the month by ~7% and ~3% on the week. It's down again about a percent on the day. ### What’s the Fair Value? Analyst fair value ratings for NKE I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since NKE's most recent earnings report on 06/26/2025, it has received 15 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $81.53. 10 ratings are a Buy, 4 are a Hold, and the Morningstar rating is unknown. The lowest price target is $64, while the highest is $104. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? NKE Calls and Puts for the October 31st expiration Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $70 Put it says $2.85, it’s $3.15 for the equidistant Call at $75. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down. ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing NKE's volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for NKE (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 56.55, which is fairly high (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) more attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. NKE **does** offer a dividend with a yield of 2.15%. It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 2 contracts of the $66 Put for the October 31st expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with NKE (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

I decided to shop for my Halloween outfit and came upon this spooky disguise! The scythe keeps whispering something about wanting to reap souls? I think it might be a UFO! But before I get to that… ## What’s the Word on the Street? The market is mostly up, except for the Dow which is basically flat. Wednesday is the big day this week for the market. The Federal Reserve will be meeting Tuesday and Wednesday and will announce their interest rate cut decision on Wednesday afternoon. It’s widely expected that there will be a 25 basis point cut this week, but what will be most interesting are any clues as to how many more cuts could be in store this year, if any. ## Robinhood Markets (HOOD) HOOD promotional image announcing its own social network for traders ### What Is It? > Robinhood Markets, Inc is a financial services platform, which engages in the provision of retail brokerage and offers trading in U.S. listed stocks and Exchange Traded Funds, related options, and cryptocurrency trading, as well as cash management, which includes debit cards services. The company was founded by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Prafulkumar Bhatt in 2013 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, CA. The listed name for HOOD is Robinhood Markets, Inc. Class A Common Stock. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value and what other option traders expect are the reasons HOOD could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? I traded HOOD recently and was able to close out fairly quickly due to it being selected to join the S&P (which I predicted last time I wrote about HOOD). Since then, HOOD held a conference to announce many new features. It also filed to launch a closed-end fund for retail traders to access private firms. ### What’s the Current Price? Line chart showing HOOD rising 426.49% in the past year It goes without saying HOOD has had an incredible run over the past 12 months. Year to date it’s up almost ~200% and ~55% in the past 3 months. It’s up again modestly over the past month and week ~5%, but down on the day. ### What’s the Fair Value? Analyst fair value ratings for HOOD I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since HOOD’s most recent earnings report on 07/30/2025, it has received 9 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $122.11. 7 ratings are a Buy, 2 are a Hold. The lowest price target is $106, while the highest is $145. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? HOOD Calls and Puts for the October 31st expiration Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $112 Put it says $8.55, it’s $8.75 for the equidistant Call at $117. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down. ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing HOOD’s volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for HOOD (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 14.57, which is fairly low (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) less attractive. ## What's the Trade? HOOD Calls and Puts for the October 31st expiration, but this time showing the trade I placed My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. HOOD **does** **not** offer a dividend, but that’s not a dealbreaker! It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 1 contract of the $90 Put for the October 31st expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ## Completed Trades aTyr Pharma (ATYR) Might Be a UFO!I saw a large dog and tried to pet it, but it ended up eating my hand instead! Luckily like all humans, it will grow back. This stock is a little outside what I would normally trade, but it appeared on one of my scanners for the first time andUFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC for -30.96% profit ATYR went down ~80% this morning due to a failed drug trail. I chose to exit this position early because I decided it would be better to lose a little bit, rather than wait for assignment and take the entire premium I received and then try to recover and possibly make a profit later with covered calls. It just didn’t seem worth it for a trade I was already skeptical of. It’s a shame, because the stock was up something like ~17% on Friday and if the volume was there I probably could have exited with my usual 50%+ profit. But that’s ok, losses happen! The lesson to learn I think is to stick with better stocks (I’m not even sure how it ended up on my scanner in the first place). Because, like I mention in the “What’s the Trade?” section, getting assigned is usually fine because you get to keep the entire premium and then run covered calls on a stock that is possibly undervalued, so it should eventually recover. But an 80% drop was just too far below my strike and I didn’t want to waste more time on it. ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with HOOD (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

