Rachel Leah Childers
@donskerclass.bsky.social
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February 2, 2026 at 4:28 PM
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👀
This doesn't solve the issue of the dearth of people here posting papers, and I already (unwisely) drink straight from the arXiv firehose every morning, but it does look like a major interface improvement.
Maybe it will incentivize posting more about random papers I read to enrich the ecosystem.
This doesn't solve the issue of the dearth of people here posting papers, and I already (unwisely) drink straight from the arXiv firehose every morning, but it does look like a major interface improvement.
Maybe it will incentivize posting more about random papers I read to enrich the ecosystem.
January 30, 2026 at 7:17 AM
👀
This doesn't solve the issue of the dearth of people here posting papers, and I already (unwisely) drink straight from the arXiv firehose every morning, but it does look like a major interface improvement.
Maybe it will incentivize posting more about random papers I read to enrich the ecosystem.
This doesn't solve the issue of the dearth of people here posting papers, and I already (unwisely) drink straight from the arXiv firehose every morning, but it does look like a major interface improvement.
Maybe it will incentivize posting more about random papers I read to enrich the ecosystem.
I do miss the volume of new paper threads and the policy discussion. Though currently you can tell from the scope of debate that many people have left X in a way which is strongly selected on politics.
I also miss jobs day Twitter, but that's now often being solved by getting rid of jobs day 😬.
I also miss jobs day Twitter, but that's now often being solved by getting rid of jobs day 😬.
January 29, 2026 at 12:18 PM
I do miss the volume of new paper threads and the policy discussion. Though currently you can tell from the scope of debate that many people have left X in a way which is strongly selected on politics.
I also miss jobs day Twitter, but that's now often being solved by getting rid of jobs day 😬.
I also miss jobs day Twitter, but that's now often being solved by getting rid of jobs day 😬.
Peeking in on the old site, prominent macroecons are much more active there; they love multi-paragraph posts. Also AI-focused econs, which is less of a loss. Stats is still strong here.
But I was never really on Bsky for econ. What are you even doing on the mostly-Katie Tightpussy-by-volume site?
But I was never really on Bsky for econ. What are you even doing on the mostly-Katie Tightpussy-by-volume site?
January 29, 2026 at 9:45 AM
Peeking in on the old site, prominent macroecons are much more active there; they love multi-paragraph posts. Also AI-focused econs, which is less of a loss. Stats is still strong here.
But I was never really on Bsky for econ. What are you even doing on the mostly-Katie Tightpussy-by-volume site?
But I was never really on Bsky for econ. What are you even doing on the mostly-Katie Tightpussy-by-volume site?
Yeah, it clearly draws on the international academic work, but a heavy majority of the text is an argument that Trump (as of 2018) is dangerous to democracy, targeted at an audience looking for partisan red meat. I have nothing against that kind of book being written, I just don't get much from it.
January 28, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Yeah, it clearly draws on the international academic work, but a heavy majority of the text is an argument that Trump (as of 2018) is dangerous to democracy, targeted at an audience looking for partisan red meat. I have nothing against that kind of book being written, I just don't get much from it.
I might take a look at these when I have digested the previous crop of sources, though per the original question I am more in the mood to read histories of places where things got better and how than explanations of how things have gotten worse, which are more abundant and more depressing.
January 28, 2026 at 11:51 AM
I might take a look at these when I have digested the previous crop of sources, though per the original question I am more in the mood to read histories of places where things got better and how than explanations of how things have gotten worse, which are more abundant and more depressing.
I listened to "How Democracies Die" while cooking, working out, and doing chores over the past few days and thought it was fine, though I was looking for something less contemporary-US focused.
Currently listening: Caroline Elkins "Legacy of Violence", which is promising but will take a bit longer.
Currently listening: Caroline Elkins "Legacy of Violence", which is promising but will take a bit longer.
Rachel Childers's review of How Democracies Die
3/5: While I tend to avoid books about contemporary politics, I picked this one up with the assurance of some political scientists who attested that the book is based on a foundation in solid research...
www.goodreads.com
January 28, 2026 at 10:32 AM
I listened to "How Democracies Die" while cooking, working out, and doing chores over the past few days and thought it was fine, though I was looking for something less contemporary-US focused.
