Dr David Preece
@doctorpreece.bsky.social
Head of Geography Teacher Development at Teach First, experienced geographer, teacher, educator and coach. Keen to explore how we can develop and share better - all views my own!
https://drpreece.home.blog/ and https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-preece/
https://drpreece.home.blog/ and https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-preece/
Anything that used to use it as a proxy (e.g. as a test for quality of written communications, English language ability) is done for, too.
December 22, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Anything that used to use it as a proxy (e.g. as a test for quality of written communications, English language ability) is done for, too.
Would be happy to connect you with the Science team at Teach First, if you would like to? We have quite a lot of Science trainees...
December 22, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Would be happy to connect you with the Science team at Teach First, if you would like to? We have quite a lot of Science trainees...
Again, in the abstract, I'd agree with you.
In reality, I think it tends to take a while of students suffering inequity before people get grumpy enough to fix it. I'm not sure I'd write off so many UCAS cycles!
In reality, I think it tends to take a while of students suffering inequity before people get grumpy enough to fix it. I'm not sure I'd write off so many UCAS cycles!
December 12, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Again, in the abstract, I'd agree with you.
In reality, I think it tends to take a while of students suffering inequity before people get grumpy enough to fix it. I'm not sure I'd write off so many UCAS cycles!
In reality, I think it tends to take a while of students suffering inequity before people get grumpy enough to fix it. I'm not sure I'd write off so many UCAS cycles!
Do you have the same analysis as the (very long back) original blog post that kicked this off for all years?
Be interesting to see if there's a shift and trend for subjects over time?
Be interesting to see if there's a shift and trend for subjects over time?
December 11, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Do you have the same analysis as the (very long back) original blog post that kicked this off for all years?
Be interesting to see if there's a shift and trend for subjects over time?
Be interesting to see if there's a shift and trend for subjects over time?
I'd be very interested if there's any statistical evidence (@fftedudatalab.bsky.social might know!) as to the reliability of predicted grades pre- and post- AS qualifications being offered...
December 11, 2025 at 3:59 PM
I'd be very interested if there's any statistical evidence (@fftedudatalab.bsky.social might know!) as to the reliability of predicted grades pre- and post- AS qualifications being offered...
I don't know enough about post-qualification admission to see how you'd overcome a whole heap of the warm up, application and support mechanisms involved in the whole picture of a UCAS cycle - even though I do think it would be fairer for the predicted grade component of that.
December 11, 2025 at 3:59 PM
I don't know enough about post-qualification admission to see how you'd overcome a whole heap of the warm up, application and support mechanisms involved in the whole picture of a UCAS cycle - even though I do think it would be fairer for the predicted grade component of that.
What are the impacts if you don't have a long lead time, or the ability to visit open days, or make decisions and access programmes?
What are the chances of being able to put together an application (and PS) at short notice with minimal guidance between Jul-Aug for a post-QA? Who has support?
What are the chances of being able to put together an application (and PS) at short notice with minimal guidance between Jul-Aug for a post-QA? Who has support?
December 11, 2025 at 3:59 PM
What are the impacts if you don't have a long lead time, or the ability to visit open days, or make decisions and access programmes?
What are the chances of being able to put together an application (and PS) at short notice with minimal guidance between Jul-Aug for a post-QA? Who has support?
What are the chances of being able to put together an application (and PS) at short notice with minimal guidance between Jul-Aug for a post-QA? Who has support?
I appreciate that 'predicted grades' is a key part of inequity around pre/post qual admissions, but I don't think it's the only one.
And fixing it might expose a bunch of much greater inequities that can't be so easily mended!
And fixing it might expose a bunch of much greater inequities that can't be so easily mended!
December 11, 2025 at 3:50 PM
I appreciate that 'predicted grades' is a key part of inequity around pre/post qual admissions, but I don't think it's the only one.
And fixing it might expose a bunch of much greater inequities that can't be so easily mended!
And fixing it might expose a bunch of much greater inequities that can't be so easily mended!
Within the framework of "the accuracy of the predicted grades", you're both absolutely right.
Within the framework of "providing support to students in an effective and timely manner"? I'm not so sure. I think the availability and timing of advice and advisors/preparation is not equal.
Within the framework of "providing support to students in an effective and timely manner"? I'm not so sure. I think the availability and timing of advice and advisors/preparation is not equal.