These credit cards are an amazing deal, I can buy whatever I want and I don't have to use any cash! That means everything is basically free...right? Either way, I'm suspicious it might be a UFO! But before I discuss that... ## What's the Word on the Street? As of me writing this, the Dow and Russell are down, while the S&P is flat and the Nasdaq is up. Overall it's been a solid week for the market with a downward surprise with the PPI (Producer Price Index) on Wednesday and the almost-at-expectations (but slightly hot) CPI (Consumer Price Index) yesterday. Consumer sentiment released this morning and came in below expectations. All of this still points to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next week on Wednesday, which has kept investors in a good mood. ## PayPal (PYPL) A hand holding a PayPal credit card ### What Is It? > PayPal Holdings, Inc. engages in the development of technology platforms that enable digital payments and simplifies commerce experiences on behalf of merchants and consumers worldwide. Its solutions include PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, and Paydiant products. The firm also enables consumers to exchange funds with merchants using funding sources, which include bank account, PayPal account balance, PayPal Credit account, credit, and debit card or other stored value products. It operates through United States and Other Countries geographical segments. The company was founded in December 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, CA. The listed name for PYPL is PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value and what other option traders expect are the reasons PYPL could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? There isn't a lot of news related to PayPal. A few weeks ago Germany blocked payments because of a widespread disruption. But PayPal is basically a play on consumers. Consumer sentiment came back lower than expected today, but CPI showed people are still spending. With PayPal looking undervalued and the economy still in relatively fine shape (and hopefully expected to get better?), I think PayPal can still work as a trade. ### What's the Current Price? Line chart showing PayPal falling 3.15% over the past year Basically flat in the past 12 months, but down on the year by ~22%. PYPL has also been down ~10% in the past 3 months, ~3% in the past month, ~2% in the past week, and down on the day by about half a percent. ### What’s the Fair Value? Analyst fair value ratings for PYPL I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since PYPL's most recent earnings report on 07/29/2025, it has received 4 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $91. 2 ratings are a Buy, 1 is a Hold, and the Morningstar rating is unknown. The lowest price target is $75, while the highest is $100. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? PYPL Calls and Puts for the October 31st expiration Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $64 Put it says $1.99, it’s $2.87 for the equidistant Call at $69. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down. ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing PYPL's volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for PYPL (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 5.76, which is very low (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) less attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. PYPL **does** **not** offer a dividend, but that’s not a dealbreaker! It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 4 contracts of the $56 Put for the October 31st expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with PYPL (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

Today I decided to try jumping with my On moon boots while on the moon! I actually took this trade yesterday, but it fell a bit more since then, so I wanted to write about it today. But before I get to that... ## What's the Word on the Street? All indexes are solidly up this morning because of a basically in-line CPI (Consumer Price Index) release. > It was a confusing batch of numbers, with the consumer price index reading for August coming in hotter than expected on a monthly basis but in line with expectations on an annual basis. > The CPI reading showed an increase of 0.4% for the month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, higher than the 0.3% that economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting. However, the index recorded 2.9% on a 12-month basis, as expected. > Additionally, so-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, increased 0.3% in August and 3.1% from a year ago. Both were in line with the Dow Jones forecasts. > The report comes a day after the producer price index showed an unexpected decline of 0.1% on the month. The PPI rose 2.6% on a 12-month basis. > Also on Thursday, weekly jobless claims saw a surprise jump. The figure for the week ended Sept. 6 increased 27,000 from the previous period to a seasonally adjusted 263,000. That's more than the 235,000 that was penciled in. All of this data seems to point to the Federal Reserve being all but assured to cut interest rates next week (probably by .25%), which investors are taking as good news. ## On Holding (ONON) Promotional image declaring ONON's mission of igniting the human spirt through movement ### What Is It? > On Holding AG engages in the development and distribution of sports products such as footwear, apparel, and accessories for high-performance running, outdoor, all-day activities, and tennis. It sells its products worldwide through independent retailers and global distributors, its own online presence, and its own stores. The company was founded by David Allemann, Olivier Bernhard, and Caspar Coppetti in January 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland. The listed name for ONON is On Holding AG. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value and what other option traders expect are the reasons ONON could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? Not much has changed since I last wrote about ONON. It raised its outlook on strong sales numbers a few weeks ago when it reported earnings. The stock has suffered recently because the company is based in Switzerland, which is currently subjected to one of the highest tariff rates (39%). I would expect at some point that the rate will be negotiated down and should boost the stock. ### What's the Current Price? Line chart showing ONON falling 5.02% in the past year In 2025, ONON has slid ~22%. Most of that was in the past 3 months with it falling ~25%. In the past month it's down ~12%, and on the week ~4%. ### What’s the Fair Value? Analyst fair value ratings for ONON I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since ONON's most recent earnings report on 08/12/2025, it has received 3 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $62.67. 2 ratings are a Buy and 1 rating is a Sell. The lowest price target is $40, while the highest is $79. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? ONON Calls and Puts for the October 24th expiration Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $40 Put it says $1.08, it’s $1.43 for the equidistant Call at $45. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down. ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing ONON's volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for ONON (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 13.64, which is pretty low (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) less attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. ONON **does** **not** offer a dividend, but that’s not a dealbreaker! It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 2 contracts of the $40 Put for the October 24th expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with ONON (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

