@dobdob365.bsky.social
Yeah, the priests will be the big drivers of opinion here. I also have Catholic parents and was raised Catholic and my parents have always been staunchly liberal. But unfortunately we're in the constantly-shrinking minority of Catholics.
January 23, 2026 at 9:58 PM
Yeah, the priests will be the big drivers of opinion here. I also have Catholic parents and was raised Catholic and my parents have always been staunchly liberal. But unfortunately we're in the constantly-shrinking minority of Catholics.
Because there will be. Stop with this stupid fucking doomer nonsense.
January 23, 2026 at 7:08 PM
Because there will be. Stop with this stupid fucking doomer nonsense.
Many single-issue-voter Catholics would have their entire worldview shattered if they knew that many of the Republican politicians and donors who publicly crusade against abortion also privately pressure their family/friends/acquaintances to get abortions.
January 23, 2026 at 5:04 PM
Many single-issue-voter Catholics would have their entire worldview shattered if they knew that many of the Republican politicians and donors who publicly crusade against abortion also privately pressure their family/friends/acquaintances to get abortions.
If the Catholics get activated for Democrats, it's over
January 23, 2026 at 4:33 PM
If the Catholics get activated for Democrats, it's over
X-rays show there are a few vertebrae in there. An especially uncommon mutation for a sitting Republican Senator to undergo.
January 23, 2026 at 4:07 PM
X-rays show there are a few vertebrae in there. An especially uncommon mutation for a sitting Republican Senator to undergo.
Yup. We have to fight voter suppression in all its forms, and this is one of them. How people who write this crap don't see that is just ridiculous.
January 23, 2026 at 3:36 PM
Yup. We have to fight voter suppression in all its forms, and this is one of them. How people who write this crap don't see that is just ridiculous.
"Depression masquerading as analysis" might be the best comment on this lol
January 23, 2026 at 3:24 PM
"Depression masquerading as analysis" might be the best comment on this lol
"(and only Democrats)"
THIS is the worst fucking part to me. I'd be a lot less mad at these people if they were also raising hell at Republican rallies and calling Trump "Genocide Don", too. Have they even tried protesting about Gaza in DC or at any Trump Towers since he became President?
THIS is the worst fucking part to me. I'd be a lot less mad at these people if they were also raising hell at Republican rallies and calling Trump "Genocide Don", too. Have they even tried protesting about Gaza in DC or at any Trump Towers since he became President?
January 22, 2026 at 11:49 PM
"(and only Democrats)"
THIS is the worst fucking part to me. I'd be a lot less mad at these people if they were also raising hell at Republican rallies and calling Trump "Genocide Don", too. Have they even tried protesting about Gaza in DC or at any Trump Towers since he became President?
THIS is the worst fucking part to me. I'd be a lot less mad at these people if they were also raising hell at Republican rallies and calling Trump "Genocide Don", too. Have they even tried protesting about Gaza in DC or at any Trump Towers since he became President?
Turns out public opinion shifts really fucking fast when the government sends out an army to terrorize an entire city
Another piece of evidence is "abolish ICE" having mid-40s support when two months ago it was in the low 20s
cc: chuck schumer and all Dems who refuse to talk about ICE at all
Another piece of evidence is "abolish ICE" having mid-40s support when two months ago it was in the low 20s
cc: chuck schumer and all Dems who refuse to talk about ICE at all
January 22, 2026 at 8:26 PM
Turns out public opinion shifts really fucking fast when the government sends out an army to terrorize an entire city
Another piece of evidence is "abolish ICE" having mid-40s support when two months ago it was in the low 20s
cc: chuck schumer and all Dems who refuse to talk about ICE at all
Another piece of evidence is "abolish ICE" having mid-40s support when two months ago it was in the low 20s
cc: chuck schumer and all Dems who refuse to talk about ICE at all
The silver lining is that it gives us more time for that D+ number to grow
January 22, 2026 at 4:58 PM
The silver lining is that it gives us more time for that D+ number to grow
And this is RV, so there's no weighting whatsoever for enthusiasm or who's likely to vote.
I suspect if they put out an LV poll with this sample and response, it would look like the others we've seen lately (D+13)
I suspect if they put out an LV poll with this sample and response, it would look like the others we've seen lately (D+13)
January 22, 2026 at 4:57 PM
And this is RV, so there's no weighting whatsoever for enthusiasm or who's likely to vote.
I suspect if they put out an LV poll with this sample and response, it would look like the others we've seen lately (D+13)
I suspect if they put out an LV poll with this sample and response, it would look like the others we've seen lately (D+13)
Exactly. They're expecting to lose this November, and again in 2028.
It's just another iteration of Republican smash-and-grab tactics that they did under Reagan, both Bushes, and Trump 1. It's just a lot more extreme now since extremist white nationalists make up most of the Cabinet.
It's just another iteration of Republican smash-and-grab tactics that they did under Reagan, both Bushes, and Trump 1. It's just a lot more extreme now since extremist white nationalists make up most of the Cabinet.
January 22, 2026 at 4:42 PM
Exactly. They're expecting to lose this November, and again in 2028.
It's just another iteration of Republican smash-and-grab tactics that they did under Reagan, both Bushes, and Trump 1. It's just a lot more extreme now since extremist white nationalists make up most of the Cabinet.
It's just another iteration of Republican smash-and-grab tactics that they did under Reagan, both Bushes, and Trump 1. It's just a lot more extreme now since extremist white nationalists make up most of the Cabinet.