December 11, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Within the framework of "the accuracy of the predicted grades", you're both absolutely right.
Within the framework of "providing support to students in an effective and timely manner"? I'm not so sure. I think the availability and timing of advice and advisors/preparation is not equal.
Within the framework of "providing support to students in an effective and timely manner"? I'm not so sure. I think the availability and timing of advice and advisors/preparation is not equal.
And to me, that's pretty indicative.
If this was something that was desperately desired by students, they'd be doing it in large numbers already.
If schools, unis or people thought it was good advice, they'd be doing it already, within the framework of what we've got.
If this was something that was desperately desired by students, they'd be doing it in large numbers already.
If schools, unis or people thought it was good advice, they'd be doing it already, within the framework of what we've got.
December 11, 2025 at 2:34 PM
And to me, that's pretty indicative.
If this was something that was desperately desired by students, they'd be doing it in large numbers already.
If schools, unis or people thought it was good advice, they'd be doing it already, within the framework of what we've got.
If this was something that was desperately desired by students, they'd be doing it in large numbers already.
If schools, unis or people thought it was good advice, they'd be doing it already, within the framework of what we've got.
The reality is that right now, this is entirely possible for students to do.
They can get on UCAS Apply, complete a form, and put all their details in the system. They can put in offers, or not, and then decline any - this puts them in to the marketplace for August post-results.
Very few do.
They can get on UCAS Apply, complete a form, and put all their details in the system. They can put in offers, or not, and then decline any - this puts them in to the marketplace for August post-results.
Very few do.
December 11, 2025 at 2:34 PM
The reality is that right now, this is entirely possible for students to do.
They can get on UCAS Apply, complete a form, and put all their details in the system. They can put in offers, or not, and then decline any - this puts them in to the marketplace for August post-results.
Very few do.
They can get on UCAS Apply, complete a form, and put all their details in the system. They can put in offers, or not, and then decline any - this puts them in to the marketplace for August post-results.
Very few do.
And, honestly? The super-tight window and timescale would exacerbate existing pressures on students to Make A Decision.
It might be fairer from an "accuracy of predicted grades" perspective, but I don't think it would be better for students/parents/teachers/schools in a wellbeing/workload sense.
It might be fairer from an "accuracy of predicted grades" perspective, but I don't think it would be better for students/parents/teachers/schools in a wellbeing/workload sense.
December 11, 2025 at 2:32 PM
And, honestly? The super-tight window and timescale would exacerbate existing pressures on students to Make A Decision.
It might be fairer from an "accuracy of predicted grades" perspective, but I don't think it would be better for students/parents/teachers/schools in a wellbeing/workload sense.
It might be fairer from an "accuracy of predicted grades" perspective, but I don't think it would be better for students/parents/teachers/schools in a wellbeing/workload sense.
I appreciate the data-driven reasons why post-qual offers make sense, but I can't help but think it'd widen the inequality gaps and make things like Oxbridge/Med/Dentistry etc. even more inaccessible than they currently are.
December 11, 2025 at 2:31 PM
I appreciate the data-driven reasons why post-qual offers make sense, but I can't help but think it'd widen the inequality gaps and make things like Oxbridge/Med/Dentistry etc. even more inaccessible than they currently are.
Universities and exam boards can accelerate their processes (not easily, but do-able) - but how do we ensure that we have as level a playing field as possible in that August window where results are live, but places are not?
Some schools would mandate HoD/teacher attendance? Parents paying coaches?
Some schools would mandate HoD/teacher attendance? Parents paying coaches?
December 11, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Universities and exam boards can accelerate their processes (not easily, but do-able) - but how do we ensure that we have as level a playing field as possible in that August window where results are live, but places are not?
Some schools would mandate HoD/teacher attendance? Parents paying coaches?
Some schools would mandate HoD/teacher attendance? Parents paying coaches?
There are significant practical issues, but my greatest worry is inequity.
To do this well, you need great teachers, great advisors and lots of support to make a high-stakes, low-timescale decision (e.g. without going to open days or seeing places, as we currently would for clearing).
To do this well, you need great teachers, great advisors and lots of support to make a high-stakes, low-timescale decision (e.g. without going to open days or seeing places, as we currently would for clearing).
December 11, 2025 at 2:31 PM
There are significant practical issues, but my greatest worry is inequity.