I saw a large dog and tried to pet it, but it ended up eating my hand instead! Luckily like all humans, it will grow back. This stock is a little outside what I would normally trade, but it appeared on one of my scanners for the first time and I decided to take a chance since the collateral requirement was incredibly low. I'll discuss that, but first... ## What's the Word on the Street? As I write this, every index except the Dow is up. PPI came in cooler than expected, which boosted the chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. > The producer price index, which measures input costs across a broad array of goods and services, dropped 0.1% for the month, after a downwardly revised 0.7% increase in July and well off the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% rise. On a 12-month basis, the headline PPI saw a 2.6% gain. > The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also was off 0.1% after being expected to climb 0.3% as well. Excluding food, energy and trade, the PPI posted a 0.3% gain and was up 2.8% from a year ago. Also, Oracle reported earnings last night that showed AI spending is still going strong. ## aTyr Pharma (ATYR) Explanation of ATYR's tRNA Synthetase science ### What Is It? > aTyr Pharma, Inc. engages in the discovery and development of medicines based on novel biological pathways. Its product pipeline includes ATYR1923, ATYR2810, NRP2 mAbs, and AARS-1, DARS-1. The company was founded by Paul Schimmel, Xiang-Lei Yang and Bruce Beutler on September 8, 2005 and is headquartered in San Diego, CA. The listed name for ATYR is aTyr Pharma, Inc. Common Stock. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value, what other option traders expect, and its volatility are the reasons ATYR could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? There isn't a lot going on for ATYR when checking my normal sources. It's all very bland newswire stuff. The stock was added to the Russell 2000 and 3000 about 10 weeks ago. ### What's the Current Price? Line chart showing ATYR rising 178.53% over the past year ATYR has risen quite a lot in the past year. For 2025 it's been up ~44%, but down in the past 3 months ~2%, down ~6% on the month, down ~8% in the past week and down slightly on the day. ### What’s the Fair Value? I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since ATYR's most recent earnings report on 08/12/2025, it has received 1 rating, so there's no need to average anything! According to Roger Song at Jefferies, the fair value is $17 with a Buy. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? ATYR Calls and Puts for the October 17th expiration Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $4 Put it says $2.10, it’s $2.65 for the equidistant Call at $7. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down. ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing ATYR's volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for ATYR (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 94.85, which is extremely high (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) much more attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. ATYR **does** **not** offer a dividend, but that’s not a dealbreaker! It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 1 contract of the $4 Put for the October 17th expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ## Completed Trades NVIDIA (NVDA) Might Be a UFO!Everyone keeps talking about Nvidia’s chips and when I tried them they weren’t very edible, but they could be a UFO! But first... What’s the Word on the Street? The August jobs report released this morning before the bell and showed a weaker-than-expected labor market. The estimated amount of jobsUFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC with 55.67% profit CoreWeave (CRWV) Might Be a UFO!It’s August so that means it’s the official start of pumpkin spice season! I already weaved a brand new scarf and hat to celebrate, as is normal human tradition. But before I discuss why CoreWeave might be a UFO... What’s the Word on the Street? The market is up yetUFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC with 55.50% profit GitLab (GTLB) Might Be a UFO!I found some weird leaf on the ground and when I touched it, I was able to glide through the air! I think it might be a UFO! What does any of that have to do with GitLab? Well I thought its logo was a fox and apparently it’s actuallyUFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC with 50% profit ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with ATYR (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

The producer price index was expected to increase 0.3% in August, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

A new iPhone is being announced today and this might look like one of my previous doodles, but now my phone is so much thinner! But before I discuss why ASTS might be a UFO... ## What's the Word on the Street? As of me writing this, the major indexes are basically flat, except for the Russell which is down. The Nasdaq is at a record high while the market waits for the two inflation reports releasing on Wednesday (PPI) and Thursday (CPI). If either comes in hotter than expected, it shouldn't change the expectation that the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates later this month. But depending on how hot, it could affect the speed and aggressiveness of future rate cuts. ## AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Promotional image showing ASTS's technology ### What Is It? > AST Spacemobile, Inc. engages in building a broadband cellular network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on an extensive IP and patent portfolio. It focuses on providing mobile broadband services with global coverage to all end-users, without the need to purchase special equipment. The company was founded by Abel Avellan on May 31, 2017 and is headquartered in Midland, TX. The listed name for ASTS is AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Class A Common Stock. