Dave Goldberg (he/him)
@drdavegoldberg.bsky.social
Physicist, writer, liberal, husband and father. Pretty good cook.
Looking at this morning's Inquirer, the lead story starts thusly:
Not your fault, but maybe talk some sense into your editors.
Not your fault, but maybe talk some sense into your editors.
November 5, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Looking at this morning's Inquirer, the lead story starts thusly:
Not your fault, but maybe talk some sense into your editors.
Not your fault, but maybe talk some sense into your editors.
Top story at FoxNews just now.
November 5, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Top story at FoxNews just now.
Early, and it really depends on which towns have reported, but so far, it looks like the Trump conciliating republican sheriff of Bucks County, PA (my ancestral home) is getting the boot.
November 5, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Early, and it really depends on which towns have reported, but so far, it looks like the Trump conciliating republican sheriff of Bucks County, PA (my ancestral home) is getting the boot.
Also this…
October 31, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Also this…
Any guesses?
October 31, 2025 at 9:49 PM
Any guesses?
Just let it go, guys. "Closing the gap" means that Mamdani is still up by 10 with voting already started.
October 27, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Just let it go, guys. "Closing the gap" means that Mamdani is still up by 10 with voting already started.
3/ There are other complications. There's "noise" (unknown campaign/candidate quality) of about 5 points/race, and an incumbency advantage (if the incumbent is running) of about 4 points, but putting it all together, with the 4 new maps, you get this:
October 23, 2025 at 12:58 PM
3/ There are other complications. There's "noise" (unknown campaign/candidate quality) of about 5 points/race, and an incumbency advantage (if the incumbent is running) of about 4 points, but putting it all together, with the 4 new maps, you get this:
This fucking headline from the @washingtonpost.com . It's not a fucking clash when the brownshirts are straight up assaulting Americans engaging in their 1st amendment rights.
Either do your jobs or quit your jobs, you fucking hacks.
Either do your jobs or quit your jobs, you fucking hacks.
October 4, 2025 at 9:08 PM
This fucking headline from the @washingtonpost.com . It's not a fucking clash when the brownshirts are straight up assaulting Americans engaging in their 1st amendment rights.
Either do your jobs or quit your jobs, you fucking hacks.
Either do your jobs or quit your jobs, you fucking hacks.
This is simply not true.
September 20, 2025 at 7:24 PM
This is simply not true.
Happy Silk Song Day to all who celebrate.
September 4, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Happy Silk Song Day to all who celebrate.
This is going well for him, or no?
(Weekly averaged net approval based on public RV/LV pollsters who've reported at least 3 times.)
(Weekly averaged net approval based on public RV/LV pollsters who've reported at least 3 times.)
August 29, 2025 at 9:51 AM
This is going well for him, or no?
(Weekly averaged net approval based on public RV/LV pollsters who've reported at least 3 times.)
(Weekly averaged net approval based on public RV/LV pollsters who've reported at least 3 times.)
Adding that noise, and the needed Dem popular win is down to 2 points. But Dems are going to win by much more than that. In 2018, Dems won by > 8. R's won in Biden's midterm by more than 3, and that was considered a miracle year for the incumbency.
5/7
5/7
August 24, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Adding that noise, and the needed Dem popular win is down to 2 points. But Dems are going to win by much more than that. In 2018, Dems won by > 8. R's won in Biden's midterm by more than 3, and that was considered a miracle year for the incumbency.
5/7
5/7
The presidential and house votes _mostly_ trace one another, and the biggest difference is incumbency advantage, but there's still a random deviation of about 5 points.
4/7
4/7
August 24, 2025 at 6:27 PM
The presidential and house votes _mostly_ trace one another, and the biggest difference is incumbency advantage, but there's still a random deviation of about 5 points.
4/7
4/7
With all of this redistricting escalation, I am getting increasingly confident that Dems will take the House in 2026. Why? Here's a simple "winner take all" analysis of the House lean in each district using Trump's 2024 results as a proxy. Incumbents get a small advantage (~4 points).
1/7
1/7
August 24, 2025 at 6:27 PM
With all of this redistricting escalation, I am getting increasingly confident that Dems will take the House in 2026. Why? Here's a simple "winner take all" analysis of the House lean in each district using Trump's 2024 results as a proxy. Incumbents get a small advantage (~4 points).
1/7
1/7
This is the headline in the Post. If you can't actually confirm that any of this is true from anyone but Trump then what the fuck are you actually doing here?
August 23, 2025 at 12:16 AM
This is the headline in the Post. If you can't actually confirm that any of this is true from anyone but Trump then what the fuck are you actually doing here?
A fun calculation (provided I have my data sources correct). How much do the Dems need to win by nationally (on average) to take the House?
With the old maps (used in 2024), about 1.7%. With the new maps (assuming CA passes) it's only 0.6%.
(If CA doesn't pass, they need about 2.4%, BTW)
With the old maps (used in 2024), about 1.7%. With the new maps (assuming CA passes) it's only 0.6%.
(If CA doesn't pass, they need about 2.4%, BTW)
August 22, 2025 at 8:33 PM
A fun calculation (provided I have my data sources correct). How much do the Dems need to win by nationally (on average) to take the House?
With the old maps (used in 2024), about 1.7%. With the new maps (assuming CA passes) it's only 0.6%.
(If CA doesn't pass, they need about 2.4%, BTW)
With the old maps (used in 2024), about 1.7%. With the new maps (assuming CA passes) it's only 0.6%.
(If CA doesn't pass, they need about 2.4%, BTW)
What an absolute idiot. And he was even (especially?) when he worked for 538. FWIW, here's a trendline of Trump's net approval. It certainly doesn't appear to be pretty gosh-darn good.
August 11, 2025 at 5:37 PM
What an absolute idiot. And he was even (especially?) when he worked for 538. FWIW, here's a trendline of Trump's net approval. It certainly doesn't appear to be pretty gosh-darn good.
Very neutral framing from the hometown paper.
August 11, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Very neutral framing from the hometown paper.
Is this a good net approval trend or no?
August 5, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Is this a good net approval trend or no?
On the one hand, Trump's approval is meaningless. Both he and congressional R's seem unconcerned about how their governing is perceived by the voters perhaps because they never plan on running in an honest election again. On the other hand, his net approval has dropped 20 points(!) since week 1.
July 24, 2025 at 2:57 PM
On the one hand, Trump's approval is meaningless. Both he and congressional R's seem unconcerned about how their governing is perceived by the voters perhaps because they never plan on running in an honest election again. On the other hand, his net approval has dropped 20 points(!) since week 1.
Can you imagine saying this? It might (might!) be true among Republicans, but if it were, that's a pretty standard approval for a Republican president. But here's my estimate of his net approval trendlines based only on RV/LV polls.
July 18, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Can you imagine saying this? It might (might!) be true among Republicans, but if it were, that's a pretty standard approval for a Republican president. But here's my estimate of his net approval trendlines based only on RV/LV polls.
Why in god's name would anyone believe the government BLS's "official" numbers?
July 3, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Why in god's name would anyone believe the government BLS's "official" numbers?
From the treasury website:
July 2, 2025 at 4:01 PM
From the treasury website:
Megan McArdle demands shutting the everloving fuck up forever.
May 20, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Megan McArdle demands shutting the everloving fuck up forever.