DanSternCardinale
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dsterncardinale.bsky.social
DanSternCardinale
@dsterncardinale.bsky.social
300 followers 240 following 540 posts
Biology professor, politics junkie, YIMBY, nerd. Unions FTW. I do anti-bad-science-and-Christian-Nationalism on YouTube: https://youtube.com/@creationmyths
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dsterncardinale.bsky.social
Great thinking, wrong new country bsky.app/profile/kyra...
kyracloudy.bsky.social Kyra Dempsey - Admiral Cloudberg @kyracloudy.bsky.social · 2d
Teaser for my upcoming article (and the answer to my earlier hint).
On the 31st of January 2003, a huge four-engine Ilyushin Il-76 cargo plane crashed just short of the poorly developed airstrip in the town of Baucau, Timor-Leste, killing all six crewmembers. The crash was briefly noted by world news sources but never made headlines, nor would it have been likely to do so, because accidents like it happen all the time. Cargo flights into remote and impoverished warzones on behalf of short-lived paper companies form a dangerous but essential underworld of the global aviation industry, bringing crucial supplies and humanitarian aid into some of the most desperate places on earth, while simultaneously supporting a shadow industry of arms trafficking, human smuggling, tax evasion, and other criminal enterprises. These flights crash with alarming regularity, but almost all of these accidents are never properly investigated and very little is known about them—sometimes basic facts such as the number of people killed, their identities, and even whether the crash happened at all are left up for debate. Due to a fortuitous geopolitical happenstance, the crash in Timor-Leste in 2003 did not meet that fate. The government of the tiny, newly independent island nation instead invited Australia to investigate the cause of the crash and publish a final report, shedding light on the realities of these fly-by-night freight operations, as well as the difficult circumstances and poor decision-making that doomed the six crew of the enormous Ilyushin. The investigation also provided a starting point for me to dig into the history of the owners and operators of the aircraft, in an effort to understand who was responsible for the flight and their possible connections to the broader industry of clandestine cargo. What I found was a confusing maze of shell companies, conflicting records, leases and sub-leases and re-registrations. And by the end, one thing was clear: whoever owned this plane didn’t want to be found.
December 2, 2025 at 4:36 PM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
Winner! bsky.app/profile/kyra...
kyracloudy.bsky.social Kyra Dempsey - Admiral Cloudberg @kyracloudy.bsky.social · 2d
Teaser for my upcoming article (and the answer to my earlier hint).
On the 31st of January 2003, a huge four-engine Ilyushin Il-76 cargo plane crashed just short of the poorly developed airstrip in the town of Baucau, Timor-Leste, killing all six crewmembers. The crash was briefly noted by world news sources but never made headlines, nor would it have been likely to do so, because accidents like it happen all the time. Cargo flights into remote and impoverished warzones on behalf of short-lived paper companies form a dangerous but essential underworld of the global aviation industry, bringing crucial supplies and humanitarian aid into some of the most desperate places on earth, while simultaneously supporting a shadow industry of arms trafficking, human smuggling, tax evasion, and other criminal enterprises. These flights crash with alarming regularity, but almost all of these accidents are never properly investigated and very little is known about them—sometimes basic facts such as the number of people killed, their identities, and even whether the crash happened at all are left up for debate. Due to a fortuitous geopolitical happenstance, the crash in Timor-Leste in 2003 did not meet that fate. The government of the tiny, newly independent island nation instead invited Australia to investigate the cause of the crash and publish a final report, shedding light on the realities of these fly-by-night freight operations, as well as the difficult circumstances and poor decision-making that doomed the six crew of the enormous Ilyushin. The investigation also provided a starting point for me to dig into the history of the owners and operators of the aircraft, in an effort to understand who was responsible for the flight and their possible connections to the broader industry of clandestine cargo. What I found was a confusing maze of shell companies, conflicting records, leases and sub-leases and re-registrations. And by the end, one thing was clear: whoever owned this plane didn’t want to be found.
December 2, 2025 at 4:35 PM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
Remember the Nate Silver “Eric Adams could be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President” thing?
November 22, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Reposted by DanSternCardinale
leahmcelrath.bsky.social
I don’t care if information implicating Democrats is revealed, but I do care if information implicating Trump and his allies is withheld.

It’s impossible not to suspect the latter will be happening, given how strangely and suddenly everything shifted.
November 20, 2025 at 1:32 AM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
Honorable mention for The Hot Zone, The Coming Plague, and And The Band Played On.
November 20, 2025 at 2:15 AM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
Say Nothing, which I know you know, Midnight at Chernobyl, and The Guns of August are probably my top three.
November 20, 2025 at 2:15 AM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
Ah, forgot that one, good call.
November 12, 2025 at 3:37 PM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
Huh. Trying to think...Australia? Seems like there would've been one but I can't recall one. Ireland? Chile?
November 12, 2025 at 4:32 AM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
Hard agree. Ditch him, the 8 cavers, and anyone up in ‘26 who agreed with them didn’t want to actually cast the vote.
November 11, 2025 at 12:03 AM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
Not helping! The public blames Rs, let’s ride that instead of stomping on it, yeah?
November 11, 2025 at 12:02 AM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
5. Not my idea but I’m stealing it: screw it’s go all out. “We learned they were going to destroy the Epstein files so we had to act fast to ensure they’re preserved and released”.

True? False? Who cares, go for it. Play to win.
November 10, 2025 at 11:23 PM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
Riding* in back in point 3, dammit.
November 10, 2025 at 11:19 PM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
4. Alternate play: “we want to release the Epstein files and trump and Mike Johnson wanted to keep the government closed to protect pedophiles. We reopened the government to get the Epstein files out when republicans won’t.”

Honestly, go with that.
November 10, 2025 at 11:18 PM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
3. More people blame Rs, by a wide margin, so lean into that. Always note they could have ended this at any point on their own. Boom, now the Dems are the heroes, rising in to do what Rs wouldn’t.
November 10, 2025 at 11:17 PM
dsterncardinale.bsky.social
2. Given that they did give in, the case now is “Rs want you to pay more for health insurance, and are willing to literally starve people to make that happen. We aren’t sociopaths so we’re voting to keep people from starving.”
November 10, 2025 at 11:15 PM