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value and what other option traders expect are the reasons ASTS could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? ASTS took a tumble today after an analyst downgraded the stock to Neutral and cut the price target from $62 to $43. There is a fear that ASTS may be overvalued and facing increased competition from SpaceX (which recently secured a $17 billion deal with EchoStar). ### What's the Current Price? Line chart showing ASTS rising 43.39% in the past year ASTS has had a great run over the past year, but since the beginning of 2025 it's gone up ~77%. It fell ~20% in the past month, ~24% on the week, and ~8% on the day. ### What’s the Fair Value? I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since ASTS's most recent earnings report on 08/13/2025, it has received 2 ratings. But the ratings were issued by the same person, so I’m only taking their most recent one...which means there is nothing to average! So the fair value according to Christopher Schoell at UBS is $43 as a Hold. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? ASTS Calls and Puts for the October 24th expiration Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $33 Put it says $1.64, it’s $2.31 for the equidistant Call at $44. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down. ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing ASTS's volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for ASTS (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 13.46, which is somewhat low (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) less attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. ASTS **does** **not** offer a dividend, but that’s not a dealbreaker! It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 1 contract of the $33 Put for the October 24th expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ## Completed Trades MARA Holdings (MARA) Might Be a UFO!I was hunting UFOs when I suddenly found myself in a long foot race with a bunch of other fellow humans. But before I discuss that… What’s the Word on the Street? The market was largely lower today, weighed down by tech. We’re still basically in a holding pattern untilUFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC with 50% profit CoreWeave (CRWV) Might Be a UFO!It’s now September which means we’re deeper into pumpkin spice season! To celebrate I weaved a sweater to match my hat and scarf, but could it be a UFO? I’m still holding onto my previous CRWV trade that proved to be more of a falling knife, ratherUFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC with 50% profit ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with ASTS (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

Well I couldn't resist touching that weird leaf again and now I'm even more of a Tanooki Alien! I mean Tanooki Human! After finishing the GTLB trade I placed on Thursday the very next day, I saw it was down again this morning and quickly scooped it up before it started rising again. I'll discuss why I still think it's a UFO, but first... ## What's the Word on the Street? As I write this, the market is mostly up with the Russell being the exception. Investors are waiting for 2 data releases later this week to get a better read on inflation. First is PPI (Producer Price Index) on Wednesday and then CPI (Consumer Price Index) on Thursday. Both will show how producers/manufactures and consumers are dealing with inflation. Though I will note that neither are the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (that would be the PCE), but investors tend to watch closely regardless. ## GitLab (GTLB) Accolades for GTLB ### What Is It? > Gitlab, Inc. provides code hosting and collaboration platform services. It offers continuous integration, source code management, out-of-the-box pipelines, agile development, and value stream management. The company was founded by Dmitriy Zaporozhets and Sid Sijbrandij in 2011 and is headquartered in Dover, DE. The listed name for GTLB is GitLab Inc. Class A Common Stock. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value, what other option traders expect, and its volatility are the reasons GTLB could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? There's nothing new since I last wrote about GTLB. Basically, it posted earnings last week that beat expectations, but issued weaker-than-expected revenue guidance. ### What's the Current Price? Line chart showing GTLB falling 18.85% in the past year GTLB is still down quite a bit in the past year. In the past 3 months it's down ~6%, but up ~15% in the past month. It's down on the week over ~2% and when I got this trade, it was down on the day before rising. ### What’s the Fair Value? Analyst fair value ratings for GTLB I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since GTLB most recent earnings report on 09/03/2025, it has received 12 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $53.67. 11 ratings are a Buy and 1 rating is a Hold. The lowest price target is $44, while the highest is $70. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? GTLB Calls and Puts for the October 24th expiration Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $40 Put it says $0.90, it’s $1.10 for the equidistant Call at $51. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down. ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing GTLB's volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for GTLB (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 31.72, which is somewhat elevated (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) more attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. GTLB **does** **not** offer a dividend, but that’s not a dealbreaker! It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 2 contracts of the $40 Put for the October 24th expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ## Completed Trades Robinhood (HOOD) Might Be a UFO!That strange lamb I was researching yesterday mentioned a recent “big score” which was just this red hood and picnic basket. I think it might be a UFO! But first… What’s the Word on the Street? The market is mostly up today despite last night’s threat from the PresidentUFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC with 54.40% profit TeraWulf (WULF) Might Be a UFO!After conducting research on a lamb last week, another suddenly appeared and seems slightly off… This new lamb keeps trying to get to the other one, but it’s growling and getting angry. I’ll keep them separated for now, but I’m wondering if it could be a UFO!UFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC with 50% profit ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with GTLB (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