Currently listening: Caroline Elkins "Legacy of Violence", which is promising but will take a bit longer.
Currently listening: Caroline Elkins "Legacy of Violence", which is promising but will take a bit longer.
OK, from ARPS to get the lay of the land I liked doi.org/10.1146/annu... as a survey of "big panel regression with Polity-score as Y and some random X variable" papers, & Grillo et al gave a sense of the kind of little toy game theory models people use that can sometimes give surprising predictions.
Theories of Democratic Backsliding
We review recent contributions to the modeling of democratic backsliding. We organize these theories according to (a) the source of constraints on the executive (vertical or horizontal restrainers) an...
doi.org
January 28, 2026 at 10:32 AM
OK, from ARPS to get the lay of the land I liked doi.org/10.1146/annu... as a survey of "big panel regression with Polity-score as Y and some random X variable" papers, & Grillo et al gave a sense of the kind of little toy game theory models people use that can sometimes give surprising predictions.
I mean, my bread is buttered on the "precisely answered questions" side, since my day job for a long time was helping people tweak identification schemes and get standard errors right. I just like both and think they are complements...
January 25, 2026 at 2:55 PM
I mean, my bread is buttered on the "precisely answered questions" side, since my day job for a long time was helping people tweak identification schemes and get standard errors right. I just like both and think they are complements...
I know the related Annual Review of Econ quite well. Quality is mixed but the better articles of that kind are very good intros for someone jumping into an area, like me in this setting.
January 25, 2026 at 2:51 PM
I know the related Annual Review of Econ quite well. Quality is mixed but the better articles of that kind are very good intros for someone jumping into an area, like me in this setting.
It's quite good on summarizing lots of causal studies that are individually (mostly) pretty well done! When it tries to assemble them into a broader theory of war, it ends up with a kind of incoherent hodgepodge that does not seem all that believable or precise. A failure mode shared by modern econ!
January 25, 2026 at 2:47 PM
It's quite good on summarizing lots of causal studies that are individually (mostly) pretty well done! When it tries to assemble them into a broader theory of war, it ends up with a kind of incoherent hodgepodge that does not seem all that believable or precise. A failure mode shared by modern econ!
I was hoping this prompt would catch your attention!
I haven't read any of it, but will take a look. I've been ignorant of polisci except for polmeth work that overlaps with econometrics for many years, which is why I wanted recommendations by folks who know what work on the topic is serious.
I haven't read any of it, but will take a look. I've been ignorant of polisci except for polmeth work that overlaps with econometrics for many years, which is why I wanted recommendations by folks who know what work on the topic is serious.
January 25, 2026 at 2:35 PM
I was hoping this prompt would catch your attention!
I haven't read any of it, but will take a look. I've been ignorant of polisci except for polmeth work that overlaps with econometrics for many years, which is why I wanted recommendations by folks who know what work on the topic is serious.
I haven't read any of it, but will take a look. I've been ignorant of polisci except for polmeth work that overlaps with econometrics for many years, which is why I wanted recommendations by folks who know what work on the topic is serious.
I meant at some point to collect my thoughts in what would have been a very negative review of Blattman's "Why We Fight" which, in reviewing a generation of causal research on war, added up to what seems like a still inadequate understanding, but I'm out of the area and no longer motivated to argue.
January 25, 2026 at 2:29 PM
I meant at some point to collect my thoughts in what would have been a very negative review of Blattman's "Why We Fight" which, in reviewing a generation of causal research on war, added up to what seems like a still inadequate understanding, but I'm out of the area and no longer motivated to argue.
"Credible" causal approaches (eg below by the co-PI on that project) seemed to offer a real advance in measuring concrete mechanisms, but studying a particular conflict in depth, I found them inadequate for understanding what is ultimately an equilibrium phenomenon with nontrivial dynamics.