*October 2024, to be clear
January 22, 2026 at 4:36 PM
*October 2024, to be clear
And it's not like we didn't tell them back in October that this is *exactly how this was going to turn out if Trump won*
It didn't exactly require Nostradamus to foresee this outcome. Just required not having their heads shoved up their asses.
It didn't exactly require Nostradamus to foresee this outcome. Just required not having their heads shoved up their asses.
January 22, 2026 at 4:35 PM
And it's not like we didn't tell them back in October that this is *exactly how this was going to turn out if Trump won*
It didn't exactly require Nostradamus to foresee this outcome. Just required not having their heads shoved up their asses.
It didn't exactly require Nostradamus to foresee this outcome. Just required not having their heads shoved up their asses.
"Adjust the gamma slider until you can see the necrosis on his cheekbones"
January 22, 2026 at 4:32 PM
"Adjust the gamma slider until you can see the necrosis on his cheekbones"
Yeah that's a good point. And I honestly wouldn't fault NYT for just using the most complete set of voter reg/party ID available, which would be the 2024 electorate
January 22, 2026 at 4:19 PM
Yeah that's a good point. And I honestly wouldn't fault NYT for just using the most complete set of voter reg/party ID available, which would be the 2024 electorate
Oh yeah duh I'm an idiot
I should've said they must be using some really old RV numbers then, that don't account for the shifts in registration numbers we've seen since the 2024 election. Or the sample was just heavily R
I should've said they must be using some really old RV numbers then, that don't account for the shifts in registration numbers we've seen since the 2024 election. Or the sample was just heavily R
January 22, 2026 at 4:09 PM
Oh yeah duh I'm an idiot
I should've said they must be using some really old RV numbers then, that don't account for the shifts in registration numbers we've seen since the 2024 election. Or the sample was just heavily R
I should've said they must be using some really old RV numbers then, that don't account for the shifts in registration numbers we've seen since the 2024 election. Or the sample was just heavily R
So it's D+15 among indies, Dems have reversed GOP's registration gains from '24 nationally and then some, and that all averages out to... D+5???
What electorate are they weighting for? Oklahoma 2024?
Simpler answer is I think they're herding to the other D+5 topline releases
What electorate are they weighting for? Oklahoma 2024?
Simpler answer is I think they're herding to the other D+5 topline releases
January 22, 2026 at 3:58 PM
So it's D+15 among indies, Dems have reversed GOP's registration gains from '24 nationally and then some, and that all averages out to... D+5???
What electorate are they weighting for? Oklahoma 2024?
Simpler answer is I think they're herding to the other D+5 topline releases
What electorate are they weighting for? Oklahoma 2024?
Simpler answer is I think they're herding to the other D+5 topline releases
"There's fewer Mexicans and Somalis, that's good enough for me!" -person in North Dakota who's never seen a Latino or African person in their life
January 22, 2026 at 3:47 PM
"There's fewer Mexicans and Somalis, that's good enough for me!" -person in North Dakota who's never seen a Latino or African person in their life
NYT may not have had time, but Quinnipiac had a brief polling period where they asked a couple questions on it, and "Do you support taking Greenland by force?" polled 86-9 (disapprove-approve)
"Do you support the US purchasing Greenland?" was about 20 pts underwater (I forget the exact numbers)
"Do you support the US purchasing Greenland?" was about 20 pts underwater (I forget the exact numbers)
January 22, 2026 at 3:21 PM
NYT may not have had time, but Quinnipiac had a brief polling period where they asked a couple questions on it, and "Do you support taking Greenland by force?" polled 86-9 (disapprove-approve)
"Do you support the US purchasing Greenland?" was about 20 pts underwater (I forget the exact numbers)
"Do you support the US purchasing Greenland?" was about 20 pts underwater (I forget the exact numbers)
The "They should all be out on the front lines getting arrested!!" people never think anything through. If all the Democratic congresspeople get arrested, the vacancies will just give the GOP a supermajority in both chambers!
January 21, 2026 at 11:45 PM
The "They should all be out on the front lines getting arrested!!" people never think anything through. If all the Democratic congresspeople get arrested, the vacancies will just give the GOP a supermajority in both chambers!
Which I think explains why the anti-incumbent effect in the US in 2024 wasn't as strong as it was in other countries. The 6-ish point swing in Presidential popular vote was actually pretty small comparatively, and that says nothing about the fact that House Dems *gained a seat*
January 21, 2026 at 9:29 PM
Which I think explains why the anti-incumbent effect in the US in 2024 wasn't as strong as it was in other countries. The 6-ish point swing in Presidential popular vote was actually pretty small comparatively, and that says nothing about the fact that House Dems *gained a seat*
Actually Behn's overperformance was *12.6 points* if you're comparing to the 2024 House race and not Trump's margin in the district!
January 21, 2026 at 8:18 PM
Actually Behn's overperformance was *12.6 points* if you're comparing to the 2024 House race and not Trump's margin in the district!
And with room to grow. I think Behn's 9.5-pt overperformance in TN-07, with midterm-level turnout, was a good baseline for what the midterms would look like. And that was pre-Minneapolis and pre-Greenland. And in a relatively inelastic (read: white rural-heavy, Southern) district.
January 21, 2026 at 8:15 PM
And with room to grow. I think Behn's 9.5-pt overperformance in TN-07, with midterm-level turnout, was a good baseline for what the midterms would look like. And that was pre-Minneapolis and pre-Greenland. And in a relatively inelastic (read: white rural-heavy, Southern) district.