Everyone keeps talking about Nvidia's chips and when I tried them they weren't very edible, but they could be a UFO! But first... ## What's the Word on the Street? The August jobs report released this morning before the bell and showed a weaker-than-expected labor market. The estimated amount of jobs created last month was expected to be 75,000, but it was actually 22,000. That's a pretty big difference and initially the market rallied off of that. The rationale was that the Fed would have no choice but to cut interest rates. But after more thought, investors decided it was actually not good and could mean that the economy is slipping into recession. ## NVIDIA (NVDA) Promotional image showing NVDA's cloud gaming service on multiple devices ### What Is It? > NVIDIA Corp. engages in the design and manufacture of computer graphics processors, chipsets, and related multimedia software. It operates through the following segments: Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) and Compute & Networking. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics, virtual GPU, or vGPU, software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating metaverse and 3D internet applications. The Compute & Networking segment consists of Data Center accelerated computing platforms and end-to-end networking platforms including Quantum for InfiniBand and Spectrum for Ethernet, NVIDIA DRIVE automated-driving platform and automotive development agreements, Jetson robotics and other embedded platforms, NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software, and DGX Cloud software and services. The company was founded by Jen Hsun Huang, Chris A. Malachowsky, and Curtis R. Priem in April 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA. The listed name for NVDA is NVIDIA Corporation Common Stock. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value is the reason NVDA could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? Broadcom won a deal with OpenAI worth $10 billion and is attempting to challenge NVDA's dominance in AI hardware. The Chinese government has been dissuading domestic companies from buying Nvidia chips. And the U.S. government recently struck a deal to take 15% of any chips sold to China. Despite the bad news, the stock has been in a rut and there could be an opportunity for a trade. ### What's the Current Price? Line chart showing NVDA rising 58.69% in the past year NVDA has had a great run for quite a while. But the stock is down ~7% on the month and ~8% on the week. On the day the stock is down ~3%. ### What’s the Fair Value? Analyst fair values ratings for NVDA I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since NVDA's most recent earnings report on 08/27/2025, it has received 14 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $217.36. 12 ratings are a Buy, 1 is a Hold, and the Morningstar rating is unknown. The lowest price target is $195, while the highest is $245. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? NVDA Calls and Puts for the October 17th expiration Puts are trading over equidistant Calls, which means traders think there is a chance to the downside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $150 Put it says $2.43, it’s $2.03 for the equidistant Call at $185. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently more for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go down, rather than up. _Note: When I originally placed this trade, the premiums were reversed with traders expecting the stock to go up. By the time I took this screenshot, it had turned against me. That's ok! It's just one indicator._ ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing NVDA's volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for NVDA (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 8.76, which is pretty low (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) less attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. NVDA **does** offer a dividend with a small yield of 0.02%. It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 1 contract of the $150 Put for the October 17th expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ## Completed Trade GitLab (GTLB) Might Be a UFO!I found some weird leaf on the ground and when I touched it, I was able to glide through the air! I think it might be a UFO! What does any of that have to do with GitLab? Well I thought its logo was a fox and apparently it’s actuallyUFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC with 50% profit ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with NVDA (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

I found some weird leaf on the ground and when I touched it, I was able to glide through the air! I think it might be a UFO! What does any of that have to do with GitLab? Well I thought its logo was a fox and apparently it's actually a tanuki (Japanese raccoon dog). That got me thinking about Tanooki Mario. But before I get to GTLB... ## What's the Word on the Street? All indexes are currently up as private payrolls showed slowing growth and unemployment claims came in higher than expected. Investors took that as data as weak enough to ensure rate cuts, but strong enough to not have the economy plunge into recession. All that comes before the anticipated monthly jobs report releasing tomorrow. We'll get a chance to see a more comprehensive picture of how the labor market is doing. It may also affect how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be as they begin to cut interest rates. ## GitLab (GTLB) Promotional image touting all the features of GitLab ### What Is It? > Gitlab, Inc. provides code hosting and collaboration platform services. It offers continuous integration, source code management, out-of-the-box pipelines, agile development, and value stream management. The company was founded by Dmitriy Zaporozhets and Sid Sijbrandij in 2011 and is headquartered in Dover, DE. The listed name for GTLB is GitLab Inc. Class A Common Stock. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value, what other option traders expect, and its volatility are the reasons GTLB could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? GTLB reported its earnings and despite beating expectations, it issued weaker-than-expected revenue guidance. > The company, which provides software-development tools, also said its chief financial officer is stepping down later this month. > GitLab said Wednesday it now expects adjusted earnings per share of 82 cents to 83 cents for the year, up from its prior guidance of 74 cents to 75 cents. It continues to forecast full-year revenue of $936 million to $942 million. > Analysts polled by FactSet were looking for adjusted per-share earnings of 75 cents on revenue of $940.8 million. > The updated outlook comes after the company swung to a loss of $9.21 million, or 6 cents a share, in the second quarter, compared with a profit of $12.9 million, or 8 cents a share, a year earlier. > Adjusted earnings per share were 24 cents, ahead of estimates for 16 cents a share according to analysts polled by FactSet. > Revenue rose 29% to $236 million, topping the $226.9 million expected by analysts. ### What's the Current Price? Year to date line chart showing GTLB falling 25.20% GTLB hasn't had a good year so far, but it's notably down ~8% on the day after reporting earnings, so I want to take advantage of a possible investor overreaction to weaker-than-expected guidance. It's always a bit of a gamble on when is the best time to jump in, because an expected rebound can easily turn into a catching a falling knife situation. But I'm not so worried about entering the trade early because of... ### What’s the Fair Value? Analyst fair value ratings for GTLB I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since GTLB most recent earnings report on 09/03/2025, it has received 9 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $59.22. All ratings are a Buy. The lowest price target is $53, while the highest is $70. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? GTLB Calls and Puts for the October 17th expiration Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $37.5 Put it says $0.95, it’s $1.00 for the equidistant Call at $50. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down. ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing GTLB's volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for GTLB (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 50.65, which is fairly high (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) more attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. GTLB **does** **not** offer a dividend, but that’s not a dealbreaker! It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 2 contracts of the $37.5 Put for the October 17th expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with GTLB (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

‘Economic uncertainty and tariffs [are] negative factors’

It’s now September which means we’re deeper into pumpkin spice season! To celebrate I weaved a sweater to match my hat and scarf, but could it be a UFO? I’m still holding onto my previous CRWV trade that proved to be more of a falling knife, rather than the quick rebound trade I had hoped for, but that’s ok! That trade and today’s trade both still have strikes below the current price. Typically I don’t like to hold onto more than 1 trade with the same stock, but since it’s been beaten up so much, I wanted to give it another shot. ## What’s the Word on the Street? The market is currently mixed with the Dow and Russell down and the S&P and Nasdaq up. Last night Alphabet (Google) received a ruling that allowed it to hold onto its Chrome browser. The market took that as a win and a reason for tech stocks to rally today. In other news, JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) survey released showing… > The number of people hired in July totaled 5.31 million, but the increase was almost entirely offset by 5.29 million “separations” —layoffs, job quitters, retirements and so forth. > The layoff rate in the private sector registered 1.3% for the second month in a row, but warning signs might be flashing. > The rate has crept up from a record low of 1% one year ago. From 2010 to 2019, the layoff rate averaged 1.4% each year. ## CoreWeave (CRWV) Promotional image announcing CoreWeave acquiring Core Scientific. Double the cores! ### What Is It? > CoreWeave is a cloud infrastructure company that provides high-performance computing resources optimized for workloads such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, visual effects, and batch processing. The listed name for CRWV is CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value and what other option traders expect (maybe) are the reasons CRWV could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? CRWV has been limping since its most recent earnings, which beat expectations, but showed a steeper loss than analysts expected. That combined with investors scrutinizing AI spending, a deal for Core Scientific that will probably need to be negotiated, and insider selling after the IPO lockout period has hurt the stock price of CRWV. ### What’s the Current Price? Year to date line chart showing CRWV rising 139.11% I actually took this screenshot yesterday when I originally took the trade, but since the stock has fallen a bit more today, I decided it was still worth writing about. Despite the great run since its IPO debut, CRWV is down ~27% over the past 3 months, down ~12% in the past month and down again slightly on the week and day. ### What’s the Fair Value? Analyst fair value ratings for CRWV I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since CRWV’s most recent earnings report on 08/12/2025, it has received 7 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $124.14. 2 ratings are a Buy and 5 are a Hold. The lowest price target is $65, while the highest is $180. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? CRWV Calls and Puts for the October 17th expiration Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $92.5 Put it says $8.25, it’s $8.30 for the equidistant Call at $100. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down. _Note: I took this screenshot once the trade was filled. It seems the premiums changed from when I had originally placed the trade, and looking again now, option traders seem to be unsure whether CRWV will move up or down based on premiums._ ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing CRWV’s volatility over the past 6 months The IV rank (the purple line) for CRWV (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 5.84, which is very low (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) less attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. CRWV **does** **not** offer a dividend, but that’s not a dealbreaker! It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 1 contract of the $75 Put for the October 17th expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have open trades with CRWV (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

