Dylan Paltra
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dpltr22.bsky.social
Dylan Paltra
@dpltr22.bsky.social
840 followers 510 following 53 posts
PhD Student @Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg I Political Science | Parties 🎉 | Image & Text-as-Data 🌆 | He / Him
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dpltr22.bsky.social
Our results show that the AfD is a key driver behind the elevated levels of affective polarization we observe. (5/7) 🧵
Figure 6 of the article. The predicted values show how influential the AfD’s role is for levels of affective polarization.
December 1, 2025 at 12:07 PM
dpltr22.bsky.social
Looking at the economic and cultural dimensions, we identify the far-right AfD as a “cultural entrepreneur” in Germany, translating divisions into affective polarization. (4/7) 🧵
Figure 4 of the article. The coefficient plot shows how the AfD, as a "cultural entrepreneur," drives levels of affective polarization, beyond the general effect of party polarization on the cultural dimension.
December 1, 2025 at 12:07 PM
dpltr22.bsky.social
We find that party polarization has a significant influence on affective polarization, which has been rising for years. (3/7) 🧵
Figure 2 of the article. The coefficient plot shows how party polarization has a significant influence on affective polarization across different model specifications.
December 1, 2025 at 12:07 PM
dpltr22.bsky.social
Using more than 100 surveys and wordscores from party manifestos spanning 20 years of German state elections, we trace how affective polarization has evolved and how party polarization contributes to it. (2/7) 🧵
Figure 2 of the article. It shows the level of affective polarization in Germany across all states and how it developed over the last 20 years.
December 1, 2025 at 12:07 PM
dpltr22.bsky.social
🚨Publication Alert!
My first first-author publication with @msaeltzer.bsky.social and @pluggedchris.bsky.social is out in @polbehavior.bsky.social, which began as my bachelor's thesis. We study how party polarization shapes affective polarization—with a particularly important role of the AfD. (1/7)🧵
Cover page of the article. "Affective States: Cultural and Affective Polarization in a Multilevel-Multiparty System" by Dylan Paltra, Marius Sältzer and Christian Stecker. "Affective Polarization—the growing mutual dislike among partisan groups—has been identified as a major concern in democracies. Although both economic and cultural ideological divides contribute to ideological polarization, their affective consequences can differ. This paper argues that cultural polarization becomes especially consequential when mobilized by far-right parties. Using data from 116 elections in Germany’s 16 states (1990-2023), we combine more than 550 state-level manifestos with more than 150,000 survey responses to examine how party polarization translates into voter affect. Our analyses show that both economic and cultural polarization increase affective divides, but cultural disagreements fuel hostility only in the presence of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Acting as a cultural entrepreneur, the AfD amplifies the emotional impact of cultural divisions such as immigration, employing affective rhetoric and provoking strong rejection from other parties and voters. These findings highlight the catalytic role of far-right parties in transforming ideological competition into affective polarization."
December 1, 2025 at 12:07 PM
dpltr22.bsky.social
Our results show that the AfD is a key driver behind the elevated levels of affective polarization we observe. (5/7) 🧵
Figure 6 of the article. The predicted values show how crucial the role of the AfD for the effects of party polarization are and how they are a "cultural entrepreneur".
December 1, 2025 at 11:36 AM
dpltr22.bsky.social
Looking at the economic and cultural dimensions, we identify the far right AfD as a “cultural entrepreneur” in Germany translating divisions into affective polarization. (4/7) 🧵
Figure 4 of the article. The coefficient plot shows more specific evidence looking at the different dimensions of the political space, the economic and the cultural dimension.
December 1, 2025 at 11:36 AM
dpltr22.bsky.social
We find that party polarization has a significant influence on affective polarization, which has been rising for years. (3/7) 🧵
Figure 3 of the article. The figure shows a coefficient plot with four different model specifications. It presents evidence for the effects of party polarization on affective polarization as well as the special role the AfD has.
December 1, 2025 at 11:36 AM
dpltr22.bsky.social
Using more than 100 surveys and wordscores from party manifestos across 20 years of German state elections, we trace how affective polarization has evolved and how party polarization contributes to it. (2/7) 🧵
Figure 2 of the article. The figure shows levels of affective polarization across all German states.
December 1, 2025 at 11:36 AM
dpltr22.bsky.social
Excited to be back at my alma mater, the University of Zurich, for the Digital Democracy Workshop! Looking forward to two days of interesting presentations, reconnecting with familiar faces, and meeting new ones.
Thank you very much for hosting me @karstendonnay.bsky.social over the week!
The photo shows the front of the main building of the University of Zurich.
November 13, 2025 at 7:59 AM
dpltr22.bsky.social
Some personal news! 📰

I am very excited to share that I have started a new PhD position with the fantastic @msaeltzer.bsky.social at the University of Oldenburg. I will be working alongside the amazing @alonadolinsky.com and @klingelt.bsky.social in their new CONSTRUCT project. 🧵
A large tower, the meaning building of the Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg is seen behind trees.
September 24, 2025 at 8:39 AM
dpltr22.bsky.social
Thank you, #COMPTEXT2025! ❤️ It was amazing to see familiar faces, meet new ones, and have so many insightful conversations and discussions. Thank you for the great feedback and inspiring presentations! I'm excited about where the field of computational social science is heading!
April 27, 2025 at 3:33 PM
dpltr22.bsky.social
When you use AI to generate a politician in parliament and get a George Michael Impersonator.
A young, blond politician with glasses sitting at a desk.
February 26, 2024 at 12:28 PM