To do this well, you need great teachers, great advisors and lots of support to make a high-stakes, low-timescale decision (e.g. without going to open days or seeing places, as we currently would for clearing).
To do this well, you need great teachers, great advisors and lots of support to make a high-stakes, low-timescale decision (e.g. without going to open days or seeing places, as we currently would for clearing).
I have a few contacts in the admissions world, and the risks and stakes for their side of the offer process is super-complex, too!
I think it's a really tangled web of chaos to unpick, but I'm not sure we have the political and structural will to rewrite the whole narrative in entirety!
I think it's a really tangled web of chaos to unpick, but I'm not sure we have the political and structural will to rewrite the whole narrative in entirety!
December 11, 2025 at 1:03 PM
I have a few contacts in the admissions world, and the risks and stakes for their side of the offer process is super-complex, too!
I think it's a really tangled web of chaos to unpick, but I'm not sure we have the political and structural will to rewrite the whole narrative in entirety!
I think it's a really tangled web of chaos to unpick, but I'm not sure we have the political and structural will to rewrite the whole narrative in entirety!
I think this is where I worry a little; that adjustment/clearing cycle is where we need great advisors and support from schools - and yet it's amidst August holidays. Some people and schools will have lots of support; others far less - and that widens decision-inequity at that point, IMHO!
December 11, 2025 at 1:02 PM
I think this is where I worry a little; that adjustment/clearing cycle is where we need great advisors and support from schools - and yet it's amidst August holidays. Some people and schools will have lots of support; others far less - and that widens decision-inequity at that point, IMHO!
... or we bring back AS exams (but disallow multiple takes) and your AS results are what are submitted to university in a pre-qual application round. Schools could make a mitigation statement (if they felt there were significant circumstances), but no "predictions" needed?
December 11, 2025 at 10:59 AM
... or we bring back AS exams (but disallow multiple takes) and your AS results are what are submitted to university in a pre-qual application round. Schools could make a mitigation statement (if they felt there were significant circumstances), but no "predictions" needed?
As ever, a "tinkering" approach doesn't quite serve the structures - but I'm not sure that the system would be ready for a much more significant delay to the process in order to bring an effective and equitable system in to play! (e.g. no one starts uni until Jan of the following year).
December 11, 2025 at 10:57 AM
As ever, a "tinkering" approach doesn't quite serve the structures - but I'm not sure that the system would be ready for a much more significant delay to the process in order to bring an effective and equitable system in to play! (e.g. no one starts uni until Jan of the following year).
In principle, I agree with you.
In practice, I fear the alternative option of post-qualification assessment probably unearths a whole heap more structural inequities (if not worse ones) that are hyper-exaggerated by the compressed timescales and availability of guidance for decision making...
In practice, I fear the alternative option of post-qualification assessment probably unearths a whole heap more structural inequities (if not worse ones) that are hyper-exaggerated by the compressed timescales and availability of guidance for decision making...
December 11, 2025 at 10:57 AM
In principle, I agree with you.
In practice, I fear the alternative option of post-qualification assessment probably unearths a whole heap more structural inequities (if not worse ones) that are hyper-exaggerated by the compressed timescales and availability of guidance for decision making...
In practice, I fear the alternative option of post-qualification assessment probably unearths a whole heap more structural inequities (if not worse ones) that are hyper-exaggerated by the compressed timescales and availability of guidance for decision making...
I recognise the flaws and challenges of predicted grades, but I think that our whole functional assessment structures are far less statistically robust at an individual level than we perhaps think they are...
December 11, 2025 at 8:43 AM
I recognise the flaws and challenges of predicted grades, but I think that our whole functional assessment structures are far less statistically robust at an individual level than we perhaps think they are...
We also have confidence intervals in marking - tolerances and variability. I've known remarks take a student from a B to an A* because the original marker missed some pages.
We have confidence intervals in variable grade boundaries - last year's scores would have got them A, now it's a B.
We have confidence intervals in variable grade boundaries - last year's scores would have got them A, now it's a B.
December 11, 2025 at 8:43 AM
We also have confidence intervals in marking - tolerances and variability. I've known remarks take a student from a B to an A* because the original marker missed some pages.
We have confidence intervals in variable grade boundaries - last year's scores would have got them A, now it's a B.
We have confidence intervals in variable grade boundaries - last year's scores would have got them A, now it's a B.