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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · Aug 9

We're hiring here at Illinois! I'm not on the committee but am happy to answer questions about the position, department, and life in Champaign-Urbana

Avital Livny @avitallivny.bsky.social · Aug 8

Y'all it's official. WE ARE HIRING!

Here is the ad with all the details: illinois.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...

And here's the skinny: Political behavior, broadly defined @ the assistant level. Comparative behavior/psych + REP especially encouraged. Come join a great department at a great institution!

Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

We're grateful to so many colleagues for their feedback, as well as to the anonymous reviewers and the stellar editorial team at IS.

Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

For policymakers, our findings emphasize the importance of institutional quality. The future of effective diplomacy between Washington and Beijing or Delhi and Islamabad may hinge whether leaders can implement institutional structures that minimize noise.

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

They also have key implications for the study of war more generally, as the noisiness of senders’ signals can increase the odds of incomplete information and miscalculation for receivers.

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

Our findings illuminate a new and underappreciated way that interstate communication breaks down: when senders introduce transmission noise via institutional pathologies.

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

By contrast, India’s reformed institutions minimized noise during negotiations that followed the 1965 Indo-Pakistani War, setting conditions for mutual understanding at the Tashkent summit.

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

Before the 1962 Sino-Indian War, India’s closed institutions produced ample transmission noise, creating misunderstanding during negotiations with China.

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

After measuring India’s institutional structure, we apply process tracing to a rich set of primary source documents, drawn from six countries, which allow us to reconstruct how a given signal transited the communication channel.

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

To illustrate, we compare signal transmission processes from a single sender — India — before and after major institutional reforms in the mid-1960s. This provides analytic leverage to assess how institutions affect transmission noise, all else equal.

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

Different kinds of bureaucratic institutions are associated with different levels of transmission noise. Open institutions, which regularly connect leaders and bureaucrats, reduce noise. Closed institutions, which impede leader-bureaucrat information flow, increase noise.

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

States' bureaucratic institutions shape the noisiness of interstate communication. Drawing on information theory, we suggest that the division of labor within states — between bureaucrats and leaders — creates transmission noise, corrupting signals before they reach receivers.

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

Yet there are many cases of communication failure in which senders were perceived as sincere and receivers processed signals effectively. Why did communication still fail in these instances? In short, because communication BETWEEN states is a function of institutions WITHIN them.

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

Another is about misperception — when states send signals, they often can't account for biases in how receivers process information or make decisions. books.google.com/books?hl=en&...

Perception and Misperception in International Politics

Since its original publication in 1976, Perception and Misperception in International Politics has become a landmark book in its field, hailed by the New York Times as "the seminal statement of princi...

books.google.com

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

We generally think communication fails for two reasons. One is about insincerity — when states send signals, they often misrepresent their bargaining position to get the best deal, so receivers of these signals doubt whether the sender is being truthful. academic.oup.com/isq/article-...

The Personal Touch: Leaders’ Impressions, Costly Signaling, and Assessments of Sincerity in International Affairs1

Abstract. What counts as evidence that the other side is sincere? Within mainstream international relations literature, scholars have focused on costly sig

academic.oup.com

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

Historically, communication failures have often pushed states down the road to conflict, perhaps most famously World War I and the Korean War www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...

China Crosses the Yalu

China Crosses the Yalu by Allen S. Whiting was published on November 25, 2021 by Stanford University Press.

www.degruyterbrill.com

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · May 14

When does communication fail in international politics? In a new @intsecurity.bsky.social piece, Tyler Jost and I present some fresh theory and evidence on an enduring challenge for states — getting others to understand what they are trying to say

International Security @intsecurity.bsky.social · May 14

6) “Lost in Transmission: Bureaucracy, Noise, and Communication in International Politics,” by @doncasler.bsky.social and Tyler Jost.
doi.org/10.1162/isec...

This article is Open Access.

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Reposted by Don Casler

International Security @intsecurity.bsky.social · May 14

1) The new Spring 2025 issue is online!

Read articles by John Mearsheimer, @stephenwalt.bsky.social , Zachary Burdette, Nilay Saiya and Stuti Manchanda, and @doncasler.bsky.social and Tyler Jost

direct.mit.edu/isec/issue/4...

Volume 49 Issue 4 | International Security | MIT Press

direct.mit.edu

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Reposted by Don Casler

Amanda Pearson @pearson-edits.bsky.social · May 9

Spring 2025 issue preview!

J. Mearsheimer < war & international politics> @stephenwalt.bsky.social
Zach Burdette
N. Saiya & S. Manchanda
@doncasler.bsky.social & T. Jost

@intsecurity.bsky.social @mitpress.bsky.social

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Reposted by Don Casler

Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · Mar 17

Drezner's World has never published anything not written by the hard-working staff. Until now. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/guest-post...

GUEST POST: We Are Professors at Columbia. Here is How We Would Respond.

Five Columbia University political scientists offer their unofficial response to the Trump administration's demands on their university.

danieldrezner.substack.com

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · Mar 4

*taps sign*

Ricky Clark @rickyclark.bsky.social · Nov 26

During Trump's first term, @doncasler.bsky.social and I found American consumers were sensitive to price increases from tariffs (whether on China or Canada). Given the salience of inflation discourse today, our findings suggest Trump's new tariffs may face headwinds as consumer costs come to bear.

Trade Rage: Audience Costs and International Trade - Don Casler, Richard Clark, 2021

Politicians frequently issue public threats to manipulate tariffs but only sometimes follow through. This behavior theoretically ought to generate audience cost...

journals.sagepub.com

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Reposted by Don Casler

Josh Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · Feb 20

Happy to review Mearsheimer and Rosato's new book, a spirited takedown of political psychology that claims that political psychologists don’t study how individuals comprehend the world around them, which is rather like arguing that botanists don’t study plants

www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

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Reposted by Don Casler

Ricky Clark @rickyclark.bsky.social · Feb 11

My book, Cooperative Complexity: The Next Level of Global Economic Governance, is out today! You can order it from @cambridgeuppolisci.bsky.social for 20% off with the discount code CLARK24. The purchase link and a short thread on the book follow 🧵

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Reposted by Don Casler

Ricky Clark @rickyclark.bsky.social · Nov 26

During Trump's first term, @doncasler.bsky.social and I found American consumers were sensitive to price increases from tariffs (whether on China or Canada). Given the salience of inflation discourse today, our findings suggest Trump's new tariffs may face headwinds as consumer costs come to bear.

Trade Rage: Audience Costs and International Trade - Don Casler, Richard Clark, 2021

Politicians frequently issue public threats to manipulate tariffs but only sometimes follow through. This behavior theoretically ought to generate audience cost...

journals.sagepub.com

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · Oct 2

I was very fortunate to contribute a review to the H-Diplo | RJISSF roundtable on Melvyn Leffler's new history of the Iraq War issforum.org/ISSF/PDF/RJI...

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Don Casler @doncasler.bsky.social · Aug 23

If Prigozhin really is dead, I have to applaud the simulation writers for their impeccable timing---I'm teaching about two-level games tomorrow! www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08...

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