I found this hammer on the ground that no one else seemed to be able to pick up. I must be really strong! But if it came from the sky, that means it might be a UFO! I actually traded this one on Friday, but it's moved down a bit more today, so I thought it would be good to discuss it. But first... ## What's the Word on the Street? The market is down today to start the shortened trading week. September is seasonally a week month for the stock market, but that doesn't mean there aren't worthwhile trades. Bond yields are rising because bond investors believe that the U.S. might need to refund revenue gained from tariffs. That's because on Friday a "federal appeals court rules that most of President Donald Trump's global tariffs are illegal...". All of the tariffs are still in place, but the case is expected to be ruled on by the Supreme Court. In other news, the major piece of data releasing this week will be the August jobs report due on Friday. We'll have a chance to see how the labor market is doing. And even though the interest rate decision later this month is seemingly a done deal (expected to be a cut), further data releases pertaining to inflation and jobs will affect how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be while cutting rates. ## Marvell Technology (MRVL) A MRVL data center ### What Is It? > Marvell Technology, Inc. engages in the design, development, and sale of integrated circuits. Its products include data processing units, security solutions, automotive, coherent DSP, DCI optical modules, ethernet controllers, ethernet PHYs, ethernet switches, linear driver, PAM DSP, transimpedance amplifiers, fibre channel, HDD, SSD controller, storage accelerators, ASIC, and Marvell government solutions. It operates through the following geographical segments: United States, Singapore, Israel, India, China, and Others. The company was founded by Wei Li Dai and Pantas Sutardja in 1995 and is headquartered in Wilmington, DE. The listed name for MRVL is Marvell Technology, Inc. Common Stock. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value and what other option traders expect are the reasons MRVL could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? MRVL reported earnings last week and was punished by investors because the results didn't live up to the AI hype. Its revenue came in 58% higher from the year before quarter, but still only met expectations instead of beating. The same is true for its adjusted earnings. Companies have been spending big on AI and the stock market has been lifted by all the hype surrounding the potential of new innovation. But with all that spending comes increased scrutiny by investors. MRVL was caught in the crosshairs, but with how much it was hit in the past couple trading days, I see an opportunity to catch a rebound. ### What's the Current Price? Year to date line chart showing MRVL falling 42.62% Despite the tech rally so far this year, MRVL has clearly suffered. It's down ~17% in the past month, and ~14% down on the week. ### What’s the Fair Value? Analyst fair value ratings for MRVL I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since MRVL's most recent earnings report on 08/28/2025, it has received 11 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $92.82. 8 ratings are a Buy, 2 are a Hold, and the Morningstar rating is unknown. The lowest price target is $76, while the highest is $122. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? MRVL Calls and Puts for the October 3rd expiration Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $61 Put it says $2.21, it’s $2.61 for the equidistant Call at $66. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down. ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing MRVL's volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for MRVL (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 21.43, which is somewhat low (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) less attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. MRVL **does** offer a dividend with a yield of 0.38%. It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 1 contract of the $61 Put for the October 3rd expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with MRVL (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

I decided to try some of this new Dr Peet Pepper I’ve been hearing about, but it doesn’t seem quite right…maybe because it's a UFO?! But before I discuss that… ## What’s the Word on the Street? As of me writing this, the market is mostly up (minus the Dow, which is down/flat), because of Nvidia's earnings affirming companies continued spending on AI. With that behind us, the market's next hurdle is Friday's PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) release. That is the Fed's preferred inflation measure and might determine how aggressive they will be when it comes time to cut interest rates (with the first cut expected next month). ## Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Slide from KDP for investors regarding the plan for acquiring JDE Peet’s ### What Is It? > Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sales of non-alcoholic beverages. It operates through the following segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International. The U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment manufactures and distributes beverage concentrates, syrups, and finished beverages including the brands Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Mott’s, Snapple, A&W, 7UP, Sunkist soda, Squirt, Hawaiian Punch, Core Hydration, Bai, C4 Energy, Clamato, Evian, Yoo-Hoo, Big Red, and Vita Coco. The U.S. Coffee segment involves single serve brewers, specialty, hot and iced varieties, and ready-to-drink beverages. The International segment includes sales in Canada, Mexico, and other markets. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Burlington, MA. The listed name for KDP is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. Common Stock. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value, what other option traders expect, and its volatility are the reasons KDP could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? KDP announced this week that they are acquiring JD Peet's for $18 billion in an attempt to combine and then split into 2 separate companies. Investors are less than thrilled with the idea and have punished the stock. The plan is to boost earnings by focusing on cost synergies and geographic expansion, but there could be hurdles to overcome. Despite those potential hurdles, investors tend to overreact, which is why I see the opportunity for a quick trade. ### What’s the Current Price? Year to date line chart showing KDP falling 8.05% KDP hasn't fared particularly well this year, but by looking at the above line chart, you'll notice most of that was in the past week (~16%). ### What’s the Fair Value? Analysts fair value ratings for KDP I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since KDP’s most recent earnings report on 07/24/2025, it has received 4 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $34.50. 