Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 1d

From this point comparisons to 2024 on a macro level get less and less useful

Richmond and Chesapeake had been averaging around 80% of 2024 IPEV turnout daily

Yesterday they did about 30% and 25%, and this will just get worse as more 2024 satellites are opened earlier

4

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 1d

this is by % of 24 total

all highlighted counties have satellites (though varying numbers - Henrico will only have 1 more)

yellow = no change to satellites
orange = reduced access relative to 2024 when satellites open
red = already has reduced access vs 2024

1 8

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 2d

Starting tomorrow (tomorrow’s update, today’s votes) some big counties in VA will start falling considerably behind their 2024 numbers

On this day in 2024, Richmond and Chesapeake opened their satellites but they won’t open until the 20th this year

3

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 2d

Added 35 localities to the sheet, tracking precinct EV turnout

Can click on the names of a HD or city/county to get taken to that tab now 🫠

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

5

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 3d

This is what I have set up for ~25 or so localities but I don’t have access to my computer so they’ll probably have to get added to the public spreadsheet tomorrow

7

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 4d

Texas oomfs:

We have 17(!) constitutional amendments on the ballot this year (and you might have local elections as well)

The voter registration deadline is Monday & early voting starts on the 20th

Can read about the propositions here:

www.texastribune.org/2025/09/22/t...

17 statewide propositions will appear on the November ballot. Here’s what Texas voters need to know.

A majority of the proposed constitutional amendments address tax cuts for homeowners and businesses.

www.texastribune.org

1

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 4d

meanwhile Henrico🗿

2

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 4d

let's play is it real or from a lack of satellites

3 5

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 5d

Yeah AG, sorry !

1

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 5d

I wish I had the audacity (and ignorance) to text a member of the opposing party joking about how you’d shoot the HoD speaker (over Hitler!) and then be like

Yeah, that’s not gonna be a problem, I’ll just run for statewide office now 🤠

Must be a blissful life lmao

2 7

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 5d

Here are all the HDs included

I'll update with each update of the file, and keep in mind that it's still exceptionally early in the EV window

4

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 5d

Alright, as promised

Here's the EV precinct breakdown for the 19 closest HDs in @StateNavigate's forecast

Have IPEV, VBM, and combined EV turnout as a % of 24's totals for each precinct in each HD

I'll start adding full localities soon

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

1 6

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 5d

I tried to capture the changes in IPEV location access in the bigger counties for an idea of when to expect divergences from 2024

1) poor Arlington getting done super dirty
2) Apparently Loudoun actually has an EXTRA satellite location this year vs 2024

2

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 5d

I really like The Fate of Ophelia, though some of the writing on this album is truly heinous to me

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 5d

I have a sheet with the 19 closest HoD races (per @statenavigate.org) and their EV broken down by precinct

idk how much interest there is in it but I’ll probably make it public when I’m home later today and finish formatting it

(I’ll prob start adding full localities later)

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 6d

Spending way too much time on this silly precinct breakdown of all these HoD races 🫠

4

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 6d

nothing that stands out as significant to me yet

3

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 6d

Spending way too much time on this silly precinct breakdown of all these HoD races 🫠

2 13

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 8d

Too early to say for sure still, and Dems would still benefit from improving their image a whole lot

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 8d

This is just looking at automatic voter registration, this happens when someone gets a drivers license for the most part (or updates it if they’re not already registered)

So this is a very rough heuristic for *new* young registrants

Rs gained last month via party switches

1 2

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 8d

Update on the automatic voter reg by party affiliation in PA

In August and September, Ds got more voters from AVR for the first time since AVR was introduced (9.4k vs 7.7k)

I think it's still too early to tell if it's a legitimate trend, but it's something to keep an eye on

1 1 8

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 8d

VA EV update

Data is a bit quirky - localities hit hardest by Helene skyrocketed vs 2024 bc they have an essential extra day of EV

Places like Roanoke City, Bedford, and Washington all look a lot better here than they actually are, but this distortion will fade over time

10

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 9d

What are we doing here?

Coal is dying. It’s a fading industry, and all the money and deregulation in the world will only prolong its death

Lighting money, time, (and the planet) on fire instead of actually “unleashing American energy” solely bc they think coal isn’t “woke”

1 1 10

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 11d

how is the interview with a vampire show?

looking for something that is both gay and good and I’ve heard positive things about it 🙂‍↕️

3 5

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 13d

Reposting with correct chart title, HD41:
Trump +4.5, Youngkin +12, R+0.7 in 2023

HD is at 7% of total 2024 IPEV
Harris pcts: 5.8%
Trump pcts: 8%

This HD holds Virginia Tech, which is fairly sleepy to start. Seat comes down to whether or not Ds can eventually activate students

1 6

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 13d

Montgomery has a satellite location closer to campus open for the last two Saturdays in the EV window (Oct 25, Nov 1), but otherwise it's just the main office

i can't believe how long this state's early voting period is lol

2