Propaganda and Conflict: Evidence from the Rwandan Genocide *
Abstract. This article investigates the role of mass media in times of conflict and state-sponsored mass violence against civilians. We use a unique villag
doi.org
January 25, 2026 at 2:29 PM
"Credible" causal approaches (eg below by the co-PI on that project) seemed to offer a real advance in measuring concrete mechanisms, but studying a particular conflict in depth, I found them inadequate for understanding what is ultimately an equilibrium phenomenon with nontrivial dynamics.
Basically I didn't think the tools were up to the job. I came from SE Asian studies where regionalists offered narrative that seemed to naïvely accept identity-based stories that don't explain much. Quantitative work at the time was less monocausal, but used a lot of kitchen sink regressions.
January 25, 2026 at 2:29 PM
Basically I didn't think the tools were up to the job. I came from SE Asian studies where regionalists offered narrative that seemed to naïvely accept identity-based stories that don't explain much. Quantitative work at the time was less monocausal, but used a lot of kitchen sink regressions.
Thanks. My first RA job was for Nancy Qian (who has coauthored with the current CEA chair!) on a project on civil conflict in East Timor that left me deeply disillusioned with the Econ lit on civil war and led me to shift my research focus to theory, so I will return with interest but trepidation.
January 25, 2026 at 1:23 PM
Thanks. My first RA job was for Nancy Qian (who has coauthored with the current CEA chair!) on a project on civil conflict in East Timor that left me deeply disillusioned with the Econ lit on civil war and led me to shift my research focus to theory, so I will return with interest but trepidation.
Thanks. Should I start with "The Logic of Violence in Civil War", or is there another particular text you would recommend?
January 25, 2026 at 12:38 PM
Thanks. Should I start with "The Logic of Violence in Civil War", or is there another particular text you would recommend?
Note, "some of" are the key words in that sentence, and respect for general competence absolutely does not extend to respect for the public output done under the auspices of the current CEA (eg, below). The hope is only that behind the scenes someone is preventing it from being even worse.
The One Big Beautiful Chart Book: How the OBBB Reduces Deficits and Debt
One-Big-Beautiful-Chart-Book-How-the-OBBB-Reduces-Deficits-and-DebtDownload
www.whitehouse.gov
January 25, 2026 at 12:18 PM
Note, "some of" are the key words in that sentence, and respect for general competence absolutely does not extend to respect for the public output done under the auspices of the current CEA (eg, below). The hope is only that behind the scenes someone is preventing it from being even worse.
Pessimistically, any readings about tension between opposition & meliorist action on peripheral issues?
I hate to admit it, but I know & respect the competence of some CEA staff. While their complicity should stain their moral & professional reputation, I hope they can make a few things less bad.
I hate to admit it, but I know & respect the competence of some CEA staff. While their complicity should stain their moral & professional reputation, I hope they can make a few things less bad.
January 25, 2026 at 12:09 PM
Pessimistically, any readings about tension between opposition & meliorist action on peripheral issues?
I hate to admit it, but I know & respect the competence of some CEA staff. While their complicity should stain their moral & professional reputation, I hope they can make a few things less bad.
I hate to admit it, but I know & respect the competence of some CEA staff. While their complicity should stain their moral & professional reputation, I hope they can make a few things less bad.
Oh, right, I had been thinking of the Women's Health Initiative RCT, which studied some overlapping hormone questions. An observational longitudinal study like this is OK for what it is, but yeah, I wouldn't trust anything but the coarsest findings on nutrition from this data.
January 22, 2026 at 12:46 PM
Oh, right, I had been thinking of the Women's Health Initiative RCT, which studied some overlapping hormone questions. An observational longitudinal study like this is OK for what it is, but yeah, I wouldn't trust anything but the coarsest findings on nutrition from this data.
Do you have any references on issues with the Nurses Health Study, beyond that particular questionable methodological choice? I have an, uh, personal interest.
January 22, 2026 at 5:50 AM
Do you have any references on issues with the Nurses Health Study, beyond that particular questionable methodological choice? I have an, uh, personal interest.