2 ratings are a Buy, 1 is a Hold, and the Morningstar rating is unknown. The lowest price target is $30, while the highest is $38. ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing KDP's volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for KDP (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 61.05, which is fairly high (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) more attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. KDP **does** offer a dividend with a yield of 3.10%. It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 4 contracts of the $28 Put for the October 17th expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ## Completed Trades Marvell Technology (MRVL) Might Be a UFO!The new Fantastic Four movie is releasing in theaters this week, but is it too late to audition for the team? We can be the Fantabulous Five! I know it’s Marvell the chip stock and not Marvel the superhero company. I wrote about it recently, and after closing thatUFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC with 50.50% profit Vertiv (VRT) Might Be a UFO!I was practicing some vert skateboarding when I thought I might have found a UFO! But before that… What’s the Word on the Street? The market is down again today. While waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting minutes from last month to release, the President called for a Fed governorUFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC with 54% profit Applied Materials (AMAT) Might Be a UFO!I was told that I have a mat in my belfry, so I decided to check to see if it might be a UFO! Oh wait, it’s just bats. I actually picked up AMAT a couple days ago, but it’s fallen a bit further since then so I thoughtUFO TradeDino Silvestro BTC with 50% profit ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with KDP (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.

I've gone back to Chipotle and instead of getting my normal burrito order, I decided to get it in a bowl! I'm not sure how it makes it better, but it might be a UFO! But before I discuss that... ## What's the Word on the Street? The market is up today as investors brace for Nvidia's earnings after the closing bell. We'll get to see how companies are spending on their AI efforts and if there's a slowdown. China has been reportedly dissuading domestic companies against purchasing Nvidia chips, so that might need to be factored into their results. It's a highly anticipated report because tech has really been leading the current rally and if tech's MVP starts to falter, so too might the rally. ## Chipotle (CMG) CMG promotional image about thoughtful food ### What Is It? > Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. engages in the business of developing and operating restaurants that serve a relevant menu of burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads made using fresh, high-quality ingredients. The company was founded by Steve Ells in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, CA. The listed name for CMG is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. ### Why Is It a Possible UFO? Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value and what other option traders expect are the reasons CMG could be a UFO. ### What About Recent News? > Chipotle's Q2 results showed a 4% drop in same-store sales and flat guidance for the year. > Management and analysts point to consumer pushback on value and rising competition from cheaper rivals. These worries continue to weigh on the stock. > Chipotle just announced a partnership with student athletes at Ohio State, Florida, and Georgia, giving them free meals. This move targets brand exposure and aims to connect with younger consumers. The news is fresh but has not sparked a major price reaction so far. ### What's the Current Price? Year to date line chart showing CMG falling 30.02% CMG has not had a good run so far this year. Most of that fall (17%) was in the past 3 months. But it's still down on the month at ~7% and on the week at ~1%. CMG was fluctuating a bit this morning and was down initially before beginning to rise a bit. The stock appears oversold to me, but might take time and/or a catalyst for it to recover. ### What's the Fair Value? Analysts fair value ratings for CMG I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case… Since CMG's most recent earnings report on 07/23/2025, it has received 11 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $54.64. 6 ratings are a Buy, 4 are a Hold, and the Morningstar rating is unknown. The lowest price target is $46, while the highest is $60. ### What Do Options Traders Expect? CMG Calls and Puts for the October 3rd expiration Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $40 Put it says $0.59, it’s $0.73 for the equidistant Call at $45. The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down. ### How About Volatility? Line chart showing CMG's volatility over the past year The IV rank (the purple line) for CMG (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 15.13, which is pretty low (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) less attractive. ## What's the Trade? My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value. Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls. CMG **does** **not** offer a dividend, but that’s not a dealbreaker! It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral. So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 4 contracts of the $40 Put for the October 3rd expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days. When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long. ## What About Alternative Trade Ideas? 1. If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a **put credit spread**. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards. 2. Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value. ### Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators? I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing. As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those. ### Disclosures * I currently have an open trade with CMG (as mentioned in this post). * No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved. * This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.